England host Ireland in the Six Nations on Sunday afternoon and our rugby union expert Tony Calvin previews the action.
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One of my pre-tournament suggestions was to back No Grand Slam winner at 11/10 – a staple recommendation in recent seasons, it has to be said – and it finally looks likely to bear fruit this year.
This scenario is now a 1/3 chance and I suspect England beating or drawing with Ireland at Twickenham on Sunday will effectively seal the deal given their impressive record at Twickenham, with only four losses from 33 games there in the last five years alongside that 38-38 draw with Scotland last year.
Ireland were one of those victorious sides, winning this fixture 24-15 in 2018 – though they got a proper seeing-to when losing their World Cup prep game 57-15 last August – and they look to be warming to their task once again in this tournament.
They tend to be slow-burners but looked full value for their 10-point defeat of Wales in Dublin a fortnight ago, and they have picked a very powerful starting XV on Sunday.
They do, however, have weaknesses for England to exploit.
I’d have been worried more about their scrum had Mako Vunipola been available, and his absence (he has gone back to Tonga for family reasons) also robs England of a vital ball-carrier and brilliant defensive operator, but as a combination I feel the Conor Murray-Johnny Sexton axis is on its last legs.
But they have class and punch from 1 to 15, and I love the fact that Andy Farrell has had Paul O’Connell in his training camp this week (I am not so sure about U2 appearing however, unless that was a Twitter spoof).
Not only has O’Connell developed into one of the best rugby analysts on TV, but he has a presence, and tactical awareness, about him that I imagine would have lifted and buoyed, not to mention informed, this Ireland squad.
Perhaps a win could be just beyond Ireland – England have pretty much owned them in their last two meetings – but I am happy to side with Farrell’s side with the start.
I say Farrell’s side but of course it is father versus son here as England captain Owen aims to get another one over on his old man.
He looked pretty badly out of sorts in England’s dismal defeat against France – though he took a big early bang in that match – and he and his side did what they had to do in horrendous conditions at Murrayfield last time.
I don’t think we have seen much in victory or defeat to allow us to gauge where England are after that World Cup final defeat, but I reckon Ireland come into this game in a better collective head-space.
Horrible phrase but I have said it now.
I was going to wait until England announced their team on Friday, but I can’t see any big changes in the offing – perhaps Manu Tuilagi will be back in the centre – so I am happy to take Ireland +7.5 at 5/6 with BetVictor (the general +7 is fine if you can’t access that price, and indeed you may prefer it with evens available), especially with a touch of rain possibly about at Twickenham on Sunday.
Be lucky.
Posted at 1435 GMT on 20/02/20
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