Watch And Learn: Graeme North timefigure analysis

I doubt there will ever be a more thrilling 2000 Guineas than the one Frankel dominated from start to finish in such astonishing fashion in 2011, though my own personal favourite since I started focussing on Flat racing remains the one El Gran Senor won in 1984 purely for the ease with which he dispatched one of the highest-quality fields ever assembled, proving far too strong for horses that went on to win the St James’s Palace Stakes, the Sussex Stakes, the July Cup, the Jacques le Marois and the Arc.

Besides Frankel, Shadeed’s win in 1985, Doyoun in 1988, Nashwan in 1989 and Zafonic in 1993 are all others I remember fondly for one reason or another but it’s fair to say the race hasn’t produced much in recent years to rile the nostalgia boys.

Bow Echo might be one to redress the balance; after all, he’s made a very good start, unbeaten in four starts while posting some of the best numbers in the race this century.

To put his winning effort in the race in context in that timeframe, his performance rating as it stands (131) is second only behind Frankel’s and is 6lb higher than the ‘average’ 2000 winner; the only winners to have run a faster time are Kameko in 2020 and Cockney Rebel in 2007 are both of them had the significant advantage of a following wind; only Frankel (136), Haafhd (2004, 129) and King’s Best (2000, 127) have posted a faster timefigure than the 126 awarded Bow Echo; and only Frankel (six lengths), Dawn Approach (five lengths) and King’s Best (three and a half lengths) have won by further than Bow Echo’s two and three-quarter lengths.

The subsequent performances of those horses suggest that Bow Echo ought to have little difficulty winning another Group One contest – other than King’s Best who went wrong in the Irish Derby on his only subsequent start, all the others won again with Frankel and Dawn Approach both following-up in the St James’s Palace Stakes, Cockney Rebel winning the Irish 2000 Guineas, Haafhd winning the Champion Stakes and Kameko the Joel Stakes.

One statistic where Bow Echo towers over all those winners, however, is the distance he put between himself and the third horse – nearly 11 lengths – which is much further than the seven-and-a-quarter lengths Van Der Neer was beaten by Dawn Approach, or the six-and-a half lengths Native Khan was beaten by Frankel.

Obviously there were some horses in there who probably didn’t deserve to be in the line-up - the average pre-race rating of the 14 runners was just 106, low historically and even 3lb lower than the cohorts Ruling Court and Gleneagles beat in 2025 and 2015 respectively – so the conclusion I’d be drawing from it all is that while the latest renewal won’t go down as a vintage one, Bow Echo is demonstrably a very good winner if not yet an outstanding one.

One interesting aspect of his performance, evident from the stride data available but probably widely unnoticed, is that in contrast to many well well-run races where stride decay – diminishing cadence or turnover – is evident late in the race, he increased his in the penultimate furlong from a consistent average of 2.36 strides per second before then to 2.43. Here’s to his next run in the St James’s Palace Stakes.

Other things that can be concluded from the result or interpreted from the data, stride or otherwise, is that Gstaad, who has clearly developed over the winter into a huge hulk of a horse, won’t want any further than a mile, while fourth-placed Into The Sky is an intriguing one in that he has a low stride turnover, suggesting he ought to have little trouble staying beyond a mile but has a style of racing that suggests otherwise and saw his cadence dropping off markedly on the climb to the line.

None of the representatives from the trials did much for the form of those races which may well be significant with this weekend’s French Classics in mind, while our assessment here a month or so ago concerning the prospects of King’s Trail proved spot on too, clearly not up to this level yet, while Needle Match who’d shaped well in the Greenham looked to me to be run back too quickly here.

Looking back at Bow Echo’s two-year-old form, it will be interesting to see how Humidity and Publish, runners-up respectively in the Royal Lodge and Ascendant Stakes but still to run this season, progress. Both got within a length of him then, and both hold big-race entries.

Love above-average 1000 heroine

Betfred 1000 Guineas winner True Love doesn’t come out quite so well on the numbers but has still achieved enough to be considered an above average winner.

Her 117 performance rating rates equal seventh of all 1000 winners this century and is 1lb above the average (though her rating could end up going up or down, as could Bow Echo’s, in response to subsequent events); her winning time of 95.14 seconds, 0.45 seconds quicker than Bow Echo managed on a day when there was a following wind and no watering had been applied to the track overnight, is the fourth fastest in that same timeframe, while her timefigure (115) has been bettered by only seven winners albeit mostly by not very much and her winning distance (a length-and-three-quarters) is equal eighth.

