Andy Schooler has two outright picks in the women’s semi-finals at the US Open but what happens now? Here’s his preview of Thursday’s matches...
Tennis tips: Today's US Open best bets
1.25pts Elena Rybakina to beat Coco Gauff at 17/20 (William Hill, betway)
0.75pt Rybakina to beat Gauff, serve most aces & fewest double faults at 33/20 (bet365)
Aryna Sabalenka v Jessica Pegula (2359 BST)
The top four seeds have made it through to the women’s semi-finals at the US Open.
Numbers three and four (Pegula and Coco Gauff) were both tipped up in our outright preview but the pair both head into Thursday’s matches as underdogs.
So, will the seedings prevail?
Well, Sabalenka looks a worthy favourite here and I thought she might have been priced up shorter than she was on the first show. In line with that theory, the Belarusian has been well supported since the market opened and is now around the 1/2 mark.
Pegula is at least getting the respect her form deserves, while she has been able to cause her opponent problems in the past.
Sabalenka actually leads the head-to-head 9-4 but it’s only 6-3 on hardcourts and when the pair last played a set – on the grass of Berlin in June – Pegula won it 6-0.
Their last four meetings have all gone to a deciding set so the American – who lost to Sabalenka at this stage last year and in the 2024 final – clearly should not be written off.
My ante-post take on Sabalenka was that she was worth opposing given her disappointing form coming into New York but she’s managed to raise her level at the right time, as all the greats do.
She’s lost only the one set so far, that coming in the previous round when Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova pushed her all the way to a final-set tie-break.
Sabalenka certainly noticed the rise in level and dealing with Pegula, who made finals in Cincinnati and Washington in the lead up to this event, won’t be easy.
Perhaps surprisingly, Pegula has a better first-serve-points-won percentage at this year’s US Open than Sabalenka (74%-72%), whose serve hasn’t been at its brilliant best – 81% holds isn’t the greatest figure, certainly be her standards.
Pegula will need to soak up those initial big strikes – serve-plus-one is also a key shot for Sabalenka – but if she does, she may be able to find those chinks in the armour which have been on show at times in recent months.
Still, Sabalenka is the proven performer at Grand Slam level – remember she’s bidding to reach an eighth successive Slam final on hardcourts – and Pegula has only ever won one major semi-final before.
I can’t say I’m convinced about how this is going to play out.
If pushed, I’d probably side with Sabalenka but, given our outright position, I’m happy to leave this one alone.
Coco Gauff v Elena Rybakina (to follow SF1)
Gauff’s ex-coach Brad Gilbert famously wrote a book entitled Winning Ugly.
His former charge appears to have read it.
Gauff toughed out a low-quality quarter-final with Mirra Andreeva on Wednesday, saving match point in the process.
She once again showed that incredible fight and mental toughness she has to overcome adversity but the key takeaway from that match for me was that she’ll need to massively improve if she’s to beat Rybakina.
The Kazakh, who beat Gauff only a few weeks ago in Toronto, has been in fine form at Flushing Meadows and has lost only one set to get to this stage – in the last round against Qinwen Zheng.
She, too, wasn’t flustered and fought back to keep her hopes of winning a second Grand Slam this year alive.
As is often the case when Rybakina plays well, her serve has been excellent. She’s lost her delivery only four times in five rounds thus far, while she’s won 75% of points behind her first serve (Gauff’s equivalent figure is 68%).
Rybakina also holds a strong advantage on second-serve points won at the tournament (55% to 45%), while the head-to-head stats show a similar picture with Rybakina actually winning even more first-serve points (81%).
Although I’m significantly invested in Gauff winning this given that outright preview, I think Rybakina is good value at 17/20.
If in command, I doubt she’ll let Gauff off the hook in the way Andreeva did and she’s very capable of exposing the forehand flaw in the American’s game.
I’d also suggest this is a good match for a Bet Builder, if you have a bookmaker offering the right markets.
bet365 are always good with their service market offerings and you can boost your Rybakina win price to 33/20 if you also back her to serve the most aces and the fewest double faults.
The serve aspects have both landed in the duo’s two previous meetings, while at this year’s US Open, Rybakina leads for aces per game (0.76 v 0.29) with Gauff up on double faults (0.55 per game to 0.29).
Those are convincing margins.
Posted 11:00 BST on 10/09/2026
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