Timeform's Tony McFadden picks out four from the home team who are worth siding with at the 2021 Cheltenham Festival.
The Prestbury Cup – the competition between the British and the Irish – can occasionally provide an interesting sideline to the main action, as was the case in 2019 when the spoils were shared.
It was a more one-sided affair last year, however, as the Irish had 17 winners compared to Britain's 10, and it would be no surprise were the raiders to prove even more dominant this time given the remarkable array of talent trained by Willie Mullins, Henry de Bromhead and Denise Foster, who has taken over the licence at Cullentra House following Gordon Elliott's ban.
It could be slim pickings for the British trainers this year, but Timeform's Tony McFadden has highlighted four from the home team who are worth siding with.
Shishkin (Sporting Life Arkle)
Shishkin has been a strong favourite for the Sporting Life Arkle since he overcame trouble in running to win the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at last year's meeting, but he is by no means facing the penalty kick that many will have envisaged.
That is no reflection on how well Shishkin has taken to fences – he has impressed with his technique – but he is part of an extraordinary crop of novice chasers and will take on at least one high-class rival at the Festival, meaning he faces a stiffer task than Nicky Henderson's recent Arkle winners Sprinter Sacre, Simonsig and Altior.
Shishkin and the Willie Mullins-trained Energumene have achieved a similar Timeform rating over fences and are both hugely exciting prospects with the potential to rate higher still.
It's fair to point out that Energumene has more substance to his form having bolted up in the Grade 1 Irish Arkle last time, but Shishkin’s exploits on the clock – in small fields against a lesser calibre of rival – provide evidence that he is already a top-class chaser.
It's difficult to be dogmatic about which is the more talented, but there are a couple of factors that tilt the balance in Shishkin's favour.
Energumene has dominated on all three starts over fences, running his rivals ragged, but he may need to show a degree of tactical versatility in the Arkle due to the presence of the headstrong Allmankind, who only has one style of racing. Will Energumene prove as effective ridden with restraint?
The going at Cheltenham is likely to be faster than the conditions under which Shishkin and Energumene have shown their best form.
It's unlikely to be an issue for Shishkin, whose chief asset is his speed, but Energumene is a relentless galloper and may be at his most effective with ease in the ground.
Houx Gris (Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle)
There are a multitude of methods for finding winners, but one tactic that has been successful in the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle has been siding with a Paul Nicholls-trained recruit from France.
Sanctuaire (2010), Qualando (2015) and Diego du Charmil (2016) all had that profile and Houx Gris is from the same mould. He was purchased for €200,000 after winning at Auteuil in October and shaped with obvious promise on his debut for Nicholls when thrown in the deep end in the Grade 1 Finale Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow.
Houx Gris was eventually beaten by more than 20 lengths in third, but the bare result doesn't tell the whole tale as he was still right in contention, albeit not travelling as well as the first two, until belting the second-last.
An opening mark of 128 is fair based on what he achieved in France – he heads Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings – and the way he moved through the majority of the race at Chepstow suggests he could rate much higher.
There is obvious potential for improvement after only one start for Nicholls and, given his attractive profile, it's no surprise he is disputing favouritism.
Demachine (Kim Muir Handicap Chase)
The Irish are often at an advantage in the Kim Muir given the quality of amateur riders they can call upon, most notably Jamie Codd and Derek O'Connor, but it is more of a level playing field this year as only professionals are riding at the meeting due to Covid-19 protocols.
The Irish challenge looks weaker than usual, certainly numerically at least, and one of the home team who makes appeal at the prices is Demachine, a 20/1 shot.
Demachine took time to get the hang of things over hurdles and failed to win in that sphere, but that won't have concerned connections as his pedigree and physique suggested he was always going to come into his own over fences.
He duly produced a much improved effort on his chasing debut at Uttoxeter, scoring by four and a half lengths, and he took another step forward to defy a 10 lb higher mark at Ascot, impressing with how smoothly he travelled and fluently he jumped.
He has been beaten the last twice but ran well on both occasions, most notably when stepping out of handicap company into the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices' Chase at Ascot last time.
A four-length second to the strong-staying Remastered makes an entry against Monkfish in the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase look fanciful, but, given the upward curve he is following, a mark of 142 should not prevent him going well in the Kim Muir.
Native River (Cheltenham Gold Cup)
Al Boum Photo has rock-solid claims in his bid to become just the second horse since Arkle to win three Cheltenham Gold Cups, and, like Best Mate – the only horse to complete the feat in the interim – he has benefited from having his entire campaign geared around the Cheltenham Festival.
He again arrives on the back of a smooth preparation and it would be difficult to argue that he's not the most likely winner, but the body of evidence suggests he's a top-class chaser without being an outstanding one miles clear of the pack.
Last year's Gold Cup provided an example of that as Al Boum Photo scrambled home by just half a length from Santini, showing that he has little margin for error. In fact, on Timeform ratings, Al Boum Photo is only 2lb clear of 2018 Gold Cup winner Native River, who is a general 14/1 shot.
The 11-year-old Native River is bidding for his own slice of history as no horse older than 10 has won the race since 1969, but not many veterans will have arrived at Cheltenham on the back of such an authoritative victory.
Native River slammed Bristol de Mai by nine and a half lengths in the rescheduled Cotswold Chase at Sandown last month, proving he remains as enthusiastic and talented as ever.
His excellent jumping, teak-tough attitude and bottomless stamina reserves means that he is at his most effective when the mud is flying – as he showed in 2018 – and he is unlikely to get such favourable conditions this year, but double-figure quotes still look to underestimate his chance.
Analysis of three other big contenders
It's difficult to get a handle on what exactly Metier has achieved in three starts over hurdles as there hasn't been much depth to the races he's been winning, including the Grade 1 Tolworth last time. However, a good time at Sandown means there is some substance to go along with the style, and, while Appreciate It will prove a tougher nut to crack, Metier figures prominently on the ratings for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle.
The ratings for the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle are headed by Bravemansgame, who drew favourable comparisons with Denman from Paul Nicholls after winning the Challow Hurdle at Newbury. Nicholls has very few runners in the novice hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival nowadays, often preferring to take the patient approach with the embryonic chasers he is predominantly sent, so it says plenty about the esteem in which Bravemansgame is held that the Ballymore has been a long-term target. It will be a fascinating clash against the promising Irish novices Bob Olinger and Gaillard du Mesnil, who have achieved a similar level of form.
The Triumph Hurdle looked at the mercy of the Irish for much of the season, but the picture has changed in recent weeks due to the emergence of Tritonic. Few horses of his ability go juvenile hurdling – he finished runner-up in the Golden Gates Handicap at Royal Ascot – and he has made a big splash in a short space of time. His impressive success in the Adonis Juvenile Hurdle sent him rocketing to the head of the betting and Timeform ratings, though there's not much to split him and leading Irish aces Zanahiyr and Quilixios.