In this week's 'Weights & Measures' blog, Ben Linfoot rounds up the adjusted official ratings following Trials Day at Cheltenham where plenty enhanced their Festival claims.
Apple's has the answers again
- Apple's Shakira >>>> New entry at 146
There was a brief moment between the second last and the last where you might’ve thought ‘hello, has Apple’s Shakira got a race on her hands here?’
But the full-sister to Apple’s Jade had all the answers, for the third successive time at Cheltenham. Look My Way made her work, but it was fairly comfortable for the ante-post JCB Triumph Hurdle favourite in the end.
The BHA are now publishing performance ratings on their site, as well as revised handicap marks, which is useful information. In this instance, Apple’s Shakira ran to a performance figure of 138, but, on her overall profile, she’s now considered a 146 horse.
That’s a number 9lb inferior to the one Defi Du Seuil carried into last year’s Triumph, but he had Grade One-winning form in the bag already, thanks to a wide-margin success in Chepstow’s Finale Hurdle.
It’s the only stick you can beat Apple’s Shakira with, really. She’s looked the standout performer in the division, but she has had three relatively easy assignments so far. Her form is lacking substance, but she shapes like a horse that will run to a higher level of form when required.
Quick over her obstacles, she travels well and finds plenty. A stronger gallop and better ground look likely to suit, although that is purely based on visual impression, for she has never run on anything other than testing ground.
She deserves to be favourite, but she’s not an ante-post proposition now. Generally the 3/1 market leader, it’s difficult to envisage her being much shorter come the day.
Sizing options increase after Timeform run
- Mister Whitaker >>>> Up 8lb to 137
- Theatre Territory >>>> Up 4lb to 132
- Sizing Tennessee >>>> Down 2lb to 145
Keeping an eye on the beaten horses has proved to be a profitable exercise in the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase in recent years.
Three beaten horses in the race have turned up at the Cheltenham Festival and won since 2013; Rajdhani Express improved from seventh to win the Novices’ Handicap at the Festival, Irish Cavalier was third on trials day and also won the Novices’ Handicap, while Un Temps Pour Tout was fourth in the Timeform in January before winning the Ultima in March.
Last year the trend almost extended to four in five, with Singlefarmpayment, brought down in this race on trials day, denied by a short head in the Ultima as Un Temps Pour Tout won the race for the second year running.
This year’s renewal of the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase attracted just a field of seven, with a few potential runners opting for the £50,000 more valuable handicap against more experienced horses run 35 minutes later.
Still, it looks solid form and it was run at a decent gallop, with Mister Whitaker and Theatre Territory pulling 15 lengths clear of the rest.
Mister Whitaker has gone up 8lb to 137, putting him right in the mix for the Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase on the opening day. He’s perfectly at home on better ground and he looks a big player in that race on this evidence, but he does have a job on to reverse Kempton form with Hell’s Kitchen.
Beaten a length and a half by Hell’s Kitchen (now rated 145 having been raised through collateral form) at Kempton on Boxing Day, as things stand Mister Whitaker will be trying to reverse form with that rival at Cheltenham 4lb worse off at the weights.
With that in mind, it could well be that yet again the horse or horses to take out of this are from those beaten in behind and Colin Tizzard’s Sizing Tennessee fits the bill this year.
Tizzard’s horses have not been running well and an eight per-cent win strike-rate for January is his worst in the National Hunt season proper since last March when the wheels came off following a sustained period of success in the months prior to that.
He bounced back in style last April at Aintree and he can do so again, with Sizing Tennessee the type of horse that could do really well this spring.
He’s proven on better ground, is an experienced novice with 10 chase starts under his belt and he’s shown his best form in his last three races as he’s really got to grips with his fences.
Considering how his stablemates have been running, Sizing Tennesse ran well at Cheltenham on Saturday when trying to concede 18lb and 22lb to the two horses that finished in front of him in testing conditions.
He only really faded out of contention from just before the last, where he understandably got tired. Dropped 2lb to 145, he now has a plethora of options at the Festival. Already entered in the JLT, RSA and National Hunt Chase, he now also qualifies for the Close Brothers and he’ll probably get an Ultima entry as well.
Whichever race connections plump for, he’s one to firmly keep on the radar for the Festival.
