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Timeform Horse racing tips for Ayr on Saturday


Timeform highlight a ratings choice, a big improver and a Flag of note at Ayr on Saturday.

The Big Improver

Monbeg Genius - 15:35 Ayr

3
Monbeg Geniust39
Age: 7|  Weight: 11-5| J: Jonjo O'Neill Jr.| T: J & A O'Neill| OR:  145| BF
4/1

Monbeg Genius has progressed rapidly over fences this season, improving his Timeform rating with each start.

He completed the hat-trick at Chepstow in February and then produced an even better effort in defeat when third in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, more than holding his own in the cut-and-thrust environment of a top-end handicap.

Monbeg Genius impressed with how he travelled through that contest and still had every chance at the last but was unable to go with Corach Rambler, who boosted the form by comfortably landing the Grand National, and Fastorslow, who was very unexposed over fences and had finished runner-up in the Coral Cup the previous season. Monbeg Genius still remains open to improvement after only five start over fences.

Timeform's Flat Horses To Follow 2023 - out now!

The Ratings Choice

Balco Coastal - 15:00 Ayr

2
Balco Coastal37
Age: 7|  Weight: 11-2| J: N de Boinville| T: N J Henderson| OR:  150| D
2/1

Balco Coastal was disappointing when failing to beat a rival in the Turners Novices' Chase at the Cheltenham Festival last month but he sets a clear standard based on the very smart form he had shown when runner-up to Gerri Colombe in the Scilly Isles Novices' Chase at Sandown.

Balco Coastal had created a good impression when winning a novice handicap in style at Kempton and he improved on that form in Grade 1 company at Sandown, making a talented rival work hard.

Gerri Colombe has since franked that form by going close in the Brown Advisory at the Cheltenham Festival and easily winning the Mildmay at Aintree, so Balco Coastal stands out on that Sandown effort, heading Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings by 4 lb.

The Timeform Flag

Colonel Mustard - 14:25 Ayr

Horse In Focus, Top-Rated

2
Colonel Mustard49
Age: 8|  Weight: 11-8| J: Kieren Buckley(3)| T: L Fowler| OR:  146| D
9/2

Colonel Mustard shaped with plenty of encouragement on his return to hurdling at Kelso last month, going like the best horse at the weights in the valuable Morebattle Hurdle only to be picked off late in the day by one that came from much further back in a strongly-run race.

Colonel Mustard's only success over hurdles remains a maiden at Galway last season, but he has produced some smart efforts in defeat, including when third in the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival last year.

His strong-travelling style marks him out as an ideal sort for top-end handicaps run at a strong gallop - which this one is forecast to be - and he looks like a major player off a mark only 3 lb higher than when shaping so well in the Morebattle.


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