Ben Linfoot takes a look at the Classic division heading into the autumn and tries to predict who will emerge as the top-rated three-year-old come the year’s end.
The front runner
Top of the Timeform ratings for the three-year-olds at the end of the summer is ADAYAR, who had a good August despite not hitting the track during the month.
Mishriff gave Charlie Appleby’s son of Frankel a mighty form boost when winning the Juddmonte International by six lengths, inflating the merit of his King George success in July.
Perhaps Mishriff was still working towards his peak at Ascot – and over a trip that probably stretches his stamina a little too far as well – but there’s no doubt that form boosts like that make you think that the Cazoo Derby has finally found another three-year-old who is the real deal.
Unlimited Replays
of all UK and Irish races with our Race Replays
Discover Sporting Life Plus Benefits
Since Golden Horn won at Epsom in 2015 the four subsequent Derby winners before Adayar won two races from 21 starts between them, so it’s only natural to treat the Epsom hero with suspicion.
His King George win was impressive, though, in style as well as the substance we are already seeing, and so the general 4/1 quotes about him for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe look about right.
If he goes and does a Golden Horn and wins the Arc all bets are off when it comes to the top three-year-old of 2021. But giving the three-year-old fillies – including Snowfall – 3lb makes it a tough assignment and defeat in Paris would open up the door in the race to be top dog in the 3yo division.
The best of Ballydoyle
By Aidan O’Brien’s standards it hasn’t been a vintage year for his three-year-olds with just four individual winners of Group Ones amongst his Classic hopefuls in the UK and Ireland so far in 2021.
The good news is two of those – SNOWFALL and ST MARK’S BASILICA – look very good indeed and both could have solid claims when it comes to being best of the Classic crop when the gongs are handed out at the end of the year.
St Mark’s Basilica is just 1lb shy of Adayar on Timeform ratings and, like the Godolphin horse, his own Coral-Eclipse form was boosted when Mishriff won the Juddmonte International.
But while Adayar would be favourite to see off Mishriff were they to meet over a mile and a half again, it would be a much tighter betting heat between John & Thady Gosden’s horse and St Mark’s Basilica in a rematch over 10 furlongs.
Unlimited Replays
of all UK and Irish races with our Race Replays
Discover Sporting Life Plus BenefitsMishriff wasn’t match fit in the Coral-Eclipse and St Mark’s Basilica got 10lb from him on the weight-for-age scale in July, so it’s with hope those two clash again before the season’s end.
The Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown on September 11 has been pencilled in for St Mark’s Basilica’s return following the gallops injury that kept him out of York, and while it seems unlikely that he’ll face Mishriff in Ireland he could meet fellow three-year-old Poetic Flare.
A convincing win over Jim Bolger’s 2000 Guineas and St James’s Palace Stakes winner would go some way to cementing his legacy and, with 10 furlongs being his trip, it would be great to see him take on the best of the British the following month at Ascot for QIPCO British Champions Day.
As for Snowfall, her startling improvement for stepping up in trip at three shows no signs of regressing and the turn of foot she displayed to seal the Yorkshire Oaks at York last week was a sight to behold – even against older fillies unsuited by the conditions.
She’s answering every question being asked of her and the next one is can she do it against the colts?
Getting 11lb from the older colts and 3lb from the three-year-old males will help in Paris and, given her versatility, it’s no wonder she’s the 9/4 favourite across the board for the Longchamp showpiece.
She is 10lb shy of Adayar on Timeform ratings, so she could conceivably win the Arc and still be rated inferior to one or two from her generation come the end of the year. But she looks special, and few contests are as eagerly-awaited this autumn than an Arc in which the outstanding Oaks and Derby winners are set to bang heads.
The one coming up the rail
We can’t call BAAEED a dark horse as he’s one of the most exciting three-year-old colts in training, but he does go into autumn campaign as the best horse around not to have competed in a Group One.
Despite this he’s still got a lofty BHA mark of 121 and a Timeform rating of 125p, a number that puts him above top-level winners like Snowfall and Hurricane Lane.
After making his debut at Leicester on June 7 - where he registered a cosy victory - he has gone from strength to strength, winning a novice stakes on the July Course at Newmarket during Royal Ascot week before returning to the same venue where he really announced himself in the Listed Sir Henry Cecil Stakes.
Unlimited Replays
of all UK and Irish races with our Race Replays
Discover Sporting Life Plus BenefitsThere was talk of the Sussex Stakes after that, but William Haggas decided to take the next step up the ladder and a Group Three – at Glorious Goodwood in the Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes – where he dotted up once again when always looking like landing prohibitive odds of 2/5.
Screaming that he’s a Group One winner – never mind contender – in waiting, Haggas has given Baaeed the green light to strut his stuff in the Prix du Moulin at Longchamp on September 5 and if he passes that test, he could be the one to lay it down to Palace Pier on Champions Day.
Can Hurricane blow hot?
We might need a Hurricane Lane v Adayar rematch to sort out the best of the Classic bunch.
Comprehensively beaten seven-and-three-quarter lengths by Adayar in the Derby, third home Hurricane Lane lost both of his front shoes at Epsom and came out of the race with two much-improved performances when winning the Irish Derby and Grand Prix de Paris.
Judging by his superb victory at Longchamp, you’d have to think Hurricane Lane would be having a traditional Arc prep in one of the trials, like the Prix Niel Adayar is pencilled in for, were he not around at the same time as his Derby-winning stablemate.
Unlimited Replays
of all UK and Irish races with our Race Replays
Discover Sporting Life Plus BenefitsBut Charlie Appleby has to shuffle his pack with thought given the talent at his disposal and his intentions for Hurricane Lane were made clear this week when he was the only Godolphin representative left in the St Leger at the latest forfeit stage.
The last time a St Leger runner was top-rated three-year-old by Timeform was 2012 runner-up Camelot, but he had a 2000 Guineas and Derby in his back pocket before he was denied Triple Crown glory by Encke, trained by Appleby’s disgraced predecessor Mahmood Al Zarooni.
Hurricane Lane, odds-on for the Leger and looking every inch like he’ll stay the trip, could well end up in Paris via Doncaster, but no horse has ever done that particular double in the same year.
Verdict
We haven’t even got onto the three-year-old sprinters who look an above-average bunch themselves, with Rohaan, Winter Power and Dragon Symbol all locked on a Timeform rating of 123 with races like the Haydock Sprint Cup, Prix de l’Abbaye and British Champions Sprint still to come.
It would take some performance in the sprinting division to topple the milers and middle-distance stars, though, and predicting who will be the top three-year-old for 2021 in August comes down to how much of a believer you are in ADAYAR.
Given his form and the subsequent exploits of beaten rivals like Hurricane Lane and Mishriff, I’m inclined to believe he’s very much the real deal and a bold bid for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is anticipated before, who knows? Perhaps a soft ground Champion Stakes might appeal.
Snowfall is an obvious danger in the Arc getting the 3lb from him but a bigger ratings threat could well come from Baaeed, who has strolled to a number of 123p without testing himself in Group One company.
If he wins the Moulin like he’s been winning his lead-up races he’ll possibly be usurping Adayar’s 133 by the evening of September 5, and he’s just one of many from the Classic generation that are well placed to light up the backend of the Flat season.