Sky Bet Odds (Non Runner No Bet): Close Brothers Novice Handicap Chase
Frodon firmly in Ryanair picture
- Frodon >>>> Up 10lb to 164
We knew Frodon liked the combination of testing ground and the Cheltenham hill after his win in the 2016 Caspian Caviar Gold Cup, but this was a coming of age performance.
Bryony Frost’s ever-increasingly generous 5lb claim, especially on steeplechasers, took him down to a mark of 149, the same number he won the Caspian Caviar off, and he fairly bolted up by 17 lengths, a tremendous performance in the conditions.
It was the best performance of his career by a long way, so much so he has to enter Ryanair calculations on this evidence. Up 10lb to 164, he’s right in the mix, although he would, in all likelihood, have to prove himself capable of matching this form on better ground.
You’d perhaps fear the likes of Top Notch would be too nippy for him on genuine spring ground. Indeed, that very horse beat him 10 lengths on Good to Soft ground at Ascot in November.
However, the Cheltenham factor can never be underestimated at the Festival. And this was Frodon’s first run at Cheltenham since that December Gold Cup win. He’s unbeaten on the New Course over fences with a record of 2/2 in two terrifically competitive handicaps, the Ryanair is run on the New Course and the 16/1 looks plenty big enough.
He has a touch of the Poquelin’s about him, for sure. Also trained by Nicholls, Poquelin won two December Gold Cups, was second in the race Frodon won on Saturday and finished second and fourth behind Alberta’s Run in two Ryanairs.
Red a tad underestimated in Gold Cup market
- Definitly Red >>>> Up 8lb to 167
Definitly Red is a general 20/1 for the Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup on the back of his BetBright Trial Cotswold Chase win and, on balance, he does look a little underestimated.
He won this well and, though you could argue American was ridden like a fragile horse and that Bristol De Mai hasn’t looked the same since his Betfair Chase romp, Brian Ellison’s horse is clearly thriving.
His last two performances have been the best of his career and he emphatically proved that Cheltenham, in January at least, holds no fears for him.
Whether he can do it on spring ground here is open to debate, but he’s won at a lesser level on better conditions and you couldn’t dismiss him totally from calculations with that as a sole reason.
A Gold Cup win for him would be the first for the north since Peter Beaumont’s Jodami won the 1993 renewal, while he would also be the first horse to win the Cotswold Chase and Gold Cup in the same season since Looks Like Trouble in 2000.
That latter stat is slightly worrying, as many horses have won this race in January and looked to have enhanced their Gold Cup claims before flopping in the main event.
But this year, he looks a player. A new mark of 167 puts him within 3lb of Sizing John, 2lb of Might Bite and there isn’t another horse among the entries rated higher.
The betting doesn’t reflect that and he should be shorter, even if his recent improvement has come on heavy ground.
Sky Bet Odds (Non Runner No Bet): Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup
Santini enters Albert Bartlett calculations
- Santini >>>> New entry at 150
This race has unearthed a few Cheltenham Festival winners since its inception and many a good horse as well.
Wichita Lineman won the race and the Spa Novices’ Hurdle in 2007, Bobs Worth did the same double four years later and then At Fishers Cross achieved the same feat in 2013. Yanworth and Wholestone won on trials day before finishing placed at the Festival the last two years.
Santini could well join the former list judging by his impressive start to life as a novice hurdler. A winner by over four lengths on his hurdling debut at Newbury in December, stablemate and runner-up Chef Des Obeaux has emphatically franked that form since with two victories including a 19-length win over three miles at Kempton.
On Saturday, Santini shaped as though three miles would bring about further improvement in him. He stayed on really well to reel in Black Op, the pair 29 lengths clear of some good horses in Aye Aye Charlie, Mulcahys Hill and Slate House.
A rating of 150 is unlikely to be bettered by many heading into the Albert Bartlett, with only Nicky Henderson’s tentative mutterings surrounding that entry a concern when you look at his very tempting odds of 12/1 for that race.
Henderson continues to insist he’s a horse for next year, hinting that this year’s Cheltenham isn’t really on his mind at this stage (“I suppose we’ll put him in the Albert Bartlett,” he said post-race at the weekend.)
