In this week's 'Weights & Measures' blog, Ben Linfoot rounds up the adjusted official ratings following Ascot, Haydock and more.
Waiting Patiently climbs to the top
- Waiting Patiently >>>> Up 6lb to 170
- Cue Card >>>> Remains on 166
- Frodon >>>> Down 2lb to 162
- Top Notch >>>> Down 2lb to 162
Waiting Patiently oozed class in a proper Grade One at Ascot on Saturday and his performance was arguably the best of the season so far, in Britain at least.
Up 6lb to an official BHA rating of 170 following an identical performance figure, only Bristol De Mai’s Betfair Chase romp has been rated higher this campaign.
That was considered a performance good enough to raise his rating to 173 at the time, but subsequent events have seen him drop 8lb to 165 leaving Waiting Patiently the only horse in Britain to be rated in the 170s due to a performance from the current season.
A trio of Nicky Henderson-trained runners have gone close with Altior’s recent Newbury performance figure at 169, the same as Might Bite’s King George and 2lb ahead of Whisper’s 167 gained following a gallant weight-carrying performance when runner-up in the Ladbrokes Trophy.
But there he is, Waiting Patiently, at the top of the charts, a product of the late Malcolm Jefferson’s skill and patience. He’s come through the ranks, been tenderly brought along and has yet to sight Cheltenham, or Aintree for that matter.
It is refreshing that the Cheltenham Festival is not the be all and end all for connections, but it would be a shame, in my opinion, if the current best horse in the country is not at the sport’s showpiece event.
You wouldn’t think it’s the track at Cheltenham that is the concern, not for a horse that has cut his teeth around the undulations of Sedgefield and Carlisle.
It’s more likely to be the anticipated better ground, even though he glided over Kempton’s good to soft in a graduation chase in the middle of January.
That puts a potential season finale in the Melling Chase in doubt, too, but hopefully we will see him again this campaign. On this evidence he’d have a favourite’s chance in the Ryanair and he could be sent off at prohibitive odds for a Melling were he to pitch up at Liverpool having avoided a battle at Cheltenham.
Long term Ruth Jefferson has cited the King George as his main target for next season, a race that should tick his ground and flat track boxes. He’s yet to tackle three miles, but on Saturday’s evidence, where he handled a fiercely-run 2m5f with aplomb, you wouldn’t think it would bother him.
Having said that, he travels so well I’d still think he’d cope with a soft-ground two miles at the highest level. He just looks very good, as you would have to be to beat a back-to-form Cue Card.
Colin Tizzard’s 12-year-old tried to utilise his proven stamina for further on Saturday and it worked to some degree, with all bar Waiting Patiently comfortably beaten off, horses like Top Notch and Frodon who were in-form horses at their optimum trip beaten in behind.
So, there’s life in old Cue Card yet, a 166 performance figure a great testament to his ability and endurance, especially on the back of a couple of disappointing runs.
He’s gone into the Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup in better form than this, though, twice before, and failed to cut the mustard. It has to be rated doubtful he can raise the roof at his final Festival, but what a story it would be for a horse that has given so much to the game for the last eight years.
Top 10 Horses in Britain 2017-18
Waiting Patiently 170
Altior 170
Might Bite 169
Fox Norton 168
Un De Sceaux 167
Definitly Red 167
Whisper 167
Cue Card 166
Native River 166
Double Shuffle 166
Corton enhances RSA claims
- Black Corton >>>> Remains on 155
Black Corton’s astonishing season continued in the Sodexo Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase at Ascot on Saturday and he could easily have gone up a few pounds rather than remaining on 155.
Ms Parfois is an in-form mare that ran right up to her best and she looks fully deserving of her 146 rating after this, with the 140-rated and previously 144-rated Mount Mews four lengths behind in third.
So for Black Corton to give her 7lb and beat her eight lengths pretty easily was impressive, especially considering Paul Nicholls reported him to have had two weeks’ box rest in the lead up to Ascot without doing a great deal of work.
Already a massive player in the RSA Chase, it was no surprise to see him half in price again after this. With more experience over fences than most of his likely RSA rivals put together – and with Cheltenham old course experience in the bag as well – he’s by far the strongest British challenger.
The way his Kauto Star Novices’ Chase form has been working out, with Elegant Escape and Ballyoptic winning since, it’s clear he’s developed into one of the best novice chasers on either side of the Irish Sea.
If he comes on from this, as Nicholls more than hinted he would, Presenting Percy will have to be everything his connections hope he is to see him off in the RSA. It’s shaping up to be a cracking race.
Sky Bet Odds (Non Runner No Bet): RSA Novices' Chase
Encore warms up for National test
- Regal Encore >>>> Up 4lb to 154
The Randox Health Grand National weights were unveiled last week and with two months to go until the big race the Horses-Advertising-That-They-Are-Well-In-For-The-Aintree-Spectacular season has begun.
Last year’s eighth, Regal Encore, is first up and the Ladbrokes Trophy third confirmed he is in the form of his life with an impressive enough success over Minella Daddy, the second time that particular straight forecast has come in over three miles at Ascot.
When he was eighth in the National last year he crept into things from off the pace, but perhaps he will be ridden more positively this time around now he’s got track experience under his belt.
He’ll go there in better form than last year, 4lb well-in at the weights, and looks fairly priced at 33/1 and above with that in mind.
There will be stronger form than this small-field Ascot win going into the National, though, and plenty of horses even better in at the weights following their exploits in the coming weeks. I look forward to those emerging as we head into Cheltenham and beyond.
