Epatante dead-heated for first in the Fighting Fifth
Epatante dead-heated for first in the Fighting Fifth

Watch & Learn: Timefigure analysis from Graeme North | Star mares shine


Plenty of action for our star analyst Graeme North to go through from the weekend and Honeysuckle wasn't the only mare to impress on the timefigures.

Jumps season finally in top gear

Whether or not the current jumps season has started ‘for real’ has been a valid topic of discussion over the past few weeks, but last weekend’s action signalled - to me at least - that the campaign is finally approaching something resembling full throttle, even if we will have to wait another month or so to see Shishkin again after his trainer Nicky Henderson waved the white flag ahead of a potentially gruelling clash with Ireland’s top two-miler Chacun Pour Soi at Sandown on Saturday.

Newbury’s Ladbrokes Trophy Festival and Fairyhouse’s Winter Festival both provided plenty of good action over their respective two days, as they did in 2020 when Fairyhouse was the better pointer to Cheltenham success in March.

Then, Honeysuckle and Monkfish both went on to win from Fairyhouse, as might have Envoi Allen too had he stood up, while other winners Ballyadam and Concertista went on to finish runner-up. Next Destination fared best of the Newbury winners by going on to fill a runner-up spot himself, though some will argue too that Thyme Hill might have won the Stayers Hurdle had he not missed the meeting. Whatever the ifs and buts, with that record in mind we’ll start at Fairyhouse.

The bigger of the two days at Fairyhouse was the Grade 1 loaded Bar One Racing sponsored Sunday card in which the feature event, the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle, went to reigning Champion Hurdler Honeysuckle for the third consecutive year. Successful from Bacardys in 2019 in a timefigure of 130 and a finishing speed of 103.1%, Honeysuckle showed her versatility last year by edging out Ronald Pump and Beacon Edge in a 45 timefigure alongside a 114% finishing speed.

This year’s running saw her take on Ronald Pump again, and she stretched her advantage this time to eight lengths in a strongly-run affair (timefigure 153, finishing speed 98.4%) that ended up a more representative reflection of their respective merits. The time of Honeysuckle’s race from the second-last hurdle to the winning line was just over 28 seconds, by far the slowest of the four hurdles for that section on the day, but even so she still managed to run the final circuit faster than the other hurdle winners on the card.

Her dominant win confirmed that she’s the one to continue to beat in this division, even if Epatante’s Fighting Fifth dead heat - more of which later - means she might not have things quite her own way this time round in the Champion Hurdle.

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Triumph favourite has questions to answer

The earlier Grade 3 juvenile hurdle won by Fil Dor (timefigure 94) and the Grade 1 Royal Bond Novice Hurdle won by Statuaire (101) were run in steady and almost identical fractions until the fields had taken the fifth hurdle, after which the juveniles found themselves a second ahead crossing the sixth and seventh, only to find the novices in the Grade 1 making up all of that deficit and almost another second besides on the run to the second last.

That hard burst took its toll on the runners in the Royal Bond, with the finishing time from the second last ending up well over a second and a half slower than the juveniles. Fil Dor looked to me to win with something in hand, but the field he beat wasn’t strong and he doesn’t deserve to be as short as 5/1 for the Triumph. The Royal Bond certainly had more strength in depth, and My Mate Mozzie looked an unlucky loser behind one that is now second favourite for the Mares' Novice Hurdle. The best long-term prospect (surely a chaser) judged by the size of him might well be Mighty Potter, however, who also looked the most inconvenienced by the pace increase before coming home strongest of all.

There were three chases on the same card and Beacon Edge edged a corking finish to the standout Grade 1 Drinmore Novice Chase, though his win looked extremely unlikely until the very closing strides. A timefigure of 148 and a finishing speed of 93.8% both illustrate just what a punishingly-run race this was, with the free-going bold-jumping Gabynako increasingly running faster at every fence than the front-running winner of the opening chase Alohamora had managed until the pace finally started to collapse approaching the second last (Gabynako was still almost seven and a half seconds faster than the Alohamora at that point timed from the first fence jumped, or around 30 lengths in old money).