But, if those plans are firmed up, he’s going to go off much shorter. His form is too good not to, as a rating of 150 after just two starts over hurdles suggests.
He has an eerily similar profile to Bobs Worth, a horse that was also lightly-raced when he won on trials day in 2011. That was just his third run over hurdles, he was also meant to be a chaser for the following year and he went onto win the Albert Bartlett (before very much being a chaser the following year, when he won the RSA Chase).
It would not be a surprise should Santini follow a very similar path.
Sky Bet Odds (Non Runner No Bet): Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle
Spinner has little to fear from the Cleeve
- Agrapart >>>> Up 7lb to 161
- Wholestone >>>> Up 6lb to 161
A horse that won’t be following up his trials day win at the Festival is Agrapart. Not unless it’s heavy ground with a very wet forecast in the weeks leading up to Cheltenham. In that case, Nick Williams might be tempted to supplement, perhaps, for the Stayers’ Hurdle. In a heavy ground Stayers’ Hurdle he’d certainly have a good chance.
That’s probably not going to happen, though, so it’s to the beaten horses in the Cleeve we go for Stayers’ Hurdle clues. Wholestone ran well and this is further evidence that he likes Cheltenham and that he stays three miles.
He’ll have to prove himself on better ground at this level, but a mark of 161 shows he’s progressing to the sort of number that many a staying hurdler has been crowned off. He will have to improve again, though, if he’s to challenge a peak-form Sam Spinner.
At 16/1 he looks about right and perhaps more interesting from the Cleeve also-rans is The Worlds End at double those odds for the Stayers’ Hurdle. Beaten 16 lengths in the end, he has a lot to find on the bare form but he really could improve plenty on spring ground considering his best runs as a novice.
Denied a clear run at a crucial point in the Cleeve at the weekend, he could leave this form well behind at the Festival even if he will have plenty to find on official ratings from his current mark of 152.
As for Finian’s Oscar, criticism of Colin Tizzard regarding the campaigning of this horse seems hugely unjustified.
Tizzard had his greatest season yet just last year and it was largely due to not pigeon-holing his horses in terms of distance and discipline that he was rewarded, particularly when Thistlecrack won the King George as a novice following a bold roll of the dice.
Trainers are all too often criticised when they hardly run their stable stars before the Cheltenham Festival but Tizzard isn’t afraid to run his best horses if they are fit and able and Finian’s Oscar has turned out five times this season.
His latest roll of the dice, reverting to hurdles, backfired, but at least he learnt that the Stayers’ Hurdle is not his race. At least now his novice status as a steeplechaser won’t be wasted and, only six-years-old, running in the JLT at the Festival will be an important part of his development.
An incredibly hyped up horse, at least in part due to his hefty price tag, Finian’s Oscar has often gone off shorter than he should’ve done. It seems the tide might be turning somewhat with him now in that regard, though, as odds of 16/1 for the JLT suggest.
That is a huge price on his form over fences. There won’t be many horses, if any, with better chasing form at around 2m5f considering his win at Cheltenham in November and his second to Benatar at Ascot, where he gave a very good horse 5lb for a short head.
A wind operation, a bit of spring ground and, knowing his trainer’s philosophy, another run to boost his confidence somewhere could do him the world of good. I wouldn’t write him off for top honours in the spring over fences just yet, that’s for sure.
Remilluc gets his reward
- Remilluc >>>> Up 5lb to 144 (hurdles), Up 3lb to 127 (fences)
The consistent Remilluc got just reward for an excellent set of form figures this season (4U3222) when he deservedly got a first win of the campaign under his belt in the Steel Plate And Sections Handicap Hurdle that closed the card on trials day.
He did get the run of the race having been handed at least a seven-length start along with long-time leader Our Merlin from the beginning, but Harry Reed timed things perfectly and ensured his mount had enough in the tank to repel any challengers up the hill.
Up 5lb to 144 over hurdles, connections could well exploit his much lower fences rating in the closing months of the season. Raised just 3lb to 127 in that sphere, he’d be of interest in a novices’ handicap chase.
Chris Gordon mentioned a race of that nature at Plumpton on February 12 for him but, given his record at Newbury, I wonder if the novices’ handicap chase at the track on Betfair Hurdle day (won last year by Final Nudge) might end up being on his agenda.