Haas can make a run at the points in the opening grand prix of a season which looks set to belong to Mercedes.
F1 betting tips: Australian Grand Prix
2pts Ollie Bearman to finish in the points at 19/10 (Star Sports)
2pts Esteban Ocon to finish in the points at 19/10 (Star Sports)
1pt Haas for a double points finish at 6/1 (General)
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We've now seen the potential of each 2026 car being pushed to the limit and it's clear as day that Mercedes held back in testing. While their long run pace did show positive signs on Friday, the sheer dominance over one lap was more than expected, demonstrated by George Russell sailing to pole position and Kimi Antonelli easily joining him on the front row despite an interrupted session.
Mercedes may make light work of the general 4/7 available on them for them for the title. Backing this would at least making watch the unchallenged dominance easier to watch. While this track puts the highest strain on the engine and therefore benefits Mercedes the most, the gap over one lap is significant and expected to be even greater on high fuel. It's no wonder they're hardening all the time.
Heroic Haas
Ferrari engines have underperformed on their Bahrain promise so far, but still expect them to make up places off the line as their smaller turbo requires less time to spool up on the start line. Other larger turbo engine cars will struggle to get maximum power off the line and we should see a repeat of the excellent starts made by Ferrari powered cars.
This has been factored into Charles Leclerc's price and he may be able to challenge for the lead into T1, but my preferred angle is to back both Haas drivers, OLLIE BEARMAN and ESTEBAN OCON to capitalise and bring home points.
Haas were out-qualified by both Audis and Racing Bulls, who look like the only realistic competition for points as Williams struggles with being overweight and the Alpine struggles in general.
Haas has shown better reliability than both the Audi and Racing Bulls in testing which will benefit them in what could be a race of attrition filled with retirements. We've already seen one of the Audis have a failure and fail to take part in Q3.
Haas can jump some of the rivals off the line and benefit from any reliability issues to score points.
Other drivers' and team chances
Kimi Antonelli
Was a strong qualifying performance considering his crash in FP3 and messy session. Completed qualifying with a non-optimal setup as his car was only rebuilt in the final minutes of Q1 and he still had damaged parts on his car. All this considered missing out to his teammate by three tenths was a very positive result. Lack of time to calibrate the ride height is a worry for the skid block though. Expect Leclerc to jump him off the line but Antonelli to regain the position.
Max Verstappen
Really hates these cars. Made a tongue in a cheek remark about driving a shopping trolley if he had to. Driver error crash at the first corner of his first timed lap. The least confident you'd be in eight years of him winning the teammate battle. Coming from the back will be plagued with more danger than in recent years.
Oscar Piastri
Solid performance getting the better of his teammate so far this weekend. Car looks globally worse than Mercedes but expect them to make progress in the season. Podium chance but won't get close to the works team.
Aston Martin
Car has been deemed a health hazard that may cause irreversible nerve damage to the drivers after 10 minutes of driving due to vibrations. That has to be the worst sentence I've ever written about an F1 car. Expect them to retire very early or not start the race.
Cadillac
The start to the F1 journey for the newest team has been a positive one despite being the slowest on track. They easily qualified within 107% time so no doubt they will be able to race. Doubtful that they can compete with anyone except Aston Martin and will probably be lapped multiple times by the Mercedes but in a race of attrition, reliability can be key. This will be their best chance for points all year as other cars blow a gasket.
Posted at 11:40 GMT on 07/12/25
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