Jon Newcombe called all three matches spot-on last weekend and now reveals his best bets for Saturday's action in the Six Nations.
Rugby union betting tips: England vs Ireland
3pts Ireland (+11) to win on the handicap at evens (General)
2pts England to win by 1-7pts at 7/2 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power)
2pts under 45.5 total match points at 5/4 (888sport)
1pt Tadhg Furlong to score a try at 16/1 (General)
1pt Jack Conan to score the last try at 33/1 (bet365)
0.5pt a red card in the match at 4/1 (bet365)
- Scroll down for Wales vs Scotland preview and tips
England vs Ireland preview and best bets
- Venue: Twickenham
- Start time: 14:10 GMT
- TV: ITV
England and Ireland have both been castigated for not having a back-up plan when Plan A fails. It was very evident in their respective defeats to Scotland and France. But, for me, England’s Plan A is still stronger than Ireland’s, and I expect them to come through a hard-fought, blood-and-thunder contest with a narrow victory.
Giving Ireland 11.5 points on the handicap may be too much to ask of England, and a WIN BY 1-7 POINTS looks more likely at a nice price. The last two meetings have been won by the home side, England by a point in 2024, after Marcus Smith’s last-gasp drop goal, and Ireland by five at the start of last year’s Championship, while each of the last four clashes in Twickenham have produced fewer than 50 points.
In the last four meetings, it has been very close at half-time, too, with an average of just 4.75 points between the sides. The weather forecast for south-west London is for more rain (never!), so with two accomplished goal kickers on the park in George Ford and Jack Crowley, the teams might look to move the scoreboard along three points at a time before trying to expand their horizons, hence our preference for more penalties than tries despite England’s need to win with a bonus-point to keep their slim title dreams alive.
This latest encounter has the feel of another game played at close quarters, especially as England have enjoyed considerable maul and set-piece success, where a lot of hard yards will need to be won before any tries are scored. England are only averaging two tries per game against Ireland in the last 10 Championship meetings, with 80 percent of those tries scored by backs, predominantly the wingers and the full-back. With Tommy Freeman shifted back to his rightful place on the wing, he’d be as good a bet as any to cross the whitewash for the home side.
But for those of you who like to dabble in the anytime tryscorer market, better value might be had by focusing on Ireland. Nearly half of the 25 tries they’ve scored in this fixture over the past decade have come from the better-priced forwards. Four have come from hookers – Dan Sheehan and Rob Herring – while props and No.8s have contributed three apiece and locks two.
With that in mind, TADHG FURLONG looks overpriced at 16/1 to rumble his way over and score his seventh Test try at some point during the match, while JACK CONAN keeps knocking down the door in an attempt to prove he deserves to start and is a generous 28/1 to be the last tryscorer. Given the game is likely to be very combative, you’d expect the Lions player to come on as a fresh pair of legs and lungs with at least 20 minutes remaining, giving him plenty of time to push forward his claims and add to the try he scored against Italy last weekend.
A bigger margin than 1-7 points might have been expected until Andy Farrell decided to go for the more pragmatic option and select Jack Crowley at 10, instead of Sam Prendergast, as well as bringing four Lions internationals back into his starting line-up.
Any team would be stronger for having Furlong, Tadhg Beirne, Josh van der Flier and Jamison Gibson-Park included. And, on paper, Ireland look just as strong as England, but home advantage, the confidence that still exists in the gameplan despite the Murrayfield debacle, and the fact that Steve Borthwick has picked a specialist outside-centre in Ollie Lawrence, should tip it England’s way.
Of course, nothing is certain in a game as there are so many variables to come into play, including the referee’s interpretation of the laws. However, it would be a surprise if there wasn't a card of some description. The referee has reached into his pocket in each of the last five fixtures, with four yellows and one red issued since 2020, the last time the sin-bin was made redundant in this fixture.
Andrea Piardi takes charge of the latest instalment and the Italian likes to stamp his authority on proceedings, having issued a card in all but one of his last 10 Tests in the middle, with a total of 13 yellows and one red. Unfortunately, the chances of another are reflected by odds of 1/4. A fourth red in six years is 4/1, however, and worth a small go.
Rugby union betting tips: Wales vs Scotland
2pts Scotland (-24) to win on the handicap at 15/8 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power)
2pts Blair Kinghorn to score a try at 2/1 (General)
Wales vs Scotland preview and best bets
- Venue: Principality Stadium
- Start time: 16:40 GMT
- TV: BBC
Just about the only thing consistent about Scotland in the Gregor Townsend era is their frustrating habit of following up a morale-boosting win over England with a bubble-bursting loss. It’s happened in all but one of their last nine Calcutta Cup-winning years.
Facing a Welsh team on its knees, Scotland must surely break that trend and do a number on their beleaguered opponents this weekend. But if the Welsh are to target one game that gives them more hope than any other, even the home fixture against Italy in round five, this would probably be it.
Don’t get me wrong, I am not saying they’ll win, you’d have to be braver than a defender standing in the way of a rampaging Duhan van der Merwe to do that. But a few twists and turns might occur before the Dark Blues get the job done, as this fixture has a habit of producing the unexpected in recent times. Wales should get into double figures again, as they did against a better French team.
In 2024, Scotland almost blew a 27-0 lead with just over one half gone, but eventually limped over the line to win in Wales (by the narrowest of margins) for the first time in 22 years. Last year was almost a carbon copy, with Scotland having an identical advantage before allowing Wales back into it. Their stunning comeback brought them to within one score of Scotland, who just about held on for a 34-29 victory.
The previous eight clashes had been much more sedate on the scoreboard, with each producing fewer than 50 points. But with Wales incapable of keeping opponents at bay and in dire need of a full-time defence coach, this should be fast and frenetic under the closed Principality Stadium roof.
Scotland are generally fast starters, especially so against Wales, so it is worth backing them on the first-half handicap, as well as the match handicap, once those prices emerge. Wales are collecting unwanted records in seemingly every game they play, and Scotland will fancy their chances of beating their all-time biggest win of 28 points, as long as they don’t take their foot off the gas for the third consecutive year.
Wales head coach Steve Tandy, who knows Scotland better than most from his time there as defence coach, has opted to bring in the more muscular Gabe Hamer-Webb for his debut on the wing at the expense of Ellis Mee, no doubt in a bid to combat the physical threat posed by van der Merwe, which could be a fascinating battle in itself.
Van der Merwe has been a peripheral figure for too long for his liking, and both he and returning full-back BLAIR KINGHORN will be desperate to make an impression in a back-three that looks full of running and tries, with Kyle Steyn retaining his place on the right wing. You’d bank on one of that triumvirate, if not two or all three, to cross the whitewash at some point, and Kinghorn represents decent value at 2/1.
Ultimately, Scotland should be relied upon to cover the handicap lines and we'll back them at a nice price to win by 25 points or more. Even if Wales do clear double-figures, this should be within Scotland's capabilities and they can threaten, perhaps even achieve, their biggest-ever win over Wales.
Posted at 16:00 GMT on 19/02/26
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