Jon Newcombe previews Saturday's action from the Six Nations, when England are backed to kick off their campaign with a big win over Wales.
Rugby union betting tips: England vs Wales
3pts England (-30) on the match handicap at 11/10 (BoyleSports)
1pt Marcus Smith last try-scorer at 18/1 (QuinnBet)
1pt Louis Rees-Zammit anytime try-scorer at 4/1 (Coral)
1pt Wales penalty first scoring play at 9/2 (bet365)
- Scroll down for Italy vs Scotland
England vs Wales
- Venue: Twickenham
- Start time: 16:40 (SAT)
- TV: ITV1
While some of what’s been happening in Welsh rugby beggars belief, England are full of belief.
An 11-game winning streak puts them in a great position, confidence-wise, with Saturday’s match looking for all the world like the perfect springboard towards a sustained tilt at a Grand Slam.
In terms of home bankers, this appears to tick every box. Not only are England in great form, with the scalp of the All Blacks included in a clean sweep of victories in the Autumn, but 28/1 outsiders Wales are also virtually at their lowest ebb.
Other than Japan, Wales have failed to beat any opposition since the 2023 Rugby World Cup, their winless run in the Six Nations now stands at 11 matches, and they haven’t won at Allianz Stadium since 2015.
So, it’s not a case of if England win, but how many. And, given the quality of players at their disposal compared to Wales, who are missing Jac Morgan, their talisman and leader and one of only two Lions, England should be able to cover the 28.5 handicap comfortably.
Even if the match is played in wet conditions, England’s dominance in the physical stakes and in the air means they probably won’t have to rely on putting the ball through the hands of the backs to rack up the points.
Lacking much in the way of muscle and grunt, other than strapping 6’4, 16-and-a-half stone centre Eddie James, Wales will look to try and move the ball around and change the point of attack in the hope that they can find chinks in the English defence.
Their attack did show signs of promise in the Autumn, and Louis Rees-Zammit will relish the space he’ll get playing at full-back, which makes him an attractive anytime try-scorer option, especially at 4/1.
As a measure of how poorly the bookies expect Wales to perform, 16 England players are listed in this market before you get to Rees-Zammit and fellow Welsh wing Josh Adams.
Referee Pirre Brousset penalised England 14 times when they last played, the 27-23 win over Argentina in November, and if he is whistle-happy again, a Wales penalty as the first scoring play could be more likely than the 9/2 odds suggest.
Personally, I’d also back Wales to get a couple of consolation tries and for Dan Edwards, who was 100% off the tee in the Autumn, to tag on the extra two points, so over 12.5 points for the visitors is within their reach.
By the same token, England will be disappointed if they don’t get over 40. With the game probably well won by half-time, Marcus Smith and the rest of the ‘Pom Squad’ should wreak havoc.
Smith is almost peerless when it comes to spotting gaps in tiring defences and exploiting them with his pace, and looks excellent value to be the last try-scorer at 18/1.
Rugby union betting tips: Italy vs Scotland
2pts over 46.5 total match points at 10/11 (bet365, BoyleSports)
2pts first half to be highest-scoring at evens (Coral, Ladbrokes)
2pts Jamie Dobie to score a try at 6/5 (General)
1pt Darcy Graham to score the last try at 10/1 (Betfred)
Italy vs Scotland
- Venue: Stadio Olimpico
- Start time: 14:10 (SAT)
- TV: BBC
Given that it was for so long the ‘Battle of the Wooden Spoon’, there’s always the danger of falling into the trap of looking at Italy-Scotland clashes and thinking that a dour, low-scoring game lies ahead. When the teams were at their nadir in the noughties, there was some substance to the negative perception. On only three occasions from 2000 to 2015 did a match between the enemies in blue produce 50 points or more, a return of just 19%, whereas in the last decade, that figure has jumped to 70%.
Both sides possess the ability and the players to attack with intent and score tries; Italy scored more than 100 points for only the fourth time (106), and for the first time since 2003 in last year’s Championship. And while stats aren’t the be-all and end-all, OVER 46.5 POINTS for the match can be backed with a degree of confidence, as long as the forecast poor weather conditions don’t deteriorate too badly.
Scotland have won their opening match in the last five editions of the Championship, whereas Italy haven’t been victorious in round one since 2013. History is against the Azzurri, and head coach Gonzalo Quesada admitted in the build-up that he’d have preferred his team to have been on the road this weekend, away from the expectations that come with being at home.
I can’t find fault with the handicap line of -9.5 for Scotland, so that may be one market to steer clear of. Opting for the FIRST HALF TO BE THE HIGHEST-SCORING might be more prudent, though, given that both teams scored two-thirds of their points in last year’s Championship before the interval.
It’s interesting that Gregor Townsend has gone for a 5-3 bench split, especially with Six Nations rookie Jamie Dobie capable of switching from the wing to scrum-half if needed. Injuries to any of the tight forwards will have a detrimental effect because the backup options on the bench are significantly lower in quality than those starting.
The 1-2-3 front-row axis of Pierre Schoeman, Ewan Ashman and Zander Fagerson hasn’t been seen enough for Scotland’s liking since the World Cup due to various injuries. Other than the Springboks, that trio would be a match for most opposition front-rows, and Scotland will hope to have a solid platform to play from. If so, Ben White and Finn Russell at half-back and Sione Tuipulotu and Huw Jones at centre, have the experience and class to steer Scotland home by one or two scores.
This Six Nations seems to be the season to drop your record try-scorer. First, Fabien Galthie dropped a bombshell by leaving Damien Penaud out of his French squad altogether, and then Gregor Townsend went one better – leaving both of Scotland’s all-time best finishers out of his starting XV for this Saturday’s clash in Rome.
Given the current climate, DARCY GRAHAM will count himself lucky to have made the bench. Duhan van der Merwe, for so long the go-to man in the tryscoring stakes, will be left kicking his heels after being omitted from the matchday 23. So, without those two to back, although Graham is an obvious last tryscorer pick, especially as he’ll have a point to prove, who’s our money going on?
Starting a Six Nations match for the first time, DOBIE will be desperate to repay the faith put in him by Townsend with a try or two. He’s a proper handful, and the stats support the assertion that he’s got a better chance than most of crossing the whitewash, too.
More tries have been scored by Scotland players wearing the No.11 jersey than by any other position (18%) since RWC 2023, while 15% have been scored from the other wing, closely followed by hooker (12%). By contrast, not one No.4 – and there have been eight different names on the back of the jersey in the 24-match spread – has scored a try. For novelty seekers, Scott Cummings is 9/1 to break that duck.
Posted at 15:05 GMT on 05/02/26; updated at 19:15 with Italy vs Scotland selections
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling.
Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
