Andy Schooler has a 66/1 selection in the men's semi-finals at the US Open. Get his verdict on both matches.
Tennis tips: Today's US Open best bets
1pt Alex Zverev to beat Karen Khachanov 3-0 at 11/8 (BetVictor, bet365)
0.25pt Frances Tiafoe to serve most aces v Ben Shelton at 18/1 (bet365)
Alex Zverev v Karen Khachanov (2000 BST)
As regular readers will know, I’m very surprised that Khachanov has managed to return to the US Open semi-finals.
If you’ve backed him either ante-post or during the rounds, congratulations, but I’m not sure how you saw it coming.
While the Russian now stands just one win away from his first Grand Slam final, I think reality is about to bite.
Learner Tien had him in trouble and let him escape in the last 16, while Alexander Blockx, as feared, simply wasn’t fit enough to trouble him in the quarter-finals.
This, therefore, should feel like a big step up in class as Zverev has found his groove as the tournament has worn on.
There were early struggles with Zverev needing two five-setters – and two late finishes – to progress but since then he’s won three matches in straight sets. In the last two, he’s not lost his serve.
I just don’t see what Khachanov does better than Zverev, who has now won four of their last five matches – all in straight sets. Khachanov’s sole win in that period – and only one in this match-up since 2019 – came in Toronto last season when he won 7-6 in the third.
He’s struggled on return in those five matches, breaking Zverev only three times. The German has responded with 16 breaks of his own.
If Khachanov was playing absolutely lights-out tennis, perhaps you could make a case for him, but I just don’t see it and I expect class to prevail comfortably.
Another straight-sets win is an 11/8 shot which looks the bet to me.
The one concern I’d have is that this will be Zverev’s first day-session match – it starts at 3pm local time, as opposed to the 7pm starts he’s had throughout the tournament so far.
Maybe the different conditions could play into Khachanov’s hands early on – he’s 12/5 to win the first set and I could see why someone might want to take a chance on that happening, but my view is Zverev wins comfortably.
Frances Tiafoe v Ben Shelton (not before 2359 BST)
Followers of our outright preview will have Tiafoe each way at 66/1, knowing victory here secures a tasty payout.
Sadly, he’s a considerable underdog (5/2) against his fellow American.
I did like Shelton’s chances pre-tournament but a tough draw put me off given his price – he shortened up significantly during the hardcourt swing thanks to his victory in Montreal.
However, the eighth seed has come through those tests with flying colours – Tallon Griekspoor, Hubert Hurkacz, Denis Shapovalov, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Carlos Alcaraz is a difficult run.
The hope for those with a Tiafoe ticket is that Shelton’s match with Alcaraz went on until 3.33am on Wednesday and that such a finish will have affected his body clock.
That said, that match was basically on Tuesday’s schedule so he has had time to recover; had it been in the other half of the draw, which played on Wednesday, it would be a much tougher turnaround.
Tiafoe has also done everything asked of him, although only just. He produced a Jekyll and Hyde performance against Alex Michelsen in his quarter-final, looking down and out when Michelsen won the first two sets and served for the match in the third.
But the transformation was remarkable and by the final set, Tiafoe was striking his feared forehand miles better than in the early stages.
Forehand to forehand could produce some memorable exchanges here, while both men also possess big serves capable of delivering cheap points.
However, the big improvement in Shelton’s game of late has been his return and that’s where I see him really turning up the heat on Tiafoe, who has won only one of their four previous meetings.
The most recent – in Washington last season – saw Shelton created 10 break points to Tiafoe’s one, which highlights that concern.
Tiafoe’s win did at least come here at Flushing Meadows – in 2024 – but I’m afraid that he’s going to be second best on this occasion the way Shelton has been playing.
Shelton to win with Tiafoe putting up a decent fight would be my verdict on how this plays out – a Shelton victory with both players winning a set is a shade of odds-against.
However, at that price, that’s not a bet I really want to take.
Instead, I’ll pick out a long shot which probably isn’t going to win but certainly looks badly priced and that’s Tiafoe to serve the most aces.
Admittedly, Shelton has landed this four times out of four but last time out it was only by a 9-8 margin.
As for this tournament, Shelton is ahead but not by a great deal – he’s served 0.52 aces per game to Tiafoe’s 0.39. And Tiafoe’s figure was supressed by an awful first three sets against Michelsen when his first-serve percentage was barely above 40%.
Essentially, this isn’t an 18/1 shot. It is probably a value loser but let’s have a small-stakes play – it could be fun.
Posted 20:20 BST on 10/09/2026
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