Louis Bollard is back to reassess the Las Vegas Grand Prix following a qualifying session that provided a 100/30 winner.
F1 betting tips: Las Vegas Grand Prix
3pts Alex Albon to finish in the points at 11/2 (betway, BetVictor)
1pt Charles Leclerc to finish on the podium at 10/1 (General)
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Qualifying saw the lesser spotted full wet tyre being put to use in what Nico Hulkenberg dubbed the "lowest ever grip conditions" he'd faced. It was a miracle that only one accident occurred with ALEX ALBON binning it at the final corner while his teammate managed to qualify P3.
Williams have been confident about this race for a while and this poor qualifying has given us a backable price on Albon. With overtaking possible and managing tyre graining being key, qualifying is not too important as we've seen many cars come through the field in the two previous runnings of this race.
Carlos Sainz proved the car's true pace and is a genuine podium contender. With that pace in the car, Albon can recover to a points finish at a big price.
Forza Ferrari
It was a disaster for Ferrari after a mix up for Lewis Hamilton, and CHARLES LECLERC struggling in wet conditions. The Monegasque driver had been confident in the dry and did clarify after qualifying that the wet weather was the problem, not the car.
Ferrari have shown leading pace this weekend and have a great record here. Leclerc can get in the mix with the leaders and Hamilton can challenge for a points finish, albeit the latter has been left out of the staking plan.
Pre-Qualifying selections update
George Russell managed to qualify P4 despite having a power steering issue; he may have been closer to pole had he not had the issue. His price has since drifted to 14/1, which is an overreaction given qualifying is less important and Russell will get his preferred conditions tomorrow. 14/1 is still value.
As for the Mercedes Dual Forecast, Kimi Antonelli got unlucky having looked strong in the wet conditions. It will be a miracle should he find his way from the back to front.
Pierre Gasly got into Q3 giving us a 100/30 winner, with his price for points shortening to 13/8 from an advised 7/2. If you haven't already backed Gasly pre-qualifying, I would advise leaving him out at this price.
Posted at 1405 GMT on 22/11/25
Previously advised (prior to qualifying)
3pts George Russell to win the Las Vegas Grand Prix at 9/2 (General)
1.5pts Pierre Gasly points finish at 7/2 (William Hill)
1pt Mercedes dual-forecast at 11/1 (bet365)
1pt Pierre Gasly to reach Q3 at 10/3 (bet365)
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Lando Norris has stamped his authority on the championship battle after picking up maximum points in the last two races while his rivals have struggled, but Las Vegas will be the biggest test of the remaining three races for the championship-winning McLaren.
McLaren's record at this venue is abysmal by their high standards with both drivers exiting in Q1 in 2023, and neither managing to finish in the top five last year. The car's philosophy of being gentle on its tyres and excelling in warm conditions comes back to bite them. This low deg, low grip and low temperature track will allow other teams to beat the McLaren's on merit.
Ferrari have a strong record here and have drifted to an attractive price, but their performances on street circuits (Baku and Singapore) are unforgivable and it's hard to see them replicating their previous form here given the 2025 car is completely different to the 2024 model.
Instead, I'm backing a repeat of last year with GEORGE RUSSELL earning the vote. Russell was dominant here last year as Mercedes secured a 1-2 after an excellent comeback drive from Lewis Hamilton.
From what we've seen in this regulation era, the Mercedes becomes top of the class once certain criteria are met. Cold temperatures, low grip surface and slow speed corners. These conditions were met when Russell won in Montreal and two of the conditions were met when he dominated in Singapore. This weekend all three conditions will be met and he can repeat his dominance from last year.
The Mercedes struggles in hot conditions as it overheats its tyres but the opposite is required here with track temperature under 18c, the coldest of the season. Being a street track, grip is inherently low here aligning with other weekends that Russell has dominated.
While Kimi Antonelli has rapidly improved in the second half of the year, to be able to beat Russell on merit in the last two, the form on street tracks is still with Russell. Antonelli is still a contender this weekend and I will be backing MERCEDES DUAL FORECAST using Bet Builder. We have been waiting for Antonelli to contend for a race win as per our pre-season selections. This is our best chance.
The great Gasly
Two weeks ago Alpine looked like a team which had completely given up on this season, but PIERRE GASLY managed to salvage a points finish on a track he has always gone well at in Interlagos. While I don't expect the car to have gained performance, Gasly has proved that he can wrangle the car to a respectable finish if he gets his conditions, which he will this weekend.
Gasly has the most eye-catching form line in Las Vegas, having qualified P5 and P3 in an Alpine in the last two years respectively, way overperforming expectations. The Alpine-Gasly combination excels at the Las Vegas demands. With previous form lines thrown out the window at this track, Gasly is value to qualify strongly and turn it into a points finish.
Other leading chances
Lando Norris
Has one hand on the trophy. Only focus will be on his teammate and not getting into trouble. Car has a terrible record here and he is up against it with others in the mix for the win. Still driving excellently.
Oscar Piastri
Still to recapture his form from earlier in the season. Similar to his teammate that he has never had a car to contend at the front here. Perhaps he needs this non-conventional weekend in order to shake things up as the final two races look plain sailing for McLaren, so this is his biggest chance to gain points on his teammate, but I won't be betting on it.
Max Verstappen
Won here in 2023 and won the title here in 2024 so has good memories despite car struggling last year. They have made progress in low drag tracks since the summer break so could be stronger than last year. Will excel if it rains and hoping for a double McLaren DNF to keep his championship alive.
Lewis Hamilton
Has drifted to an interesting price but I've just about left him out of the staking plan. Ferrari has strong record here but need to iron out problems they've faced on street tracks this season. Stellar drive here in 2024 to recover from 10th to 2nd so enjoys the track. One to watch in practice.
Ollie Bearman
Another excellent drive in Interlagos to pick up a haul of points to help our antepost selections. Is deserved favourite for best of the rest but this track can shuffle the order. Will be rooting for him to pick up some points but may need some luck. Looks like he will have an easier time at the final two races rather than here.
Posted at 1405 BST on 20/11/25
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