Following winners at 14/1 and 9/2 over the last three weeks, Andy Schooler previews the latest round of ATP events in Dubai, Acapulco and Santiago.
Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour
1pt e.w. Roberto Bautista Agut in the Dubai Duty Free Championships at 25/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair, BoyleSports)
0.5pt e.w. Cameron Norrie in the Abierto Mexicano Telcel at 33/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Federico Delbonis in the Chile Dove Men+Care Open at 12/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Miomir Kecmanovic in he Chile Dove Men+Care Open at 25/1 (Betfred)
Dubai Duty Free Championships
- Dubai, UAE (outdoor hard)
Novak Djokovic may have made a lot of headlines of late but the fact is he hasn’t played a competitive tennis match since December 3.
That will change this week but, for all his talent, backing him at odds-on makes little appeal.
Any long absence from the court has the potential to disrupt but it’s the nature of his time away which adds to concerns.
The debacle of his trip to Australia must have been mentally and physically draining and while that’s now a month ago, the mental side of things haven’t gone away with last week’s media interviews. The questions are hardly likely to stop in Dubai.
At least Djokovic has chosen comfortable surroundings in which to return to action (I say choose but I’m not sure how much choice an unvaccinated player has when it comes to his schedule these days).
The Serb is a five-time winner in Dubai, most recently in 2020. However, that is also his only title here in his last four visits.
This week he’ll face a strong field. He may be the only top-five player involved (the others are all in Acapulco, see below) but the eight seeds all come from the world’s top 16, while the last direct acceptance was the world number 57.
In short, there are few easy matches on offer.
Djokovic could have had a tougher first-round draw – he’ll face a wild card in Lorenzo Musetti. However, it should be remembered that the Italian led Djokovic by two sets to love at last year’s French Open and he recently made the quarter-finals in Rotterdam.
Next up for the world number one would be Karen Khachanov or Alex de Minaur, both players who have made decent starts to 2022.
After two finals in the last two weeks, Felix Auger-Aliassime is arguably the biggest threat to Djokovic in this half – the pair could meet in the last four – but it is ROBERTO BAUTISTA AGUT who I feel could provide the biggest problems.
The Spaniard arrives on the back of a title run in nearby Doha where conditions aren’t dissimilar to those on show here.
RBA has regularly troubled Djokovic when they’ve met and a look through their head-to-head shows he’s won three of their last four meetings on a hardcourt, one of those being in the Middle East in Doha. Few players can claim that.
He’s also won at least a set in seven of their last eight on all surfaces.
Time and again the 33-year-old has been able to live with Djokovic in the baseline exchanges and he certainly looks an awkward opponent potentially lying in wait on the Serb’s path to the final.
Some will be concerned about his ability to reach two finals in a as many weeks but winning Doha wasn’t his toughest assignment – with a first-round bye he only needed to win four matches and three of those were comfortable straight-sets successes.
With just one set dropped and a Saturday final to give him extra recovery time, RBA should be ready to give this a good crack.
The 2018 champion is up at 33/1 with Betfred and that’s a good price. However, I’ll opt to go with a firm who offer half the odds in their each-way terms and take 25s instead.
There’s obvious a chance for some each-way action in the bottom half given Djokovic’s short price but little is making appeal.
Jannik Sinner, the man the bookies expect to make the final, can be opposed given he’s not played since the Australian Open and will have a new coaching team, bringing new ideas, with him this week.
I’d prefer Andrey Rublev, who has shown some more encouraging signs over the past fortnight, making the semis in Rotterdam before winning the title in Marseille on Sunday.
However, the 10/1 shot now has to transition to outdoor tennis and also clearly has plenty of tennis in his legs.
I’ll leave the bottom section and go with RBA as my man in Dubai.
Abierto Mexicano Telcel
- Acapulco, Mexico (outdoor hard)
You don’t get many better fields than this at 500 level on the ATP Tour.
Five of the world’s top six will be in the Mexican resort, including Daniil Medvedev, who arrives knowing victory would see him become world number one for the first time, thus ending the Big Four’s 18-year stranglehold on top spot.
A look at some of the first-round matches says much about the quality of this field – you’ve got Alex Zverev v Jenson Brooksby, Cam Norrie v Carlos Alcaraz and Rafael Nadal v Reilly Opelka to name just a few.
Clearly there’s the potential for early upsets and confidently picking a winner here looks difficult indeed.
Medvedev starts as favourite at a best price of 11/5 (BetVictor) and he’s certainly got the motivation this week.
But will any scars remain from his defeat from two sets up in that epic Australian Open final?
The man who beat him from a seemingly impossible position that day, Nadal, is a possible semi-final foe this week, while before that Taylor Fritz is a man in form and one with a strong record in Mexico.
He was the beaten finalist here two years ago, while over in Los Cabos, where they use the same Solflex courts, he was runner-up in 2019 and made the semis last season.
Nadal (5/1, Betfred) has won here in the past (2020) and made another final (2017) and is sure to have his backers following his efforts in Melbourne.
Yet his is a difficult draw with the red-hot Opelka first up in what will be their first hardcourt meeting. Matteo Berrettini could await in the last eight before Medvedev, just to make the final.
Berrettini is worth considering at 25/1 (BoyleSports). He’s a genuine all-court player these days so I doubt the switch from the Rio clay – where he was competitive against Carlos Alcaraz - will prove too big a hurdle to overcome.
His big serve and forehand combination took him to the Australian Open semis and should work well here.
