Louis Bollard made a profitable start to the year in Melbourne and our F1 expert now has four selections for the Chinese Grand Prix.
F1 betting tips: Chinese Grand Prix
2pts e.w. Kimi Antonelli to win the race at 6/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
2pts Gabriel Bortoleto to finish in the points at 2/1 (Betfred, BetVictor)
2pts Nico Hulkenberg to finish in the points at 2/1 (Betfred, BetVictor)
1pt Audi for a double points finish at 8/1 (Betfred)
- Follow Formula One expert Louis Bollard on X
Formula One higher-ups will be relatively satisfied with how the Melbourne GP played our with regard to the 2026 regulations. We had 16 cars complete the race and 120 overtakes (over double the 2025 number).
The caveat in these cases is the massive gaps between the cars and that overtaking as a whole is essentially faked through electricity with similarities made to using mushrooms in Mario Kart to pass. Max Verstappen went a step further, claiming that he has replaced his racing simulator with a Nintendo Switch in between races.
Melbourne was in theory the fourth worst track in terms of energy management, where as Shanghai is the fourth best. We should see the cars being able to charge the battery better this weekend but it remains to be seen how this will impact racing, with it also being a sprint weekend to make things even more complicated.
Formula One have committed to not changing anything until after this weekend so they can evaluate racing on two extreme tracks in terms of energy management. This provides betting opportunities based on Melbourne performance data.
Magnificent Mercedes
The sandbags came off for qualifying last weekend with both George Russell and KIMI ANTONELLI dominating the field in 2014 Mercedes-esque style. While Ferrari were able to challenge early in the race, Mercedes had far superior race pace.
Digging into the data, Antonelli had the best race pace overall as he managed to close the gap to his teammate from 10 seconds at the VSC restart down three seconds at the end. This was particularly impressive given he crashed his car in FP3 and was not running an optimal set up.
While Ferrari still may challenge this weekend, I expect the Mercedes to get the better of things over the race distance and Antonelli won't be as disrespected in the betting market going forward.
Awesome Audi
While Haas lead the midfield battle, the standout team performance was AUDI who had the strongest race pace of the midfield (0.2 seconds per lap better than Ollie Bearman), mighty impressive for this new power unit.
NICO HULKENBERG failed to take the start of the race for mechanical reasons so reliability remains a concerns but GABRIEL BORTOLETO was the star of the midfield.
This week again the top eight should be clear of the midfield but there is high potential for reliability issues, potentially opening up more places for points and even into the top six. Audi, Racing Bulls and Haas look set to fill these spots as other teams continue to struggle.
The massive prices of 22/1 available (500/1 for the double) for the Audi drivers to make the top six are worthy of consideration too.
Other drivers' chances
Lewis Hamilton
Should continue to make excellent starts, and will be planning to be leading the opening lap given he can qualify anywhere in the top five as the longer run to turn one helps them. Won the sprint here last year so will hope he has give fans something to shout about. Performed better over the race distance than his teammate last time out as he continues to enjoy these lighter, nimbler cars. Strong podium chance.
Max Verstappen
Excellent recovery drive after Q1 exit. Is in the hunt for the podium on the car's ability and should have the McLarens covered. Reliability is a concern though.
Oscar Piastri
Looked to have the better of his teammate all weekend until he crashed on the way to the grid. Car looks in a bit of a no man's land with his teammate finishing 51 seconds off the lead and fighting the Red Bull who started at the back. Hard to see them challenging for the podium but be looks more comfortable than his teammate.
Williams (Alex Albon and Carlos Sainz)
Car is 28kgs overweight. It is not going to compete for points until that is sorted. Races in the Middle East being cancelled can only be a positive for them as they put their car on the diet.
Posted at 10:55 GMT on 12/03/26
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
