Andy Schooler brings you his best bets for Saturday’s third-round matches at the US Open.
Tennis tips: Today's US Open best bets
1pt Arthur Gea to beat Michael Zheng at 5/4 (BOYLE Sports)
Michael Zheng v Arthur Gea
Gea delivered a winner for this column in the previous round when he was a pretty comfortable winner over Zachary Svajda at odds-against.
He’s a similar price for this contest and, again, looks worth backing,
The Frenchman arrives at this contest having won 13 of his last 15 matches. Admittedly, not all of those have been at tour level but many were with Gea recently claiming his maiden ATP crown in Los Cabos.
Zheng was among his victims in that tournament, Gea winning a bizarre clash 0-6 6-4 6-0.
Gea has now won both previous meetings between the pair and, significantly, both have come this year on a hardcourt.
Zheng has some decent form himself, qualifying at both Wimbledon and Cincinnati; he beat Ugo Humbert at the latter event.
However, overall his hardcourt numbers at tour level are down on his opponent’s. He has held serve 74% of the time and broken 23% for a combined total of 97. Gea is up at 111.
In short, many things look in Gea’s favour here and I’m not convinced he should be the outsider.
A standout 5/4 is available but the more-widely available 6/5 is just fine too.
Luciano Darderi v Dane Sweeny
Sweeny has certainly ridden his luck to get to this third-round stage and I suspect it’s about to run out.
The Australian beat Corentin Moutet in round one, a player who is clearly still nursing a wrist injury. Then in his second match he came up against an ill Lorenzo Musetti.
Darderi is therefore likely to be the first properly fit opponent he’s faced and the gulf in class could well be on show.
The 21st seed will be facing a player ranked more than 100 places lower and my general feeling is that the Italian will win this with something to spare – he should be too solid from the baseline for a player who is more used to the Challenger Tour.
A straight-sets win is around the 11/8 mark, while covering the -5.5 game handicap also looks more than possible.
However, I do note that Darderi has failed to win in straight sets in either of his matches thus far, both of which were against qualifiers, while his only previous encounter with Sweeny (in 2023 Australian Open qualifying) went to a deciding set.
I’m certainly tempted to get involved – maybe in some sort of double with Taylor Fritz, who looks in good form and should dismiss Francisco Cerundolo – but I’m not convinced enough.
Posted 21:45 BST on 05/09/2026
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