However, what is off-putting is his record against the game’s elite – the Italian has lost his last 10 matches against top-10 opponents, his last such win coming more than a year ago.
He’s yet to beat either Nadal or Medvedev so it’s hard to side with him on this occasion.
Defending champion Zverev is favourite to ‘win’ the bottom half and his big serve has been a potent weapon in these conditions in the past (he was also runner-up in 2019).
However, that opener against Brooksby looks a banana skin with the young American a real rising star in the game. He made the final in Dallas in his first ATP event of the season earlier this month. I couldn’t back Zverev at 4/1 (BetVictor).
Stefanos Tsitsipas, the man Zverev beat in last year’s final, is at 7/1 (BetVictor) but he’s not been at his best in recent weeks, well beaten in the Rotterdam final and then losing to Roman Saffiullin in the semis of Marseille at the weekend.
The Greek has the trans-Atlantic trip to make, plus the adjustment to the outdoor courts. I’ll look elsewhere.
Pablo Carreno Busta is in Tsitsipas’ quarter and I certainly considered him at 66/1.
He still doesn’t get the respect he deserves on hardcourts and the 2016 Los Cabos semi-finalist looks to have landed in a good part of the draw.
However, I’m put off but two things – firstly the fact he withdrew from the doubles in Rio last week citing an abdominal strain and, secondly, a 0-3 head-to-head against Tsitsipas.
Instead the man I will back is CAMERON NORRIE at 33/1.
The Briton didn’t start 2022 well but there’s been plenty of improvement in recent weeks.
Norrie beat Khachanov en route to the last eight in Rotterdam where he only lost to the eventual champion, Auger-Aliassime.
And last week in Delray Beach, he saw off Tommy Paul and Seb Korda. At time of writing he’s due to contest the final against Opelka.
He’s bedded into outdoor hard conditions and has enjoyed his trips to Mexico in the past.
He won on this Solflex surface in Los Cabos in July and was a semi-finalist here in 2019, as well as making the last eight last season.
A big reason for his large price is that first-round clash with Alcaraz but Norrie looks well positioned to win that given Alcaraz must rush here from the Rio clay – he’s due to contest the final on Sunday.
It’s been a tough few days in Brazil with the rain creating both backlogs and plenty of long matches.
The Spaniard isn’t a natural on the hardcourts which are much more Norrie’s domain.
It’s not a hugely confident selection but the price may offer a touch of value in what should be a cracking tournament to watch.
Chile Dove Men+Care Open
- Santiago, Chile (outdoor clay)
The month-long ‘Golden Swing’ of claycourt tournaments in South America reaches its conclusion in Santiago this week.
It’s important to realise that after a couple of weeks down at sea level, the tour heads back up to a significant altitude now with the venue on the outskirts of the Chilean capital in the foothills of the Andes at around 1,000m up.
With the balls getting that extra fizz through the thinner air, control is key and, as regular readers will know, I’m always keen to side with players who have a track record of performing in such conditions.
Albert Ramos-Vinolas, our recent 14/1 winner in Cordoba where altitude is also a factor, is the obvious candidate.
Of his 11 ATP Tour finals, seven have come at venues at a notable altitude, with two titles won.
However, he’s just 13/2 on this occasion and it’s questionable if there’s any value in that price, particularly when you consider ARV is a man who often gets dragged into lengthy matches.
There’s also the looming issue of FEDERICO DELBONIS in his half of the draw – the pair could meet in the semis and the Argentine holds a 6-2 winning record in their head-to-head.
Delbonis made the semi-finals here last season, while one of his two titles came at altitude in Sao Paulo when it was a stop of this Golden Swing.
The Argentine has looked in decent form in the past few weeks, reaching the last four of his home event in Buenos Aires where it took eventual champion Casper Ruud to beat him.
Then last week in Rio it was Carlos Alcaraz who proved too good, winning a tight match 6-4 7-6. No disgrace there.
There is no-one of Ruud or Alcaraz’s class here this week. Throw in a first-round bye and Delbonis looks a decent bet at 12/1.
The top seed is Cristian Garin but one suspects he’s only playing here because it’s his home event.
Garin won here last year but was flying at the time.
Almost 12 months on and the boot is on the other foot.
He lost 6-2 6-0 to Federico Coria in Rio last week, after which he spoke rather worryingly about his physical condition.
“I’ve had this (shoulder) injury for a few months and can’t get better,” he said.
In the circumstances, I don’t see why anyone would want to back him this week, especially at a top price of 6/1.
Cordoba runner-up Alejandro Tabilo could be his first opponent, while it’s my pick MIOMIR KECMANOVIC who could follow in the quarter-finals.
He’s another who’s shown good signs on this run of South American events with wins over decent clay sorts in Lorenzo Sonego and Laslo Djere.
After his win against Sonego, Kecmanovic declared himself “very happy” with his form. “I’ve been playing well, especially on clay,” he added.
Francisco Cerundolo beat the Serb in both Rio (quarter-finals) and Buenos Aires (last 16) but those aren’t awful results given the Argentine’s recent rise on the red dirt.
Kecmanovic also has that altitude history ticked off – he was the champion in Kitzbuhel in 2020.
The serve was worked particularly well last week and if he can assert that ball control required then that’s a shot which could really deliver this high up.
In a section where Garin is screaming out to be taken on, Kecmanovic gets the nod at a tasty 25/1.
Posted at 1755 GMT on 20/02/22
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