Our top analyst and timefigure expert with his thoughts on the big weekend action at Newbury and Warwick.
Warwick not Newbury for the key trial
Hearing all last week that the big clash coming up on a weekend that remembered two Newbury greats, Denman and Game Spirit, was not even at the Berkshire track but at Warwick, where Edwardstone was renewing rivalry with Third Time Lucki in the Kingmaker, served as a reminder how short on quality (and quantity too, judging by the field sizes across both cards as well as at the inaugural Winter Millions Series two weeks ago) weekends over jumps early in the New Year have become.
In addition showcase midweek meetings, unlike on the Flat, are now almost totally absent.
It wasn’t always this way. Joe Porter (@Joe Porter1990) and Going Behind (@GoingBehind) both post old newspaper snippets or vintage media racing memorabilia regularly on Twitter and both reminded me independently in the last few days about this same week back in 1996, when Ascot hosted a deep card on Wednesday that saw two of its four winners that went on to run at Cheltenham reach a place (Mr Mulligan in what was then the Sun Alliance and Comet Man in the Queen Mother).
Indeed, anyone wanting a brief trip down memory lane until next weekend comes along is advised to check out @GoingBehind’s post on Monday (February 14) that links to some Youtube footage of that exact Ascot card, back in the days when it was covered by the BBC and bad weather caused postponements!
Edwardstone’s four-and-a-quarter length defeat of Third Time Lucki saw him elevated to the head of the market for the Sporting Life Arkle, and he may well win that race, of course.
I have something of a soft spot for him, exasperated by the stress he gave me when rewarding my support in the seven-places Sky Bet Supreme Betfair Exchange market by securing the last spot available. I thought he was a shoo-in for the seven that day!
I've been impressed by his ability to churn out consistently high ratings and timefigures (his 160 in the Kingmaker was the third time this season he has reached that level) in his short career over fences so far.
The trends guys will point to the Kingmaker not being a great Arkle trial in recent years with most of those that made it there after winning at Warwick (or Sandown when the race was rerouted there) effectively also rans, but on the flip side, the last horse to do the double, Voy Por Ustedes, was also trained by Alan King and had a very similar profile going into the Kingmaker.
King might also have repeated the feat with Balder Success in 2014 had he run in the Arkle instead of running next in the Doom Bar Maghull at Aintree, which he won readily, so the precedents are there.
There was only one other chase at Warwick on Saturday with which to compare the Kingmaker, a handicap chase over half a mile further won by the Timeform 136-rated Celebre D’Allen carrying 8lb less, and what the inter-fence sectionals convey is that after running the distance between the first and second fences in the straight first time round pretty much in the same time, the two-milers put increasing amounts of time between themselves and the later race at every checkpoint, as might be expected with For Pleasure setting the fractions, until the very closing stages.
Unlimited Replays
of all UK and Irish races with our Race Replays
Discover Sporting Life Plus Benefits
Being held up off a strong pace suits Edwardstone ideally, so with Riviere D’Etel taking For Pleasure’s place in the Arkle (and he might yet turn up there himself, of course, having outrun expectations in last year’s Sky Bet Supreme) Edwardstone would appear to have everything in place for a big run.
I’m not sure that entitles him to be quite such a clear favourite, however, with Blue Lord as well as Riviere d’Etel both more talented opponents over fences than Third Time Lucki, as I see it.
Denman, of course, won the Gold Cup on top of his two victories in the Hennessy, while nine-time Newbury winner Game Spirit never won at the Festival but did finish third in the Gold Cup two years before he was runner-up in the Champion Chase.
Allen team should go for Gold
At the time of writing, it seems certain that the winner of the Game Spirit, Funambule Sivola, will head for the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase himself, though less so whether Eldorado Allen will make the Gold Cup as he’ll need to be supplemented.
Of the pair, Eldorado Allen ran the better Cheltenham trial for the lately bang-in-form Colin Tizzard team on a belated first try at just short of three miles. For all the ground might not have been as soft as Royale Pagaille might have appreciated, on top of Clan Des Obeaux might now need more severe headgear and De Rasher Counter, the only other finisher, probably needing his first run for well over a year, a 163 timefigure tells me this form shouldn’t be taken at all lightly, as it appears to have been in some circles.
Second in the 2021 Arkle, Eldorado Allen was scoring for the first time since his reappearance in the Haldon Gold Cup, but his timefigure profile has been steadily climbing towards top class for the best part of two years now and given he has plenty of stamina in his pedigree there must be a good chance he’ll be even better still over the Gold Cup trip.
