Timeform's Graeme North looks at the recent action with stopwatch in hand and he turns his attention to the National Hunt season after Saturday's racing from Ascot and Wetherby.
Wisdom makes no appeal for Derby
If I thought I was being clever almost two weeks ago escaping the UK for a ten-day spell in France given the abysmal weather and prospect of numerous abandonments, I was glad to get back home on Sunday evening from a property that had been ravaged by relentless rainfall and power cuts with both the drive and front garden under water.
That frustrating spell abroad meant I didn’t cover the Kameko Futurity so I’ll give it a brief mention now, brief because it delivered little on the clock (timefigure just 76) on ground that was as testing as it had been there by my estimation since the first two days of the turf Flat season and which was even deeper than it usually is at this fixture.
The supplemented winner Ancient Wisdom isn’t an easy watch with his exaggerated round pounding action (Derby quotes make no appeal) but he undoubtedly relished conditions and showed he’s versatile with regards to pace having relished a strongly-run Autumn Stakes just two weeks previously. Runner-up Devil’s Point ran a personal best, not surprising given the red-hot form of his trainer David Menusier, while third-placed God’s Window finished off strongly with the fastest final furlong.
Dancing Gemini, whose Flying Scotsman win over seven furlongs here came in a very fast time, travelled strongly and got to the front briefly but seemed to find the conditions too testing and remains a lively outsider for the 2000 Guineas granted quicker ground. That leaves City Of Troy top of the two-year-old timefigure pile on 117, followed by Ancient Wisdom and Dancing Gemini on 115, Ghostwriter on 110 and Rosallion and Henry Longfellow on 109, though City of Troy is further clear (125) if sectional upgrades are added on.
International thoughts
Staying with the Flat for now, the potential destruction to the fixture list because of the very wet weather led me last week to cast an eye over a jurisdiction I used to know well, Hong Kong, with the intention of widening the scope of this column when conditions dictate.
Things don’t seem to have changed much – the surface still looks to deteriorate quite quickly at Happy Valley while Graded handicaps still produce inflated ratings if traditional handicapping methods are employed – but there is far more detailed sectional information to hand than when I was handicapping races there for Timeform and Fairy King Prawn was carrying all before him, and I’ll post some thoughts ahead of the International meeting there in December when the time comes.
I haven’t had time to delve too deeply into the main International event on the weekend just gone, the Breeders Cup, but just looking at the turf races in particular the two main takeaways were the big advantage being tight to the inside had and just how archaic their race timing system remains.
The Juvenile Turf won by Big Evs, for example, had its official distance as five furlongs but that extends to five furlongs and nearly twenty seven yards once the run up that triggers the timing mechanism is added on and that extra ‘hidden’ distance (forty yards in this instance) was surely the difference between defeat and victory for Mawj in the Mile given she did a bit too much chasing the pacemakers coming home in a 97.9% finishing speed.
Master Of The Seas’ (finishing speed 102%) final furlong was clocked at 10.82 seconds, notable enough but not quite as fast as Inspiral’s 10.75 or as impressive as Auguste Rodin’s decisive inside-dive 11.16 penultimate furlong which was faster than even Nobals managed in the Sprint.
Was Galopin's Gold below standard?
Despite the current jumps season being a month past it’s ‘official’ Jumps Season Opening weekend at Chepstow and Ffos Las it still feels like it has yet to build up any sort of momentum with the likes of Nicky Henderson over here and Willie Mullins (who barely bothers with October these days it seems) in Ireland still to properly get going.
The Grade 2 bet365 Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby, one of the first tests of the year for those that have staying Grade 1 ambitions over fences, isn’t the sort of contest that ever attracts a large field – only twice this century has it attracted more than nine runners - but four runners as there were also in 2000 (see More Business) and 2018 (Definitely Red) is still a disappointing turnout all the same.
That said, the race attracted both Bravemansgame and Ahoy Senor as it had in 2022 only for the pair to be upstaged by the oddly similarly-named Irish raider Gentlemansgame on just his third start over fences. Not unexpectedly the enigmatic Ahoy Senor found his jumping letting him down again but the usually assured Bravemansgame was uncharacteristically sloppy at the final fence and that let the race fit Gentlemansgame gain the upper hand on the run-in.
It’s never wise to take early-season jumps form (for this is what this is) form too literally with bigger targets ahead but if I was in the Bravemansgame camp I’d be slightly underwhelmed he was beaten by one with such limited experience over fences.