Beacon Edge has always struck me as an out-and-out three miler for all he’s rarely been given the chance to prove it, and he certainly needed reserves of stamina to pull this one out of the bag for the in-form Noel Meade. Gabynako would surely have won, however, had he not made a mess of three of the last five fences and even though he’s improving fast, his good effort gives me hope that Noble Yeats, who I bigged up here after he beat Gabynako first time up at Galway over an inadequate trip but who has since been campaigned rather bizarrely, still has in in him to win a big prize soon whether over fences or back over hurdles.

The previous day Gringo D’Aubrelle and Grangee (surprisingly short in the betting for the Mares' Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham) won the two divisions of the maiden hurdle on Saturday but Chemical Energy, with no My Mate Mozzie to contend with here and an extra half mile to cover, took the honours on the clock with a 132 timefigure and a final circuit time nearly two seconds faster than Broomfields Jeremy managed in the good handicap hurdle over the same trip in the preceding race. Confidence in him might be higher in him though if it wasn’t for his form dropping off last year after Christmas.

Newbury novice review

Over at Newbury there were three intriguing hurdles on Friday, starting with a two-and-a-half mile novice that has been won by Santini and Bravemansgame in recent seasons. I don’t doubt that the winner this time around, Stage Star, is a decent prospect too.

He’d looked promising when posting a 122 timefigure on his hurdles debut at Chepstow but took his form to a new level here, recording a 134 without being extended. Indeed, his closing sectional from three out was just half a second slower than that the one posted by the much-hyped Jonbon in a far more steadily-run race (timefigure 55) over a shorter trip and pretty much identical from two out.

Jonbon was made favourite for the Sky Bet Supreme after his win, but doubtless Kilcruit and Sir Gerhard could have dismissed the runner-up equally as if not more easily and given that the field dawdled early after finally passing the starter Jonbon’s finishing sectional might have been expected to have been a bit more impressive even if he was racing a fair bit within himself.

Thomas Darby stayed on strongest to burgle a Long Distance Hurdle in which the leaders - eventual runner-up On The Blind Side and third Paisley Park notably -over exerted themselves between the fourth last and the last, so opening the door. Given On The Blind Side has never looked top class before, I doubt this race will have too much relevance on the Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle.

Papa looks interesting at Exeter

Saturday’s card kicked off with two impressive winners, Elle Est Belle in the Listed Mares’ Novice Hurdle in a timefigure of 123 and Ahoy Senor in the John Francome Novices Chase in a timefigure of 142.

As those figures suggest, neither race was an out-and-out stamina test with Elle Est Belle pretty much matching the time the 133-rated Onemorefortheroad (who was carrying 6lb less) managed from the final flight in a sprint finish to the Gerry Fielden later in the day.

Ahoy Senor’s final circuit was preceded by a much slower cross fence to water jump section than in either the following handicap or the Ladbroke Trophy, allowing him to get into a good rhythm out in front without having to go too hard, all the same posting some quite impressive closing fractions to put himself in the frame for the Festival Novices Chase (I suspect he’s a million to one to run in the National Hunt Chase, despite one ante-post recommendation I read in the Racing Post).

The Ladbroke was run at a very demanding gallop with the pace-setting 2020 winner Cloth Cap falling away to nothing after three out, leaving only Cloudy Glen and Fiddlerontheroof (who won the intermediate chase at Carlisle last month in which Ahoy Senor unseated) to raise a gallop at the line in a slow-motion 97.6% finishing speed finish over two seconds slower from two out than Ahoy Senor.

As an aside, it’s worth bearing in mind that Papa Tango Charly, who is entered at Exeter on Friday, not only ran around a second and a half faster than Fiddlerontheroof when winning on the same card over the same trip at Carlisle last month but unusually also came home faster from two out. If Fiddlerontheroof can run such a good race off 150 – he’s now 159 after the latest updates - I suspect Papa Tango Charly is thrown in off 138 at Exeter.

2020 Champion Hurdle winner Epatante had looked set for a stellar season when winning the Fighting Fifth last year, but never repeated that form despite reaching the frame in all her subsequent runs. A share of the spoils with Not So Sleepy, who’d finished three lengths behind her in the 2021 Champion, was a satisfactory comeback in the latest renewal given she was messed around with a couple of times after travelling best, and her 149 timefigure is second only to that she posted in her Champion Hurdle win. It’s good to see her back to something like her best.

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