Andy Schooler previews the US Open men’s singles which gets under way at Flushing Meadows in New York on Sunday.
Tennis betting tips: US Open men's singles
1pt e.w. Alex Zverev at 25/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt e.w. Ben Shelton at 25/1 (General)
0.5pt Alexander Bublik to win quarter one at 18/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Karen Khachanov to win quarter two at 10/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power)
US Open – men's singles
- Flushing Meadows, New York, USA (outdoor hard)
Unless you like backing the favourites, the men’s Grand Slams have been a barren wasteland for punters over the past couple of seasons.
To be fair, Jannik Sinner was around the 13/2 mark when he won the 2024 Australian Open – I remember because we had him in this column! – but since then it’s been the jollies delivering.
Those favourites have been (and remain) Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, who have now won the last seven Grand Slam titles between them. The last two finals have seen the pair face off and, frankly, it would be no surprise at all were that to happen again in New York in just over two weeks’ time.
They’ve now been the best two players in the world for some time, even a controversial three-month drugs ban for Sinner failing to break the duopoly.
Still, my long-standing view has always been to seek out the value.
Occasionally, there’s still value in backing a favourite, but I don’t see that here, especially given Sinner’s recent illness – more on that below.
So, I’m going to break things down, quarter by quarter, to see if there are any prices worth backing.
Quarter one
Top seed, world number one, defending champion – Jannik Sinner heads the draw and, if he’s fully fit, I don’t see him getting beaten.
But that word ‘if’ is key.
Given he’s only a shade of odds-against, I’ve little interest in backing a player who could barely stand up the last time he was on a match court – and that was only on Monday when he was forced to quit the Cincinnati Open final due to illness.
Now, with Sinner not on Sunday’s order of play – the tournament is scheduled for 15 days for the first time this year – he’ll have at least a week between matches and I think it’s fair to say most common viruses have probably passed through over such a period.
The early signs appear good.
After two days of rest, Sinner hit the practice courts at Flushing Meadows on Thursday after which coach Simone Vagnozzi issued a positive update.
“We are really happy because he needed two days of rest after Cincinnati,” he said. “It was two weeks, tough condition, it’s hot there and humid, so with a virus and everything…
“Today was the first time (practising). It was just to try the condition of the court. The ball, there’s a lot of difference here than Cincinnati. For sure, he likes it more here than Cincinnati, so tomorrow will be maybe more match-day, trying something on the match. Today was just feeling the ball.”
The comments about the court and balls is worth dwelling on slightly – Cincinnati is among the quicker tour venues with the ball bouncing fairly high. In New York, they move onto a Laykold surface and use a Wilson ball. These are usually still relatively quick conditions but not as fast as those found in Ohio.
In short, Sinner will probably be just fine but probably isn’t cutting it for me when it comes to backing an 11/10 shot, especially given hot and humid conditions will again be in play – the sort of factor which could effect a body not in peak shape.
In seeding terms, Jack Draper is considered the next cab off the rank in this section.
The Briton made a big breakthrough here 12 months ago where his big serve, big forehand game took him all the way to the semi-finals.
He’s since improved further, winning his first Masters 1000 tournament in Indian Wells earlier in the year, but the last few months haven’t been plain sailing.
After a shock Roland Garros loss came a second-round exit at Wimbledon and then a withdrawal – due to a left-arm injury – from the warm-up events in Toronto and Cincinnati.
That means Draper comes in here without having played singles since Wimbledon.
It’s hard to be confident about him repeating last year’s results here and I see no value in this price at all.
Maybe Gabriel Diallo could be the one to upset Draper in round three – the Canadian has delivered some impressive results in recent months, winning his first ATP title in Den Bosch and reaching the last eight in Madrid.
However, he’s not won back-to-back matches since Mallorca and a 3-9 record against top-20 players is something of a concern in a field of this quality and depth.
Instead, consider ALEXANDER BUBLIK at a whopping price.
