Andy Schooler’s 10/1 title pick Ben Shelton plays Karen Khachanov in Thursday’s final in Toronto. Here, he previews that showdown.
Tennis betting tips: National Bank Open
1pt Ben Shelton to beat Karen Khachanov 2-0 at 13/8 (bet365)
Karen Khachanov v Ben Shelton (0030 BST, Fri)
Our 10/1 title pick in Toronto, Ben Shelton, appears to have hit form at just the right time.
Having sailed rather close to the wind in earlier rounds, he saw off Taylor Fritz relatively easily in Wednesday night’s semi-final, backing up a convincing win over Alex de Minaur.
The big takeaway from his victory over Fritz was not necessarily how well his ‘A’ game was working – serve and forehand firing well – but how much confidence the American has right now. It appears to be overflowing.
“I’ve seen so many big improvements in my game this week, that’s what I’m most happy about, how I’m executing, how little I’m hesitating, how I’m returning,” he gushed.
“There are a lot of things to be proud about and beating two top-10 guys back-to-back is huge for me.”
He added it felt like he “had the ball on a string” and admitted he was “expecting” his shots to go in.
The difference now is that, unlike the last two rounds, he goes into this match as the favourite, a best of 3/5 to be precise. Expectation is considerably higher and Shelton will know he’ll climb to a career-high of sixth in the ATP rankings with victory.
He looks a worthy favourite though, with Khachanov’s semi-final being much longer and of a lower quality.
The Russian needed almost three hours to upset top seed Alex Zverev on Wednesday and now has to play on consecutive days, not something he’s been used to during this revamped tournament.
“It was a very demanding, very mental, very physical match,” he said. Not ideal.
It was also one featuring too many errors for both players’ liking – Zverev will regret one in particular, a backhand into the net when match point up in the deciding set.
That was how close Khachanov was to exiting the tournament; instead he finds himself in a first Masters 1000 final since 2018.
He upset an ill Novak Djokovic in Paris that day but while our outright position fills me with dread regarding a repeat, it’s not something I’m really expecting.
Shelton won the pair’s only previous meeting in straight sets, that coming in Indian Wells earlier this year. The most eyecatching stat from that contest was the one regarding second-serve points won. While Shelton was up at a healthy 55%, Khachanov won just 38% of points on his second deal. That’s surely an area the American will target given how well he’s been returning and generally striking the ball.
If you are on Shelton already, there looks little reason to get involved again but for those not in that boat, I’d lean towards the American.
Shelton has covered the -1.5 game handicap in four of five rounds so far, doing so easily in the past couple of rounds. I wouldn’t put anyone off that.
However, I’m tempted by the 13/8 being dangled about a straight-sets win and so will back him to deliver the bigger price against a jaded opponent.
Posted at 0950 BST on 07/08/25
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