All that said, I fancy those numbers underestimate her potential if not her achievement. She gets a 3lb higher upgrade than the four that followed her home if her third-last furlong, where she breezed impressively into contention, is taken in isolation and her juvenile campaign rather suggested an uncertainty about her ideal trip with a bizarre decision taken after her Cheveley Park win to drop back in trip to five furlongs at Del Mar.

A comfortable reappearance win in soft ground in the seven-furlong Priory Belle Stakes at Leopardstown (formerly known as the 1000 Guineas Trial) from the widest stall ought to have allayed any stamina doubts and for all she’s had nine races now, still has the look of an unexposed one going forward.

Runner-up Evolutionist improved on her form in the Prix de la Grotte and is set to return to France for the Prix de Diane (though the runner-up in that race Narissa will be a much tougher nut to crack over an extra two and a half furlongs) while third-place Venetian Lace took her form to a new level despite Evolutionist reversing Fillies’ Mile form with her to the tune of a length-and-a-half.

That race was won by Precise, of course, and she was arguably the biggest disappointment here, though she reportedly had an interrupted preparation and still managed to run the second fastest third-last furlong after True Love according to the tracking data. Fifth-placed Abashiri also looks one to keep the right side, notably green here still on just her second start after six months off.

The Guineas meeting isn’t all about the two Classics, of course, and there were several other notable performances on the clock across the three days.

Best of the winning ones in those races carrying listed or Pattern status were those recorded by Jancis in the Dahlia Stakes, Night Raider in the Palace House and Ancient Egypt in the Newmarket Stakes.

Tried in a tongue tie for just the second time, Jancis left her previous form behind in the Dahlia, posting a 112 timefigure having been held up off a good pace which is 11lb better than her previous best. If there’s anything that might be held against her moving forward from this, it’s that her form didn’t improve from her reappearance last year and her final two efforts were her worst.

Night Raider is arguably a horse too who didn’t live up to his early promise last season but the removal of headgear and a gelding operation combined to provoke an improved performance, though it looked to me as if the others sat off him a bit too far and the couple of lengths he stole early on always looked more than enough.

Ancient Egypt ran a 107 in the Newmarket Stakes, kicking off a good weekend for the Charlie Johnston yard who look to have a bit more quality to go to war with this year, easily surpassing the 100 he recorded at Goodwood last year before finishing well held in the Royal Lodge behind Bow Echo. His was a strong-galloping effort that suggested a mile-and-a-half won’t be an issue.

Strike worth following

The Johnston yard also landed another of the Listed races at Newmarket, the Pretty Polly, with Jennifer Jane who like Ancient Egypt ended last season with a disappointing effort but showed that running to be wrong with a clear-cut success.

A sectional upgrade on top of a winning timefigure of 90 suggests her Timeform performance rating of 106 is about right and she was going away again at the end of the mile-and a quarter.

Arguably the most interesting of the Listed winners though was Saber Strike who scored for William Haggas in the King Charles II Stakes. A 92 timefigure isn’t exceptional for the level but he’d hacked up in a 15-runner minor event at Redcar last backend and a 19lb upgrade here across each of the last three furlongs gives him an overall timerating of 111.

Indeed, his was one of the fastest finishing efforts all week – only likely Wokingham favourite Double Rush and two-year-old Crownbreaker ran the penultimate furlong faster according to Course Track – and it’s interesting to note he’s bred on very similar lines to Bow Echo being by the same sire Night of Thunder out of a mare who is also by another son of Green Desert.

Arc winner Daryz has already been seen in winning action this season and the horse he beat at Longchamp, Minnie Hauk, made an encouraging return at the Curragh on Monday.

There was nothing spectacular about the time, easily on top at the end of a race in which she needed only to post an 85 to score readily, but it suggests her stable are just moving up a gear ahead of this week’s important Derby trials.

Last year’s Futurity winner Hawk Mountain made a satisfactory return at Chantilly the same afternoon, winning the Prix de Guiche readily in first-time cheekpieces by a length-and-a-quarter, but the tracking data showed that runner-up Lord Clover deserves plenty of credit for running the last 600m much faster, not least given he came from behind to beat into third place Campacite who’d finished second behind Puerto Rico in last season’s Criterium International

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