Rugby Union expert Jon Newcombe is back to preview the top tryscorer market for the Six Nations, with selections ranging from 9-2 to 100-1.
Six Nations betting tips: Top tryscorer
3pts Louis Bielle-Biarrey top Six Nations tryscorer at 9/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
2pts Darcy Graham top Six Nations tryscorer at 14/1 (Betfred)
1pt Ollie Sleightholme top Six Nations tryscorer at 25/1 (Boylesports)
1pt Antoine Dupont top Six Nations tryscorer at 18/1 (General)
0.5pt Marcus Smith top Six Nations tryscorer at 100/1 (William Hill)
Until injuring his toe in training on Sunday Damian Penaud had barely put a foot wrong since returning from the illness that ruled him out of France’s triumphant clean sweep of wins in the Autumn Nations Series.
Ten tries in four Champions Cup matches – including a record six in the last game against the Sharks – had set Penaud up nicely to hit the Six Nations running and claim the top tryscorer award for the third time in four years. In 2022, the Bordeaux flyer shared the accolade with Gabin Villière before winning it outright in 2023.
However, it looks certain that the 28-year-old will now miss the opening game of the tournament against Wales on Friday, which could leave him playing catch-up. It’s a sign of how dangerous Penaud is that he’s still second favourite at 6/1 (double the odds he was before the setback) but we’re now looking towards his team-mate and fellow wing, Louis Bielle-Biarrey, to justify his new-found status as market leader (9/2 with Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook).
Thirty-four different players have either been top tryscorer in their own right or shared the accolade in the 25 editions of the Six Nations and just over half (18) of those were wingers. So, looking at the market purely on the basis of probability, Bielle-Biarrey is an obvious first port of call.
Bielle-Biarrey took the opportunity to step into the limelight in Penaud’s absence by scoring in all three of France’s November matches, against Japan, Argentina and New Zealand. He is lightning quick and should have plenty of opportunities presented to him with the way France play.
Dangerous Dupont hard to discount
Antoine Dupont, meanwhile, is as good a bet as any to profit from the law that gives greater protection to scrum-halves on his return from Olympics duty. Whether he’ll have enough tries in him – four is the bare minimum to win it outright – is debatable. Looking back through history, Danny Care is the only number nine to finish top but his three try-tally in 2017 was matched by seven other players.
Last year it was Ireland hooker Dan Sheehan and Scotland’s powerhouse wing, Duhan van der Merwe, who finished joint top on five tries apiece. Sheehan is back fit and firing and seeing as Ireland are likely to turn to their dominant maul for tries, the hooker is worth considering at a best-priced 16/1 ahead of some of his team-mates.
Backing forwards is still a gamble, though, as Sheehan was only the fourth pack member to be top tryscorer, after Imanol Harinordoquy (2004), CJ Stander (2007) and Charles Ollivon (2020). Only Ollivon won the award outright.
Looking back over the last 10 years Ireland have averaged more tries as a team per tournament than any of the other nation. James Lowe (12/1) bagged four tries in last year’s tournament but hasn’t scored for Ireland since. Seeing as he has three in his last two appearances, Mack Hansen looks better value on the other wing at 25/1 (888Sport). His lack of out-and-out gas and injury record counts against him though.
Graham the pick for Scotland
One of the intriguing sub-plots in the Autumn was the little and large battle to become Scotland’s all-time leading tryscorer between Duhan van der Merwe and pocket-rocket, Darcy Graham. Of the two physically very different wingers, Graham was the busier player and, of the two, he’d be our pick (14/1 with Betfred).
Graham can finish off long-range tries but also loves to put his scrum cap-clad head in where it hurts at close quarters. Centre Huw Jones is always good for a few scores, but losing his midfield partner-in-crime, Sione Tuipulotu, to injury may disrupt Scotland’s attacking rhythm.
You have to go back to 2021 to find the last time an England player was properly in the mix to be the Six Nations’ top tryscorer. The now-retired Anthony Watson bagged four that year, one fewer than van der Merwe. England’s wingers tend to get limited ball in time and space but there are few better finishers when it comes to feeding off scraps than Ollie Sleightholme.
Sleightholme and Smith appeal at big prices
Sleightholme has four tries in just five caps and as long as he can stay fit, the Northampton man could be right up there even if he starts off on the bench. Marcus Smith might be worth a punt, too, especially at 100/1, to join Johnny Sexton (2014), James Hook (2010) and Ronan O’Gara (2007) as 10s on the shortlist of fly-half winners. Smith doesn’t lack for confidence, or the pace, to take on the defence and go for the line himself when in the opposition 22.
Of the rest, Italy will look to Ange Capuozzo to score the bulk of their tries. Having lost Louis Lynagh and Paolo Odogwu to injury, Italy need the full-back/wing to take his club form for Toulouse into the Six Nations. Historically, Italy don’t score enough tries to throw up too many candidates, with Mirco Bergamasco the only previous Azzurri winner (tied at the top with Shane Horgan in 2006).
Josh Adams is the shortest priced Welsh player at 75/1 (Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook), which is an indication of just how far Warren Gatland’s team have fallen. Adams ended the 2019 Rugby World Cup in Japan as the top tryscorer for the competition and should still be good for a try or two. But Wales won’t have the front-foot platform up front, or the creativity in the chief playmaker positions, to fashion enough scores for one of their more experienced operators.
Posted at 1340 GMT on 27/01/25
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