Andy Schooler previews the US Open men’s singles – is it finally time for a big-priced Grand Slam winner?
Tennis betting tips: US Open men's singles
1pt e.w. Felix Auger-Aliassime at 28/1 (General - 30/1 StarSports)
1pt e.w. Frances Tiafoe at 66/1 (bet365 - 80/1 QuinnBet, 10Bet)
US Open – men' singles
- Flushing Meadows, New York, USA (outdoor hard)
A quick tennis history lesson.
When Rafael Nadal won his maiden Grand Slam title in 2005, he started a run which saw the ‘Big Four’ of Nadal, Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray claim 34 of 35 Grand Slam titles over a nine-year period.
Stan Wawrinka proved something of a disruptor in the mid-2010s before another run of 13 for the Big Four.
More recently, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz have won 10 of the last 11 Slams.
In short, big-priced winners have been hard to come by at this level of the men’s game over the past 20 years.
Wawrinka certainly delivered on that front, although it should be noted he was only around the 16/1 when he won here in New York in 2016 – this year he plays the final Slam of his career as a late wild card.
Perhaps the most famous upset of the period was at the 2014 US Open when Marin Cilic delivered a serving masterclass to lift the trophy having been 100/1 at the start of the tournament.
Now, I’m not going as far as suggesting another triple-figure champion but I will say this looks one of the most open Grand Slams since a teenage Nadal won the first of his 14 French Open crowns.
There are two big reasons for that. One – world number one Sinner is absent with a knee injury. And two – Alcaraz will be playing his first tournament in four months following a wrist issue.
Despite such a lengthy absence, Alcaraz is chalked up as the favourite but at no bigger than 13/5, he simply has to be taken on.
There’s almost sure to be rustiness given his lack of matchplay, while even the man himself must be slightly wary of what is widely regarded as the worst joint for a tennis player to injure.
The Spaniard could have done with a bit of help from the draw but that’s not really happened.
Roman Safiullin will be no pushover in round one, while Jenson Brooksby (a potential second-round foe) is the sort of player who makes you hit a lot of balls.
Tommy Paul has tested Alcaraz fully in the past, while this quarter also features the in-form Ben Shelton and Arthur Fils – more on them later.
Basically, there’s no way I can back Alcaraz here. If he wins, so be it, but I don’t think it’s going to happen.
Neither am I taken by the second favourite, Alex Zverev.
Having finally shown he’s capable of winning at this level by capturing the French Open title in June, the German is going off at shorter prices these days.
However, I’m surprised that he’s at 100/30 here – that’s shorter than in Cincinnati a couple of weeks ago where there was no Alcaraz. In the end, he disappointed, as was the case at his other warm-up event in Montreal.
Defeats to Tallon Griekspoor and Tommy Paul hardly inspire confidence and it should also be remembered that while he had a pretty strong record in Cincy, it’s not as good here. Zverev did make the final in 2020 but he’s only made one other semi-final in his 10 previous visits.
He also has the added pressure of now being the top seed for the first time at a Slam. Yes, he could win but the price isn’t right for me.
The only other player not available at a double-figure price is Novak Djokovic.
Maybe the stars have aligned for a player who hasn’t won at this level for three years now.
Even at the age of 39, the Serb continues to chase what would be a record-breaking 25th Grand Slam title and in the three years since he defeated Daniil Medvedev at the 2023 US Open he’s been there or thereabouts more often than not.
In fact, in the 11 Slams since that success, Djokovic has made the semis or better on eight occasions. In the nine completed defeats (he had to quit twice), he’s lost to Sinner or Alcaraz seven times.
With no Sinner here and a strong argument to be made for Alcaraz not being around for a possible semi-final clash, this has to be considered a great chance for the Serb, potentially his last big one.
I'm tempted but am put off by what he said after his recent defeat in Cincinnati to Thiago Agustin Tirante.
Djokovic was clearly under the weather that day and afterwards revealed: “It's just a condition that I have, health-wise, that has been bothering me for the past couple of years.
