Japanese Grand Prix betting tips: F1 preview, picks and analysis
Lando Norris looks primed for a podium finish at Suzuka according to Louis Bollard, who previews the Japanese Grand Prix.
Formula One betting tips: Japanese Grand Prix
3pts Lando Norris for a podium finish at 9/4 (General)
2pts red flag in the race at 11/4 (bet365)
1pt Visa Cash App RB fastest pitstop at 40/1 (bet365)
- Follow Formula One expert Louis Bollard on X
This weekend Formula One makes its way from Australia to Suzuka for an unusually timed Japanese Grand Prix. The race would normally take place as the season comes to a close, but instead this season we'll be racing in the middle of cherry blossom season.
Having two races at the same venue in a short period of time provides a unique betting opportunity. With there being only nine grands prix since we last raced in Suzuka, we have a strong form line to go off which is why I will be backing history to repeat itself with LANDO NORRIS finishing on the podium.
It was in that race that McLaren showed themselves to be the class of the field behind the dominant Max Verstappen. The high speed, sweeping nature of the track played to the car's strengths and I would expect that trend to continue. Norris was able to finish within 20 seconds of Verstappen, beating Charles Leclerc in the lead Ferrari by 23 seconds.
Despite Ferrari's impressive start to the season, with the characteristics of the Japanese track I would have McLaren ahead of them this weekend and while Oscar Piastri continues to impress, he is still lacking race pace compared to the more experienced Norris hence the pair swapping places in the race in Australia.
Norris clearly got the better of his teammate on race day in Suzuka last season despite Piastri qualifying ahead of him and at 2/1 and bigger, he's a cracking bet to finishing in the top three.
Seeing red...
Death, taxes and there being a risk of rain in Suzuka. The changing of the season from Autumn to spring of the Japan race has not lessened the chance of rain, with it currently forecast for Sunday afternoon.
Suzuka in the rain is an especially dangerous venue considering the high-speed nature of the circuit. We have raced here twice since the Covid pandemic and saw the red flag waved in 2022 after Carlos Sainz crashed on a wet opening lap.
Suzuka suffers from poor visibility when it rains which can lead to the medical helicopter being unable to take off, and if that was to be the case, the red flag would be rightly waved. There's value in the 11/4 available.
Cash in on fast pitstop
Yuko Tsunoda comes to his home race on a high after a strong Australian Grand Prix where he dominated his teammate, Daniel Ricciardo. It is not on the track where I will be backing them, however, but in the pits.
VISA CASH APP RB have significantly increased in price each weekend to have the fastest pitstop and are now at an easy-to-back 40/1, double what we took last time out in Melbourne.
The team posted a strong pitstop time in Bahrain which was only 0.11 seconds off top and given their record with this statistic in the past, I'm happy to chance them again this weekend at the prices.
Other drivers' chances
Max Verstappen
Will be keen to bounce back after the mechanical issue in Melbourne. Clear favourite on a track that will suit but comes here in a less dominant car than he had nine races ago and may have rain to navigate a wet race.
Sergio Perez
Had an embarrassing performance last time out in Japan and has shown he is still inconsistent. Track will suit but door is open for others to chase his teammate home. Has a poor record in wet conditions.
Charles Leclerc
Will be happy with the team's progress over the winter but this will be the acid test on a track they have struggled with. Very closely matched with his teammate at the moment.
Lewis Hamilton
Is not happy with the current car and looks like his teammate has the better of him. The car looks like it will hate this track, so could find himself at the bottom end of the points.
Guanyu Zhou
Car has the pace to compete for points, but issues with their pitstops mean you can't have faith. If they avoid pitstop issues, they can have a run at the points.
Posted at 1000 BST on 04/03/24
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