The Kazakh has slipped off the radar of late due to the fact he didn’t play in either of the Masters events leading into this tournament.
While no official explanation has been given for that, the fact the withdrawals came straight after he had won back-to-back claycourt titles in Europe suggest injury may not have been behind the decision.
OK, as a result Bublik does arrive relatively cold, certainly in terms of hardcourt tennis, but he’s also currently on a run which has seen him win 22 of his last 25 matches, while he’s claimed the title at three of his last four tournaments.
That run includes wins over Alex de Minaur and the aforementioned Draper at Roland Garros, plus Sinner on the grass of Halle.
It’s been widely reported that his winning run was sparked by a trip to Las Vegas and I would not be at all surprised if Bublik felt taking a couple of weeks off and doing stuff he wants – he was recently spotted at a big football match in Russia – was good enough preparation for him.
You never know what you will get with Bublik and he may well lose to Marin Cilic in the first round, but the prices on offer about him appear a tad disrespectful given what he’s achieved in recent months.
Quarter two
There are two I like in this section of the draw.
First of all, ALEX ZVEREV will be happy to be in here.
We backed him in this column for the Cincinnati Open only for him to be laid low by a virus – probably the same one as Sinner – which gave him little chance in his semi-final against Alcaraz.
That defeat saw his winning head-to-head record against the Spaniard wiped out, although he remains up 5-3 against Alcaraz on hardcourts.
Zverev does still lead Sinner 4-3 so this is a player who is able to compete against the very best.
His problem has been getting over the line in the biggest matches.
He’s now lost three Grand Slam finals and remains without a major title. Many argue he is still haunted by losing the 2020 final here when he led Dominic Thiem by two sets to love and then failed to get over the line in one of the most nervy final sets you’ll ever see, having led 5-3.
All the German can do is keep putting himself in a position to contend and that’s something he’s managed to do fairly often.
In his three return visits since that agonising defeat, Zverev has made the semis once and quarter-finals twice.
As long as there are no lingering effects from that Cincinnati illness, I’d expect Zverev to handle the often-brutal conditions well – he’s one of the fittest ATP players – and his strong serve and excellent backhand should help him contend once more.
The other player worth a mention in Q2 is KAREN KHACHANOV, who looks a big price given his recent form.
He made the final in Toronto before losing in a final-set breaker to Ben Shelton.
As a result of that run, he comes in here as the ninth seed yet can be backed at 150/1 for the title.
This is a venue at which he’s performed well in the past, reaching the semi-finals in 2022 which was the year he felled Nick Kyrgios when the Aussie was in red-hot form.
Khachanov is one of those players who looks the real deal when he’s in the groove and so could be worth siding with as an alternative or back-up to Zverev.
Quarter three
Taylor Fritz is the highest seed in this quarter but Novak Djokovic is the man the bookies fear the most.
The Serb has played in 10 US Open finals, winning four of them, the last in 2023. However, that success remains the most recent of his 24 Grand Slam titles and, at the age of 38, time is surely running out for Djokovic to set an all-time record of 25 major wins.
Djokovic’s form – and physical condition – is hard to judge these days due to lack of activity.
He’s not played since Wimbledon where he was certainly troubled by a hip/groin problem.
What we do know is that Djokovic is targeting the Slams almost exclusively these days and so far this season he’s done pretty well, reaching the semis at all three such tournaments.
Injury got the better of him in Australia before Sinner proved too good at both the French Open and Wimbledon.
That’s probably a fair reflection of where Djokovic is at right now – still a very good player but a little below both his standards of the past and the sport’s current elite.
It should be remembered that he also lost to Alcaraz in last year’s Wimbledon final and while his gold medal at the following Olympic Games must still give him hope that one last Slam is still left in him, the fact is that event was played in the best-of-three format which is much easier on the body.
