Timeform rating analysis | Christmas review

Ferny Hollow (165P from 148P)

It's easy to understand why Ferny Hollow is a top price of 2/1 for the Sporting Life Arkle as he put up a top-class performance when successfully conceding 13 lb to exciting four-year-old Riviere d'Etel at Leopardstown on Boxing Day.

Riviere d'Etel had won her three previous starts over fences without her rivals being able to lay a glove on her, scoring by a cumulative margin of 43 lengths, but she wasn't even able to get to the front at Leopardstown as Ferny Hollow set a strong pace and kept up the gallop to score by a length and a half in a fast time.

There's no reason why Riviere d'Etel should reverse the form at Cheltenham, by which time she will be in receipt of just a 7 lb sex allowance, and the likelihood is that Ferny Hollow won't even need to run up to his Leopardstown form to win the Sporting Life Arkle.

Edwardstone (remains on 159) enhanced his own reputation when following up his win in the Henry VIII Novices' Chase with another wide-margin victory in the Wayward Lad Novices' Chase and he looks the main danger, but much more will be required to beat an on-song Ferny Hollow, who is unbeaten over obstacles, sets a daunting standard and still has more to offer.

Klassical Dream (164 from 162)

Klassical Dream poached a few cheap lengths in an unsatisfactory start to Leopardstown's Christmas Hurdle, but it's still worth taking a positive view of a performance that marks him out as the one to beat in the staying hurdle division.

Klassical Dream had burst onto the scene in impressive style when coasting to a nine-length victory in the Champion Stayers Hurdle at the Punchestown Festival, though he didn't have to cope with an on-song Flooring Porter on that occasion as the Cheltenham winner was pulled up after boiling over beforehand. Flooring Porter gave a much better account of himself at Leopardstown, though, making Klassical Dream dig deep as the front pair pulled 21 lengths clear of the third.

Flooring Porter had been inconvenienced at the start, giving away more than the two lengths he was beaten by, but Klassical Dream always looked to have matters under control and, in Timeform's view, was marginally the better horse and a deserved winner. He edged his Timeform rating up to 164 and now heads the standings in the staying hurdle division by 2 lb from Flooring Porter, with Long Walk winner Champ 2 lb back on 160.

Galopin des Champs (157p)

Galopin des Champs progressed rapidly towards the end of last season, winning the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival before following up in Grade 1 company at Punchestown, and he looks sure to also take high rank over fences based on his hugely impressive chasing debut at Leopardstown last week.

Galopin des Champs put in an electric round of jumping on his way to a scintillating 22-length success over Ain't That A Shame, a useful prospect in his own right who was brushed aside with ease. Only Ferny Hollow (165p) and Edwardstone (159) are rated higher than Galopin des Champs among this season's novices, but a figure of 157 by no means represents the limit of his potential. He is a top-class prospect.

Mount Ida (155 from 151)

A Timeform performance rating of 154 was enough for Colreevy to edge out Elimay in the inaugural running of the Mares' Chase at the Cheltenham Festival last season so Mount Ida looks a strong contender for this year's event after earning a career-best Timeform rating of 155 at Fairyhouse on New Year's Day.

Elimay, a narrow runner-up to Colreevy in last season's Mares' Chase, wasn't quite at her best at Fairyhouse but Mount Ida still did well to give her 3 lb and a half-length beating in a truly-run affair.

Concertista (137p) is understandably favourite for the Mares' Chase based on her smart hurdles form and unbeaten start over fences, but Mount Ida - who won the Kim Muir Handicap Chase at last season's Festival, incidentally - is likely to set a fair standard to aim at.

Stage Star (145p from 137P)

Stage Star was one of the leading British-based bumper performers last season and he has quickly established himself as one of the most promising novice hurdlers this term. Stage Star was presented with a couple of straightforward opportunities on his first two starts over hurdles, landing the odds with ease on both occasions, but he faced a stiffer task at Newbury last week when fast-tracked to Grade 1 company in the Challow.

Stage Star, sent off the 5/4 favourite to emulate stablemate Bravemansgame's success 12 months ago, took the step up in class in his stride, quickly assuming control after leading at the second-last. That six-and-a-half-length success earned him a rating of 145p that has been bettered by only Jonbon (149P) among the novice hurdlers this season.

Iceo (140p from 115p)

The Triumph Hurdle betting may be headed by Fil Dor (137p), who made it three from three for Gordon Elliott when landing a Grade 2 at Leopardstown on Boxing Day, but Timeform's juvenile pecking order is headed by a couple trained in Britain in the shape of Porticello and Iceo (both 140p).

Porticello raised his game to win the Grade 1 Finale Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow, proving well suited by the test of stamina the soft ground provided, but it is arguably more impressive that Iceo earned the same rating in a juvenile hurdle at Kempton on his first start for Paul Nicholls.

Iceo had won on his only previous outing in France and he looked a smart sort when bolting up by 17 lengths on his British debut, leaving some fairly useful recruits from the Flat trailing in his wake. Nicholls seemed lukewarm about a Triumph Hurdle bid, viewing the winner as a chaser of the future, but Iceo would be well worth his place at Cheltenham.

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