Jon Newcombe of The Rugby Tipster previews the series decider as South Africa host the British and Irish Lions in the third and final Test.
Rugby union betting tips: South Africa v Lions third Test
2pts Lions to win the second half at 6/5 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt Lions to win the match at 7/5 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt Bongi Mbonambi to score the first try at 18/1 (William Hill, BoyleSports)
2pts A drop goal to be scored at 9/4 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Watching a series that has given so much bite up front but very little to chew over in the backs has been like pulling teeth. But hopefully, both teams can put past grievances to one side and let the rugby and not the judiciary – or Rassie Erasmus – do the talking.
To win Saturday’s decisive third Test in Cape Town, the Lions need to play some rugby, as Warren Gatland has admitted himself, but that is easier said than done on a pitch that is cutting up badly and against a watertight defence that has yielded only six tries in its last 11 Tests.
Gatland hasn’t exactly rolled the dice in terms of his starting XV, to find a way through the green and gold wall, but at least the selection of Finn Russell, Elliot Daly and Sam Simmonds gives him different options off the bench.
Consequently, we expect a strong second-half performance from the Lions, as they won’t want to board the plane back to the UK wondering what might have been, and they are a good shout at to WIN THE SECOND HALF and rate better value than the Springboks to WIN THE MATCH outright.
Former World Rugby Player of the Year Pieter-Steph du Toit and talismanic scrum-half Faf de Klerk are such key cogs in the Springbok machine that is hard to see them functioning as well as they did last week without the injured duo.
Moving Franco Mostert to the back row and bringing Lood de Jager on alongside Eben Etzebeth worked a treat last week when du Toit was forced off the field early. But the element of surprise will have gone now. In 41 previous Tests, former Gloucester man Mostert has never started at blindside before so you’d like to think the Lions will have come up with a plan to exploit his inexperience there.
With Dan Biggar at 10, and the conservative choices of Bundee Aki and Robbie Henshaw outside him, it is hard to see the first half going anything other than to type with both teams going at each other hammer-and-tongs and the wingers and full-backs strangers to the ball again.
The Springboks will look to slow the game down as much as possible, keep it set-piece orientated and take the points whenever they are available. If they do decide to kick for the corner instead of towards the posts, there is a good chance that hooker BONGI MBONAMBI will be at the back of the maul and ready to dive over.
Mbonambi, who is in the middle of an all-Stormers front-row, has scored seven international tries and is a sound first try-scorer selection at 18/1, on the basis that six of them have come before the 25-minute mark.
Whilst a lineout catch-and-drive is the scoring method most in vogue at present, the DROP GOAL is very much a thing of the past. Given there are so few successful drop goals these days, 2/1 might appear skinny odds but, with the personnel that could be on the pitch, especially at the end of the match if it is tight, you’d expect at least one attempt.
Of those players still active in Test rugby, only Argentinian kingpin Nicolas Sanchez (12) has successfully slotted more drop goals than Springbok replacement Morne Steyn’s 10. Biggar is next on the list with seven, the last of which came during Rugby World Cup 2019, so there are reasons to believe the price could represent a spot of value.
For the Springboks, a 2-1 series defeat wouldn’t be the end of the world given they have had so little game time and everyone was writing them off, but for Gatland, who is surely on his last Lions tour, if that result is reversed, it would be a terrible outcome.
Our pre-series prediction was for the Lions to win 2-1 (at odds of 2/1), and we’re sticking, cautiously, to our guns. Let’s just hope the Lions find theirs and fire a few shots.
Posted at 1215 BST on 05/08/21
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