I wouldn’t rule out Djokovic here but I do think he will likely need some outside help. Perhaps he’s got in in the shape of that Sinner virus but he may also need an early Alcaraz defeat.
Rather than back Djokovic at 16/1 for the title, my preference here would be to try to find a player to come through the quarter at decent odds.
The aforementioned Fritz will hope to be that player but last year’s runner-up wasn’t at his best in recent warm-up events and I’d rather take him on.
Sebastian Korda has looked in decent nick in Winston-Salem this week given his recent lay-off but you’d have to be concerned about his physical fitness over best-of-five given his general lack of matches of late.
Holger Rune has shown some flashes of his best in recent times but I find it hard to get away from Frances Tiafoe’s US Open record.
The American was semi-finalist here last year and in 2022, while he made the quarter-finals in 2023.
‘Big Foe’ is a showman who really feeds off the patriotic support he receives here, especially during the boisterous night sessions for which this tournament is famous.
He’s spoken before about how he’s inspired here like nowhere else on tour. And maybe that can lift him after some disappointing, albeit far from disastrous results in recent weeks.
As a result, his price is 10/1 to win the quarter which will be of interest to some, I have no doubt.
Quarter four
Carlos Alcaraz is the hot favourite to progress to the semis from this section and the 2022 champion may well do so.
However, I’ve written before about how he tends to have some mid-match dips and while he’s usually able to overcome these, they rarely inspire confidence.
Of course, Alcaraz is still an outstanding player and his top level is arguably the highest out there. But I do feel that lack of consistency can make him vulnerable at times, certainly more so than main rival Sinner.
His first-round match here is an interesting one with the huge-serving Reilly Opelka in his way.
Now, you’d expect Alcaraz to get a read on the Opelka bombs at some point – it’s best-of-five sets after all – but it’s worth noting this will be the pair’s first meeting so if Alcaraz does get down early on, the pressure to find solutions quickly will certainly be rising. It’s definitely going to be a match lacking rhythm and won’t exactly ease the Spaniard into the tournament.
Daniil Medvedev will probably have his backers at 70/1 given he’s played in three of the last six finals here, winning the title in 2021.
However, I won’t be among them – I’ve just seen so little from the Russian in recent times to suggest he’s ready to go deep at a major. Let’s not forget this is a player who has not won a title at any level in more than two years now.
I’d much rather back BEN SHELTON at a shorter price, as we did on these pages when he won the title in Toronto recently.
A big server with crunching groundstrokes, Shelton has gone 12-2 during the summer hardcourt swing and has spoken about the extra confidence he’s gained from recent performances. He’s also come through a series of tight matches, which must be good mentally.
Shelton made the semis here two years ago and, to me, looks the best of the home hopes – remember the host nation hasn’t won the men’s singles since 2003 when Andy Roddick claimed his only Grand Slam title.
The main concern here has to be Shelton’s 0-3 record against Alcaraz, who would be expected to win any semi-final.
With that in mind, I’d suggest keeping any bet on Shelton to small stakes.
Summary
While Sinner may well win, his recent illness makes backing him at least slightly risky business.
Zverev has similar issues but the difference is his price is way, way bigger and so I feel much more inclined to take a chance on him.
The German has a decent record in New York and was playing well in Cincinnati before being laid low.
With Zverev also holding a winning record over Sinner in their head-to-head series, let’s back him each-way and hope for the best in terms of his physical wellbeing.
As a back-up, siding with Khachanov to win quarter two has potential given how he’s played of late.
And if Sinner is vulnerable, perhaps the enigmatic Bublik can take advantage – he’s won 22 of his last 25 matches after all. 18/1 about him making the semis gets the green light to minimum stakes.
On the other side of the draw, I’ll also take Shelton to small stakes but, in general, this looks a tricky draw to find real value in – it may well be wort holding plenty back for the match bets.
I’ll publish my look at day one on Saturday.
Posted at 1625 BST on 22/08/25
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