Military Order can go well in the Winter Derby

Weekend Racing: Expert Panel on the action from Kempton, Southwell and Newcastle

By Sporting Life

Horse Racing

Sat February 24, 2024 · 2y ago

David Ord, Ian Ogg and Matt Brocklebank tackle some of the key questions heading into this weekend's racing.

There are three Grade 2 novice/juvenile events at Kempton this Saturday - is there a horse on your radar for the Pendil Novices' Chase, Dovecote Novices' Hurdle or the Adonis?

Ian Ogg: He's the lowest rated runner in the Dovecote but Helnewin hasn't had many opportunities and has been off since appearing to get stuck in the mud in a Sandown Listed contest. That was only a three runner affair and his Warwick win hasn't worked out all that well but he looked good in the Midlands when confirming the promise he showed in bumpers and I'm hopeful that he can prove he belongs at this level.

David Ord: I'm really looking forward to seeing Arclight run in the Pendil. Nicky Henderson's mare has been electric over fences so far and looked ready for a test such as this when winning at Wincanton last time. This is another step up but we haven't seen the best of her yet and this track plays to her strengths.

Matt Brocklebank: I like the look of Givemefive, who has taken to hurdles like the proverbial duck. He really attacks the obstacles and impressed me with his all-the-way win under a penalty at Warwick when making it 2-2 last time. He gets 5lb from the well-regarded, long-term prospect Kalif Du Berlais in the Adonis and might just take some pegging back.

Is there a bet to be had in one of the Saturday handicaps?

Ian Ogg: Sea Invasion made it into my festive eyecatchers column so has to get a shout out on his handicap debut! To be honest, it's a little surprising to see him pitched in at such an exalted level (0-140) when Chris Gordon, who won this race in 2022, could have had his pick of lower grade handicaps from a rating of 113 and Sea Invasion will have to race from out of the weights but the track and trip will suit and the yard has recently rediscovered its mojo.

David Ord: I want to be with Fenland Tiger in the Eider. He arrives here on the up, has shown he likes the track and there's further improvement to come as he steps up to this marathon trip. True, he's short on experience over fences but he's three from four over the larger obstacles and seven from eight in handicaps full stop. There's more to come too.

Matt Brocklebank: Bowtogreatness is definitely on the shortlist in Kempton's Coral Trophy Handicap Chase. Trainer Ben Pauling could hardly be in better nick and this fella goes back up in trip after finding Ginny's Destiny and co a bit too hot to handle over the intermediate distance at Cheltenham's Trials Day. He was second to Midnight River over the extended three miles at Aintree last spring and is now only 1lb higher than for that effort in the ratings.

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What's caught your eye among the ITV4 action from Southwell?

Ian Ogg: He hasn't stood a lot of racing but it will be good to see 2022 Guineas fourth Eydon back on the course and hopefully his new yard will have a clear run with him. The stable are going great guns but it would be a bit much to expect him to go close on his return whereas the claims of Clarendon House in the sprint are crystal clear. He appears to have been transformed by a gelding operation, breaking the C&D track record in December before acquitting himself well at Meydan, and there may be more to come.

David Ord: It's an intriguing Winter Derby but I'm siding with Military Order. True, he let a good opportunity slip when touched off by Enemy in the trial for this last month. However he impressed with how he went through the race and rallied close home having handed the lead to the winner by lunging left. Danny Tudhope now has experience of riding him and that could be significant too.

Matt Brocklebank: No shortage of quality on the Winter Derby card at Southwell and in the principal race I can see Tyrrhenian Sea going really well for Roger Varian and Jack Mitchell. He's yet to race at this track but has a pronounced knee action which leads me to believe he'll be well suited to the surface and I thought he was value for a bit more than the three-quarter-length margin when winning the Listed Quebec Stakes at Lingfield when last seen. I'm pretty certain he'll stay the extra furlong here.

Give us one other runner of note anywhere this weekend...

Ian Ogg: Turn the clock back a year and Thanksforthehelp won the Pertemps Qualifier at Chepstow in a canter. He was made the 100/30 favourite for the final at the Cheltenham Festival and ran okay at Prestbury Park, finishing in midfield and only beaten eight lengths. He's only seven with just 10 starts under his belt so there's potential for further progress and the market may well provide a guide to expectations on this first start since pulling up at Haydock in May.

David Ord: A very late Pertemps Qualifier at Naas and it's no surprise to see Cleatus Poolaw in there. He's entered in the final and this is his chance to book a ticket with a top four finish. He has plenty of other options next month but the way he's shaped over two-and-a-half miles so far suggests he'll relish this stamina test. He could be Pertemps favourite by the time the weekend is out.

Matt Brocklebank: Having put up Chemical Energy for the Grand National in midweek, I was obviously looking for a positive showing from him in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse with this race looking to fit nicely timing-wise but he hasn't been declared with the ground probably not ideal. One who has been declared is Kim Muir market leader Good Time Jonny; winner of the Pertemps Final last year, his chasing career is a work in progress but he should have learned a good deal from his fifth behind Heart Wood over two miles five earlier in the month and victory here, back up in trip, could serve as a nice confidence booster.

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