Graeme North analyses a big weekend of action in England and Ireland and has horses to note from elsewhere.
Skelton winners need to find more
Several people I know well say that last Sunday’s Greatwood card (or Shloer card, or Skelton brothers 2021 benefit, depending on your take) at Cheltenham is their favourite days’ racing of the year to attend.
I can’t vouch for that, never having been to Cheltenham’s November three-day meeting, or there on any other occasion for that matter other than a solitary hunter chase evening when I was a young lad learning his way in the sport, but it was an enjoyable watch to be sure even if Festival clues were rather thin on the ground.
Doubtless, Threeunderthrufive, I Like To Move It, West Cork and Nube Negra will all be back here in March all being well, but the opposition they will face then will be a couple of levels up at least from what they encountered on Sunday.
Nube Negra, who was arguably unlucky not to have beaten Put The Kettle On in the last season’s Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase, exacted his revenge in no uncertain terms in the Shloer seeing off the 2020 Tingle Creek winner Politologue in the process too, but with all four runners making their seasonal reappearance and the pace being a modest one – Threeunderthrufive in the three-miler ran the section from the third fence in the Nube Negra’s race to the final fence just over a second slower – whether the form amounts to much is up for discussion.
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The 2022 Champion Chase is sure to be a much stronger renewal than the 2021 affair in any case and Nube Negra, whose best timefigure over fences remains 151, probably needs to up his game by another 10-15lb to be properly competitive against likes of Shishkin and Energumene.
De Bromhead has another Arkle hope
Back in 2018 I remember backing Nube Negra in the Fred Winter. He ran well (but not quite well enough!), finishing third, and I was reminded again on Saturday just how much some horses are biding their time over hurdles when watching another former Fred Winter contestant, this time last season’s seventh Riviere D’Etel, bolt up at Punchestown.
Despite running the distance from the first fence jumped in her race to three out nearly 16 seconds faster than the 139-rated French Dynamite managed in the opener – that’s more than a whole furlong faster in imperial measures - she still ran the distance to the line only a tad slower despite having nothing to race with, her nearest rivals Cape Gentleman and Embittered, both of them smart, beaten off turning into the straight.
Timeform have awarded her a 142 timefigure, the same as her rating, which puts her well and truly in the Sporting Life Arkle picture in view of the hefty mares allowance she will receive.
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Discover Sporting Life Plus BenefitsPut The Kettle On won the Arkle in 2020 of course, and it wouldn’t surprise me if her trainer Henry de Bromhead also has that race earmarked for Magic Daze, who was nearly as impressive as Riviere d’Etel when winning at Cork on Sunday.
The opposition wasn’t quite as exacting, but Magic Daze barely put a foot wrong out in front at a strong pace (up to 10 seconds quicker at some points of the race than the following handicap won by the smart Epson De Houx) and her free-going nature surely means she’ll be kept to the minimum trip rather than be aimed for the newly inaugurated Mrs Paddy Power Mares Chase.
Third Time Lucki probably has the Arkle on his radar too having extended his winning sequence over fences to two at Cheltenham the previous day. He’s shorter in the betting than either of the two mares, but hasn’t achieved as much yet over fences, at least on the clock. His 124 Cheltenham timefigure on Saturday is some 22lb lower than the best he achieved over hurdles and he only had to jump round off a modest pace to account for three rivals who have been plying their trade in summer jumps racing.
Dan Skelton had a finger in most Cheltenham pies over the weekend and his promising novice My Drogo would have been another winner for him had he stood up against Gin On Lime on Friday, likely to have posted a timefigure well into the 140s.
For a two-runner race the gallop was very generous, Gin On Lime getting to three out from the third in the two-miler around three lengths faster than Editeur Du Gite managed in the well-run preceding handicap before slowing on the run to the second last. There had been little wrong with My Drogo’s jumping until then and his seasonal prospects aren’t diminished by this at all.
Away from Skeltonham, Sharjah and Vanillier were two Irish high-profile Irish winners at the weekend, but the races they won were tactical, modestly-run affairs and Vanillier in particular will have to up his game a little in the coming weeks to retain his place in the betting for the Festival Novices Chase, though in his defence he did get better with more racing last season and hasn’t yet run over three miles this term.
Three horses to keep on side
Back to more humdrum matters and last week threw up several run-of-the-mill performers who ought to be worth keeping on side in the coming weeks.
Wavecrest might only be a low-grade chaser but he’s only a six-year-old who was having just his third race over fences and experience has taught me that horses of his ilk, who set a stronger pace than better rivals on the same card and keep their head in front, as he did at Hereford, usually have more in hand than the result suggests.
Richmond Lake, a winner at Bangor, is a horse whose overall time (timefigure 121) and finishing sectionals (ran the fastest time from 3 out to the line despite having gone harder than the other winners in the earlier part of the race) point to him being an above-average northern novice.
Hunny Moon is a horse who the clock suggests could easily be underrated. In winning a novice handicap at Market Rasen she posted a time 7lb faster than the 138-rated Chilli Filli managed in the preceding listed mares’ chase and there was no fluke about it either with her race run at a faster pace at all stages. A 3lb rise for that win isn’t going to stop her from wining again.
National Hunt Flat race thoughts
Finally, I’ve had a few enquiries asking why I haven’t yet referenced National Hunt Flat races in this column. It’s not because I dislike them, only that I prefer to analyse performances with a complete set of inter-race sectionals to hand and camerawork often makes that pursuit impossible.
That said, I do keep an eye on how winners have fared on both overall time and sectional time against the hurdles run over the same distance on the same cards, and a handful of horses have grabbed my attention in the last few weeks.
Chief among them is American Mike, whose Down Royal win in October in a race Gordon Elliott targets and had won in 2020 with Sir Gerhard is the best piece of bumper form out there on the clock by a long way, but his easy win hasn’t gone unnoticed and he is rightly favourite for the 2022 Champion Bumper (The Big Doyen, while impressive visually was less persuasive on time).
Two others who have won this month and are more under the radar are Hullnback and Game On For Glory.
The former won a slowly-run 15-runner bumper at Chepstow in October, easing down after being held up right out the back. His closing sectional was almost three seconds faster than the 120-rated Hardkore managed in the near-identically run opener, suggesting his bumper rating could easily be as high as 110 on the Timeform scale if using that metric. He’ll defy a penalty in a similar race I’m sure, but looking at how stoutly bred he is Fergal O’Brien will almost certainly get him out over hurdles at two-and-a-half miles and more before long.
Game On For Glory finished runner-up in three bumpers last season but following a breathing operation went one better on her return at Warwick in a 16-runner affair. Her overall time compared very favourably with both hurdles over the same distance, with her closing sectional being even more encouraging.
Those figures suggest she ought to be able to run to something around 125 over hurdles, and given she already has plenty of experience, that would make her difficult to beat first time up, particularly against her own sex.