Chef serves up a further Santini form boost
- Yala Enki >>>> Up 6lb to 152
- Blaklion >>>> Remains on 161
- Chef Des Obeaux >>>> Up 5lb to 150
The Betfred Grand National Trial Handicap Chase may yet house the hero of the main event, even as unlikely as that sounds when the 54-length winner was the only horse in the race without an entry for Aintree.
Yala Enki excelled over the sternest test of stamina he’d ever faced and has gone up 6lb for his troubles with runner-up Blaklion, still Grand National favourite with some firms, left alone on 161 despite being well beaten in second.
This was a far from ideal preparation for Aintree, even with two months to get ready for the race, and his travails under a big weight in a small field here could well be an indication of the size of the task he faces in Liverpool.
Conditions will in all likelihood be very different there and he loves the unique fences, but winning a National off 161 looks an extremely tough assignment for this horse. He’s much better than this, however, and will probably prove as much at Aintree in April, even if that’s with a gallant display in defeat.
Later on the Albert Bartlett trial was won by Nicky Henderson’s Chef Des Obeaux, a horse that looked all stamina as he prevailed in the testing conditions.
Up 5lb to 150, he’s bang in the Albert Bartlett picture following three victories in a row, but he also keeps on boosting the Newbury form of stablemate Santini, a horse that beat him over four lengths on December 1.
Jockey bookings for the pair will be fascinating should both line up in a race Henderson last won with subsequent RSA Chase and Gold Cup hero Bobs Worth, back in 2011.
Sky Bet Odds (Non Runner No Bet): Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle
Elgin up 11lb after Kingwell victory
- Elgin >>>> Up 11lb to 161
Given we don’t know which Faugheen will turn up in the Champion Hurdle it’s looking a pretty weak division behind Buveur d’Air, so when a Kingwell Hurdle winner bolts up by over two lengths giving weight away to two rivals rated in the 150s we have to sit up and take notice.
The rise of Elgin seems to have taken Alan King by surprise, so much so he isn’t even entered in the Champion Hurdle. But at Wincanton on Saturday King intimated he would be supplemented and with the handicapper raising him 11lb to 161 you would think he has forced his hand.
If you ignore his Ascot run on December 23 Elgin looks really progressive and he has improved with each run this season. With a Greatwood Hurdle under his belt he has some course form to his name, and, though he’ll have to improve again just to place in a Champion Hurdle, he is only six and could well find more.
Sky Bet Odds (Non Runner No Bet): Champion Hurdle
Hike Of The Week
- Vision Des Flos >>>> Up 12lb to 147
Colin Tizzard is back and his yard are heading into Cheltenham in much better shape than last year, even if it doesn’t really feel like that given the high-profile disappointments from some of his star names.
The absence of Thistlecrack is an obvious blow while Finian’s Oscar’s blowout in the Cleeve Hurdle didn’t help matters from a big gun point of view, either, but away from the limelight Tizzard’s numbers have a very healthy look about them.
Heading into March last year Tizzard had had 43 winners for the season, but this time around he’s on 55 with Vision Des Flos helping the statistic with his recent win at Exeter.
A wind operation and a first-time tongue-tie brought about serious improvement in this €270,000 purchase as he sauntered clear for a 31-length success over Nick Williams’ Mercenaire last week.
Up 12lb to 147, in a normal year he’d be a massive player in the Ballymore and he still might be, but the looming presence of Samcro will dwarf everyone and everything in the build-up to that race.
Still, better ground and the step back up in trip are unlikely to trouble this son of Balko and he has at least been confirmed as on track for the race unlike so many of those above him in the betting.
With Samcro likely to scare plenty off, Vision Des Flos at 25s and 33s doesn’t look the worst each-way bet in the world - if trying to steal a bit of place money against a Cheltenham hotpot is your sort of thing.
Three down five to monitor...
- Cliffs Of Dover >>>> Down 5lb to 140
- Bally Longford >>>> Down 5lb to 126
- Templeross >>>> Down 5lb to 122
Finally, three to keep an eye on as they slide down the rankings…
Down 5lb to 140… Cliffs Of Dover, who tore off like a scalded cat in the Kingwell on his first start for 14 months. He was never going to get home after that and was inevitably pulled up in the end, but the handicapper lets him into a 0-140 now and he’ll be interesting off his new mark considering the best of his form from the start of last season.
Down 5lb to 126… Bally Longford, another that was pulled up – this time at Sandown on Friday. He’d prefer better conditions, though, and he’s now dropped to a mark 10lb lower than when Colin Tizzard got his hands on him. He’s handicapped to win a prize in the spring and isn’t worth giving up on just yet.
Down 5lb to 122… Templeross, for Nigel Twiston-Davies. The first-time-visor failed to perk him up as he finished a 22-length ninth at Ascot, but he’s been dropped to a really competitive mark now. Three starts ago he was rated 131 and was pulled up behind Sam Spinner and he’s been kept to relatively hot company all season. A drop in class awaits him from his new rating and that could well be the deciding factor that sees him bounce back to some sort of form.
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Related horse racing links
- Weights & Measures: Newbury
- Weights & Measures: Cheltenham (Jan)
- Weights & Measures: Kempton & more
- Weights & Measures: Sandown & more
- Weights & Measures: Festive round-up
- Weights & Measures: Cheltenham (Dec)
- Weights & Measures: Sandown & Aintree
- Weights & Measures: Haydock & Ascot
- Weights & Measures: Cheltenham (Nov)
- Sky Bet's antepost racing odds