"(It causes) a lot of issues, especially when it is humid and it is hot.”
Of course, heat and humidity have long been factors to deal with at this event. Throw in the fact that physical issues have been a regular feature for Djokovic in his late 30s and I can’t back him at 7/1.
So, it’s back to my original point that this looks like a tournament where we really could get a winner from further down the market.
Prior to Thursday’s draw, I was keeping on eye out for two players from the ‘second tier’ of players, namely Arthur Fils and Ben Shelton, winners of the two big warm-up events in Cincinnati and Montreal.
Clearly both remain in with a chance but they’ve ended up in the same section of the draw and could meet in the last 16.
This is also the same quarter as Alcaraz, while their first weeks look potential minefields with the likes of Hubert Hurkacz and Cam Norrie lurking for Shelton, while Fils may have to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas, Tomas Machac and Jiri Lehecka just to reach round four.
Yes, both men have the ability and form to see off those opponents but this is a tournament where it can really pay to save energy in week one – the conditions can be tough, and there’s also cumulative fatigue to consider at this time of the season.
While I wouldn’t put people off backing them, that draw makes them less attractive to me and I’ll look elsewhere.
Some will look at Rafael Jodar, one of the stories of the season, whose rise up the rankings has been rapid. Outside the top 100 in March, he’s now at 13 in the ATP list.
The Spaniard remains in good form, having recently been to the Washington final and the Montreal semis during the summer hardcourt swing.
However, what isn’t mentioned too often is he’s just 1-5 against top-10 players (and 4-7 vs the top 20). Four of those five defeats have come in straight sets.
Up in the top quarter with Zverev, Jodar might get lucky but few players ever win a Slam without facing a top-10 star and that stat is off-putting for me.
Let’s turn instead to the third quarter, that of Djokovic.
Former champion Daniil Medvedev is also here but he’s gone 1-3 on the hardcourts in recent weeks and has last seen ranting in Winston-Salem about ‘maybe I should start a career in pickleball’. It’s fair to say confidence doesn’t appear high right now.
The player who looks overpriced here is FRANCES TIAFOE.
The American absolutely loves playing at the US Open where he’s made the semis in two of the last four years, as well as one quarter-final.
He’s a real showman and enjoys using the patriotic support of the Flushing Meadows crowd to his advantage.
Crucially, he’s just been to the final in Cincinnati so form is good and having had a cyst removed from his hand (before that run), he’s likely happy to know that issue is now behind him.
Tiafoe looks well drawn with Q3 providing him with the chance of another deep run and I’m happy to take a punt on the affable American, who is a standout 80/1 with some smaller firms. Anything 50/1 and upwards looks good.
I’m also going to roll the dice a bit with FELIX AUGER-ALIASSIME.
The Canadian in seeded third but is out at 28/1, a price which certainly has potential.
The second quarter looks arguably the weakest of the four and is a section where FAA could take advantage.
He’s been to the semi-finals here twice before, last year beating Zverev en route to a four-set defeat to Sinner.
While he wasn’t fit at the Australian Open, his Grand Slam performances this season have been decent with quarter-final runs at Roland Garros and Wimbledon, where he lost in a final-set tie-break to Djokovic after more than five hours of play.
Admittedly, a recent injury issue which forced him to miss Montreal is a concern, as is his sometimes iffy Slam record – he has lost in the first round on too many occasions for a player of his ability.
However, Auger-Aliassime is very tough to beat when his serve is in the groove and he should get some help from the Laykold courts on that front. Organisers aim to set them up as medium-fast and they are usually quicker than average, albeit not super slick.
Taylor Fritz is the favourite to emerge from this section but I remain wary of his issues with knee tendinitis – he’s often struggled over the past year and while he won the title in Washington recently, it should not be forgotten how he was hindered at Wimbledon just a few weeks before when he simply wasn’t able to compete physically with Zverev.
FAA is more than twice the price and worth a swing.
Posted 16:10 BST on 28/08/2026
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