Check out Graeme North's timefigure analysis of the big weekend performances including his thoughts on Champ, Jonbon and American Mike.
Like or loathe the manner in which he chooses to campaign some of his higher-profile horses, Nicky Henderson is a hard man to keep out of the ring and on a low-key weekend on the other side of the Irish Sea, Henderson picked himself up off the canvas after the bruising news about his high-class hurdler Buzz and swiftly delivered a Jonbon-Champ one-two (if sadly not a celebratory Ali shuffle) at Ascot’s Howden Group-sponsored meeting to let the Irish know the Prestbury Cup is unlikely to won quite so easily this time round come Cheltenham in March.
I wrote in this column a few weeks back that Champ seemed the most overpriced horse in the ante-post market for the Gold Cup, with his price seemingly more a reflection of his being pulled up in the race in 2021 rather than his defeat of both Minella Indo and Allaho in the 2020 RSA or second place behind Sceau Royal over an unsuitable two miles in the Game Spirit.
After his Long Walk Hurdle win, however, there must be a considerable doubt now whether he will even go for the race. Champ ended up at Ascot after Henderson claimed he had run out of suitable races going left-handed over fences (that conveniently ignores the Savills Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas but Henderson no longer seems inclined to send anything to Ireland pre-Cheltenham) but orientation preferences are often overstated in my book and Champ looked every bit as good as ever in disposing of Thyme Hill in a race that Paisley Park won en-route to Stayers Hurdle success in 2019.
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Given the Long Walk wasn’t run at a flat-out gallop - Champ’s timefigure was an ordinary 125 - it’s not too surprising that a horse who had the pace to finish second in the Game Spirit should have far too much speed for Thyme Hill and, more particularly, the increasingly indolent Paisley Park. Last season’s Stayers Hurdle won by Flooring Porter looked a weakish renewal, for all the winner posted a decent 163 timefigure, and with no new kids on the block what is surprising is not that Champ heads the ante-post betting for the 2022 renewal but that he is available at as big as 9/2.
Under very different circumstances - much stronger pace and much softer ground than at Ascot - Paisley Park (still 40/1 in several places) could get a lot closer to Champ, but if you could be certain that Champ will stay over hurdles then that 9-2 looks far too big. His best form is better than Flooring Porter’s or any other staying hurdler around, and it’s plausible we still haven’t seen the best of him.
As he’ll be ten in a few days’ time and has been ‘minded’ for the last eighteen months, it wouldn’t be surprising to see connections take a safety-first option not least bearing in mind what happened in last year’s Gold Cup and go for the Stayers’.
So, what to make of Jonbon? Does ‘the price tag (£570,000) almost look justified’ as Richard Hoiles screamed in his in-race commentary? Well, he’s certainly been a better buy than the infamous Interconnected, still looking for his first win under Rules despite twice sold being sold for a record amount, including an eye-watering £620,000 in 2019, but has he done enough to warrant being as short as 9/4 for the Sky Bet Supreme at Cheltenham with neither Leopardstown’s Christmas meeting nor Dublin Racing Festival yet having taken place?
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Discover Sporting Life Plus BenefitsThere’s little doubting that those around him feel he’s a top-class prospect, and he looks too to have a swagger about him that a lot of good horses possess, but timefigures of 55 and 42 for his two hurdle wins in which none of his rivals wanted to go on and he was allowed to dictate show that it’s a bit too premature to be concluding too much on the clock.
There’s a good chance that a much more truly-run scenario will paint him in an even better light, of course, as for all both hurdle wins were easy on the eye neither his finishing split from two furlongs out at Newbury (0.72 seconds slower than Stage Star in the much more strongly-run affair over two and a half miles according to Course Track) nor Ascot (0.01 seconds slower than Party Business managed in the two mile five maiden hurdle according to Total Performance Data) were eye-popping impressive, even if he would have run faster at Ascot had he not been eased a couple of lengths close home.
To make a more informed judgement as to whether Jonbon can emulate his brother Douvan and go on and win the Supreme, we really need to see him again and we can take encouragement from how Henderson has campaigned his recent Kennel Gate winners that we will. Jonbon was Henderson’s fifth Kennel Gate winner since 2016 and three of those four other winners all ran again before Cheltenham, though none of them actually managed a place in the Supreme itself. L’Ami Serge fared best, finishing fourth to Douvan, while Claimintakinforgan finished fifth and Angels Breath seventh; his other winner Molotof ended up finishing in midfield in the Martin Pipe.
Still, whatever he has or hasn’t yet achieved, Jonbon is the type of exciting animal that gets fans talking and the sport this side of the Irish Sea needs more than ever right now. For me, though, on time at least, his stable-mate Constitution Hill still has the more compelling credentials for the Supreme.
The best timefigure (150) achieved over hurdles at the weekend came from Tritonic in the Grade 3 Betfair Exchange Hurdle, one of the most valuable handicaps of the season. Tritonic was landing his first win since the Adonis in February and looked a different model in a very strongly-run race that tested stamina more than some of recent runs.
The last winner of the Betfair Exchange Not So Sleepy went on to finish fifth in the Champion Hurdle but I doubt Tritonic is up to that level having failed to land a blow in the Triumph last year.
The top timefigure (147) over fences last week came from L’Homme Presse in the Graduation Chase on the same card, improving on the 143 he had posted when a very impressive winner at Exeter 15 days earlier. His trainer Ventia Williams has quietly assembled one of the strongest squads of chasers in the country: Fanion D’Estruval, Funambule Sivola and Cloudy Glen have all recorded timefigures of 150 or more since the start of November, while Aso, Brave Seasca and Royale Pagaille have all posted 140 or higher in the same period.
Keeping them all apart will be tricky, but while Royale Pagaille currently has bragging rights on account of the 159 he posted last season in the Peter Marsh, I suspect Funambule Sivola will prove the best of them. He shaped equally as well as the winner and race-fitter First Flow in the Peterborough Chase on his reappearance and it’s not without question that he will turn out to be every bit as good as his three-length second to Shishkin at Aintree last spring suggests he is.
Last week saw only a handful of meetings Ireland so good timefigures were always going to be few and far between. Last season’s County Hurdle ninth Ciel De Neige took the honours over fences with a 138 at Navan that saw him build on his win at Thurles and he looks promising enough if clearly not a top notcher.
Brandy Love topped the hurdles figures with a lowly 115 at Naas. She was a good bumper performer, finishing third behind the promising Grangee in a Grade 2 event at the Dublin Racing Festival, and made light of twenty-three rivals on her hurdling debut, cruising clear in a fashion that marks her out as a live candidate for the Mares Novice Hurdle.
Easily the most interesting horse to run on the card, however, was the current Champion Bumper favourite American Mike, who took the concluding Future Champions bumper in a very fast timefigure of 115 (Timeform’s bumper ratings are set at a much lower level than their hurdle ones) despite minimal encouragement from the saddle. Won by Samcro as well as two of the last three Champion Bumper winners, Sir Gerhard and Envoi Allen, in recent years, American Mike has two timefigures at least 8lb higher than any other bumper horse has achieved and sets a very lofty standard.