A race that wasn’t as strongly run as it might have been – the winning timefigure was 149 compared to the 158 Bravemansgame posted last year which in itself is well below his best of 172 – ought not to have inconvenienced Bravemansgame too much given he started his own chasing career with a couple of ready wins short of three miles but if I’ve anything to take away from his performance, in conjunction with other bits of form since March, it’s that the 2023 Gold Cup form is starting to look shaky.
A Plus Tard pulled up, Galopin Des Champs and Bravemansgame got turned over at Punchestown by Ultima runner-up Fastorslow, Conflated has run two shockers since and all Protektorat’s other form suggests he’s not as good as wide-margin wins in small fields in the Many Clouds and the Betfair Chase make him look.
It would seem there’s room for a new kid on the block at the top of the staying division and while Gentlemansgame might yet be that horse the forthcoming seasonal debut of Gerri Colombe who was patently unsuited by the sharp nature of the Old Course is becoming all the more fascinating.
As for the error-prone Ahoy Senor, if he can’t jump Wetherby’s tiny fences (about which more in a few weeks, hopefully) the newly formed ‘Jumps Review Panel’ set up to censor Grand National entries will surely ensure his name is big and bold on their hitlist which would be a shame as it seems to me that if there is race over fences that’s made for him it’s that one.
Stayers' Hurdle division wide open
Regular readers will know that the other race I have long considered Ahoy Senor ideal for is the Stayers Hurdle and a couple of leading protagonists from that division were in action at Wetherby too in the West Yorkshire Hurdle in the shape of Dashel Drasher and Thyme Hill.
One of the reasons I was keen to see Ahoy Senor revert to what is undoubtedly an easier assignment over hurdles and backed him ante post to do so last year at 100/1 in the hope connections would change their minds is that the division is approaching care home status with four of the eleven-runner 2023 Stayers Hurdle field aged nine or older including the runner-up Dashel Dasher.
With dual Stayers Hurdle winner Flooring Porter seemingly set to stay over fences after his satisfactory chasing debut, the division is another ripe for an emerging talent but I can’t see Botox Has filling that void. He’s done well since being reinvented as a stayer but a plodding finish in a slow overall time (timefigure just 120) and no encouragement either from sectional upgrades suggests this form will look irrelevant come March.
Third place for Dashel Drasher (now a ten-year-old) and fourth place for the also ageing Thyme Hill were, perhaps significantly, much lesser efforts than both managed first time out last season and they could be . Jack de Bromhead Mares’ Hurdle winner You Wear It Well confirmed Cheltenham with fourth-placed Luccia in the Mares’ Hurdle, beating her by a similar margin. A 136 timefigure is an encouraging 9lb better than she has posted before and though she has a fair bit to find on form ratings with such as Love Envoi it’s interesting to note she doesn’t have the same amount to find on the clock.
Boothill the Ascot highlight
Over at Ascot, the standout performance on the clock (149 timefigure, 1lb higher than when he won the Hurst Park Handicap over the same course and distance a year previously) came from Boothill in the Byrne Group Handicap Chase.
That said, at the risk of repeating myself, I’d be wary of reading too much into this form. With all his best efforts on the clock coming at right-handed tracks opportunities for him at the minimum trip are limited and with several of his rivals seemingly blowing up at the end of a well-run race besides which runner-up First Flow is much better over further it could well be some of the beaten horses are more interesting going forward.
As mentioned earlier, Nicky Henderson has been slow to get going but he introduced an interesting recruit from the Irish point field in the shape of Jango Baie in the two-mile novice hurdle.
An 83 timefigure suggests this form is nothing to get carried away with, but using his final circuit time (the time taken from the final hurdle jumped on the penultimate circuit to the winning line on the final circuit) instead of his final time (the early pace over the first two hurdles was very sedate) and then comparing it with that posted by smart handicap hurdle winner Knickerbockerglory over the same trip elevates to a much more encouraging 122 and the fact the first two (the runner-up Tellherthename was also an Irish point recruit) came so far clear suggests both are useful. Tellherthename looked the more professional of the pair to me so Jango Baie, who was very keen early yet rallied after being headed, could well improve significantly.
Also taking place over the weekend was the usually informative Colin Parker Memorial at Carlisle which has been won by such as Many Clouds, Waiting Patiently and Lostintranslation in recent years. Beauport didn’t make the progress anticipated after taking this last season, however, and with Mahler Mission, who may well have won the National Hunt Chase in March had he stood up, outpaced late on over a trip well short of his optimum and third-place Bill Baxter meeting the first two on very unfavourable terms I’m not sure what the winner, last season’s Brown Advisory sixth, Thunder Rock achieved. His timefigure – 119 – suggests perhaps not much at all.
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