Rugby World Cup betting tips: Australia v Portugal preview and best bets

Rugby union betting tips: World Cup round four

2pts Portugal +23pts to beat Australia at evens (bet365)

1pt Portugal to beat Australia at 14/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Australia v Portugal

• 1645 BST, Sunday October 1

And still they underestimate PORTUGAL, the European Fijians and everyone’s new-found favourite second team for the way they play with such freedom.

• CLICK HERE to back Portugal with Sky Bet

Os Lobos won plenty of plaudits in losing 28-8 to Wales but there was always a feeling among those who have tracked their progress that it was still an opportunity lost.

Against Georgia, a side they are more familiar with, Portugal had much more belief, and despite a horrible first-half display, they were worthy of an 18-18 draw, if not better.

If they can cut off the unforced errors and play with confidence and intent against a side that looks down on its knees, we could have a major shock on our hands.

Australia tend to have the ball for long periods but Portugal are used to making a lot of tackles and their goal line defence has, for the most part, been excellent.

If things aren’t going Australia’s way, we’re not convinced they have the experience or tactical nous in key positions to turn things around.

Eddie Jones fronted up far better than his team did in addressing the media following the 40-6 shellacking at the hands of Wales. But not even he will be able to talk his way out of this one if Australia lose and fail to automatically qualify for their own World Cup in four years’ time.

• CLICK HERE to back Portugal on the handicap with Sky Bet

Fiji v Georgia

2pts Georgia +8pts on first-half handicap at evens (Sky Bet)

• 1645 BST, Saturday September 30

Typically Fiji have always had to work hard to beat Georgia, the kryptonite to their super attacking powers.

While Fiji have added upfront nous to their wonderful handling skills and Georgia have added more subtlety to their traditional hard-nosed, set-piece approach, this remains the sort of clash of styles and cultures that makes the World Cup such an interesting watch.

Fiji will aim to run the legs off the big Georgians but in matches gone by they’ve had to be patient and wait for the scores to come. Fiji ran out 45-10 winners at the last World Cup but the score at half-time was only 7-3.

A repeat of Georgia’s first-half performance against Portugal, before they fell away badly, should be enough for them to finish within a converted try of Fiji at the break and they're worth taking on the first-half handicap. Also, nearly two weeks has passed since Fiji’s historic 22-15 win against Australia so it may take them time to get up to speed.

As Fiji scored 15 of their points against the Wallabies from penalty goals (68%), kicking the most penalties in a RWC game in their history, and Georgia are more likely to score in threes than fives, 10/1 for more kicked penalties than tries has some appeal.

• CLICK HERE to back Georgia on 1st half handicap

Scotland v Romania

1pt Darcy Graham to score 3+ tries at 21/10 (bet365)

• 2000 BST, Saturday September 30

Romania’s injury-depleted, one-paced plodders look ready to be taken to the cleaners by a Scotland side packed with pace and power.

It is the sort of game tailor-made for jet-heeled duo, Kyle Steyn and DARCY GRAHAM, who have 30 tries between them in 51 Tests.

Scotland have only ever had five hat-trick scorers in World Cups but either one of these two could easily add their names to the list and we'll take Graham to score three or more.

New Zealand v Italy

2pts New Zealand -13pts on first-half handicap at 10/11 (Sky Bet, William Hill, Coral)

1pt New Zealand try first scoring play at 11/10 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

• 2000 BST, Friday September 29

Fans of an older vintage might remember grainy pictures of John Kirwan running rings around the Italian defence in the very first Rugby World Cup match in 1987. Much to Italy’s chagrin, it has become a regular World Cup fixture ever since, the most played match in the pool stages, and one with a recurring theme – a convincing All Blacks win.

The three-time champions have won all five previous matches by an average margin of 60 points with the last meeting ending 76-14. That was in 2007 when Italy came as close as they have ever done to reaching the quarter-finals. Italy have two bonus-point wins against Namibia and Uruguay behind them and another win here would book them that elusive spot in the last eight. To do that this time, they need to win tonight.

So can Kieran Crowley – who won Rugby World Cup 1987 with New Zealand – extend his tenure as Italy coach into the knockout phase of the tournament? We think not. While the margin of victory is expected to be well below the average for this fixture, it is still even too big a leap of faith to back Italy at +28, especially as the All Blacks generally prevent opponents from scoring from lineouts, which is the Azzurri’s richest source of possession when it comes to putting points on the board.

New Zealand never seem to struggle in that area, putting their pre-tournament, Twickenham nightmare against the Springboks to one side. The All Blacks have converted 13 of their 19 entries into the opposition 22 into tries, averaging a competition-high four points per visit after round three. Henry Arundell’s nap-hand of tries for England and a blank in his only appearance to date means Will Jordan is unlikely to come good as our pre-tournament pick to be tournament top try-scorer, but the winger can be expected to be on the end of a number of chances tonight.

It is worth noting that New Zealand have scored the opening try of the match in all 15 previous meetings. New Zealand to score the first try is predictably short so given that two-thirds of matches at this World Cup have featured tries inside the first 10 minutes, it makes sense to look at that market instead as well as the first-half handicap because the All Blacks have not conceded a first-half try at RWC 2023 and Italy have been slow starters in this fixture.

A New Zealand try before 11 minutes and 30 seconds is 10/11 in places while a NEW ZEALAND TRY is 11/10 in the first scoring play market. We'll play the latter, available with several firms, and take the favourites to cover a 13-point handicap in the first 40.

• CLICK HERE to back NZ try first scoring play with Sky Bet

In terms of last try-scorers, if you want to look beyond Jordan and the rest of the back-three and get a double-digit price, the sentimentalists among you might like to consider Sam Whitelock.

If used off the bench, the gnarly lock will surpass Richie McCaw as the most capped All Black in Test history in his 149th match. He trails only Alun Wyn Jones (171) as the most capped player in test rugby and is 33/1 to cap the milestone in style.

• CLICK HERE to back NZ on 1st half handicap with Sky Bet

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