Unlimited Replays
of all UK and Irish races with our Race Replays
Discover Sporting Life Plus BenefitsIf he was mine, I’d be supplementing him for the Gold Cup where he is unlikely to have to run to the sort of figure he would against an on-song Allaho, besides which his speed at shorter would come in handy if the ground is as quick as it has been for the last couple of years and they amble around as they did in 2020.
Oddly enough, Eldorado Allen and Funambule Sivola have already met once this season, in the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon in December, when Funambule Sivola got the better of the argument by almost two lengths, though the placings would surely have been reversed that day behind the winner First Flow had Eldorado Allen not made an uncharacteristic bad error down the far side before staying on strongly.
In hindsight, that race, over almost two and a half miles, was too far for Funambule Sivola (though it didn’t stop him being tried at even further next time) and not far enough for Eldorado Allen.
Funambule Sivola’s last five runs at the minimum trip have yielded four wins and a second place behind Shishkin in the Doom Bar Maghull at Aintree, and I wrote in this column at the end of last year he looked a fair shout for a place in the long-range Champion Chase markets, not least those betting without Shishkin and Energumene.
That last observation still stands, though I’m not convinced that he advanced his claims all that much by beating the good but not top-class Sceau Royal by two lengths in receipt of 6lb in a 147 timefigure. Still, he’s well worth his place in the field.
Unlimited Replays
of all UK and Irish races with our Race Replays
Discover Sporting Life Plus BenefitsHow good is Bravemansgame?
Earlier in the day, Bravemansgame had maintained his unbeaten record over fences with a smooth win in the novice handicap chase over Pats Fancy who was coming into the race himself on the back of consecutive wins.
Whether or not you agree his BHA mark of 159 was deserved or not, it was the first time a novice had overcome that rating since 2011 when Philip Hobbs sent Wishfull Thinking over to Ireland (how times have changed) to win a Grade A handicap at the Punchestown Festival.
Unlimited Replays
of all UK and Irish races with our Race Replays
Discover Sporting Life Plus BenefitsThird in last year’s Ballymore behind Bob Olinger and Gaillard Du Mesnil, Bravemansgame has Festival form in the book, but looking ahead to his March prospects I’d be slightly worried that each of his four races over fences have been contested by just four runners and he’ll face a completely different scenario at Cheltenham.
All the same, a 158 timefigure stacks up well with what Eldorado Allen achieved over the same trip as well as with the best of the novice chasers this season with only Galopin Des Champs (161) and the out-for-the-season Ferny Hollow (163) as well as Edwardstone having run faster.
Any chance of Champion Hurdle glory?
The main action of the weekend over the smaller obstacles was the Betfair Hurdle, which disappointingly attracted only 14 runners, the joint-smallest field this century along with the 2019 running won by the Nigel Twiston-Davies-trained Al Dancer.
Twiston-Davies has won this race three times since 2014, all with novices, and only a short head stopped him winning it again this year with another as his I Like To Move It couldn’t quite peg back the more prominently ridden Glory And Fortune in a cracking finish.
Unlimited Replays
of all UK and Irish races with our Race Replays
Discover Sporting Life Plus BenefitsMuch like Eldorado Allen, Glory And Fortune has a largely-upward timefigure profile and his 148 here eclipsed his previous best of 143 which he posted splitting Epatante and Soaring Glory in the Christmas Hurdle at the end of 2021.
His chances of beating an on-song Honeysuckle in the Champion are obviously fairly slim, but her aside, the race for second place is wide open and Not So Sleepy wasn’t beaten far in the 2021 Champion having won a handicap off a mark of 142 (1lb less than Glory And Fortune) on his previous start.
From a timefigure perspective, there wasn’t much of interest for once over in Ireland last week, save perhaps for Ciel De Neige who showed enough at Punchestown in winning his third chase on the trot to enter the fringe picture for the Arkle.
A 148 timefigure is upgraded to 150 after sectionals are taken into account, which still undercooks what he might have achieved had he not won with so much in hand. He finished just over two lengths behind Edwardstone in the County last year carrying 8lb less, so has improvement to find, but is less experienced over fences so might yet improve a bit more.
Unlimited Replays
of all UK and Irish races with our Race Replays
Discover Sporting Life Plus Benefits