David Ord looks at the horses to have hit a big Timeform rating on debut in recent years - and what happened to them subsequently.
There was understandably plenty of excitement surrounding Epictetus’ winning debut at the Newmarket July Meeting (replay below).
A well-bred son of Kingman, he was sent off an 11/1 chance for the Weatherbys British EBF Maiden Stakes. He travelled smoothly through the contest and was pushed out by Martin Harley to beat Leadman by a length-and-a-quarter.
It earned a Timeform performance rating of 100+, a big number, and one few reach on their racecourse debuts. But do those who fly high first time go on as expected?
Well, here we look at horses with the highest Timeform master rating going into their second starts (it takes into account back-handicapping that may have occurred) in recent years, and see what became of the early achievers.
And while there's one subsequent Group One winner among them, you'll notice for plenty it didn't get much better than the first day at school.
Unlimited Replays
of all UK and Irish races with our Race Replays
Discover Sporting Life Plus Benefits
Calyx 110 – Ascot 19th June 2018
Yep, let's start with a bang and a horse who ran to 104+ on debut at Newmarket a month prior to a very impressive win in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot. He then met with a setback and while making a winning return in the Pavilion Stakes, a four-length defeat of No Nonsese earning a 116+ figure, a career high, he only ran once more.
He headed to Haydock for the Sandy Lane and was no match for Hello Youmzain at 2/13 and that was that. Two months later he’d been sold to join the Coolmore ranks and racing fans were left with a sense of what might have been.
Visinari 110 Newmarket 11th July 2019
Ah, Visinari. The horse that divided opinion, whose sectional times and stride length on debut suggested he was heading to the top.
We all know he didn’t get there – in fact he never won again in five subsequent UK starts but 104+ at headquarters was matched next time when third in the July Stakes a mere Spanish stone throw away. He hit 106 when fourth of five behind Molatham and Wichita at Doncaster in the autumn but was nearly as good on the first day as he was ever to be.
Ten Sovereigns Curragh 1st September 2018
He wasn’t particularly well-fancied at 5/1 but hit a mighty 113+ when winning on debut at the Curragh and was subsequently given a rating of 116+ when following up here in a Group Three.
It was at Newmarket – in the Middle Park at two and July Cup at three - that he soared the highest, his performance in the latter when beating Advertise by two-and-three-quarter lengths a clear career highlight.
The son of No Nay Never stands as proof that those who go high on day one can still go significantly higher later on.
Thunder Moon 106 Curragh 13th September 2020
He was one of the leading two-year-olds of 2020 and Thunder Moon wasn’t one for hiding his light under a bushel.
He ran to 100+ when winning on debut at the Curragh in August and just over a month later hit 113+ and the Group One jackpot when landing the National Stakes on only his second start.
That was it as far as career victories go, a third place when favourite in the Dewhurst followed by a Group One-laden three-year-old campaign, the highlight of which was chasing home Law Of Indices in the Prix Jean Prat.
His sights were lowered at four but he was retired after failing to shine in four starts.
Method 106 Newbury 18th July 2020
Another from the class of 2020 who, having scored on debut at Doncaster, confirmed that rich promise with an impressive win in the Rose Bowl Stakes at Newbury. But that Listed success was as good as it got for Martyn Meade’s charge.
He’s still racing but hasn’t got his head in front since – although his recent third in the Coral Charge did at least match his best Timeform performance rating of 110.
Kinross Newcastle 1st November 2019
Remember when the Group One Vertem Futurity Stakes was run at Newcastle? You will if you backed Kinross.
He was sent off a well-backed 13/8 favourite off the back of a stunning Newmarket debut success a month earlier (106+) but could finish only fifth behind subsequent 2000 Guineas winner Kameko after meeting with a bit of trouble in running.
He’s had days in the sun since for his excellent trainer, notably when winning last year’s Lennox Stakes at Goodwood, and now has a Timeform master rating of 118.
Jash 105 Salisbury 14th September 2018
A son of Kodiac who was bred to be quick, he lived up to the billing when running away with a maiden on the July Course on debut.
He followed up at Salisbury next time, where he didn’t need to improve, but did step forward significantly when shaking up Ten Sovereigns in the Middle Park next time.
117 was as high as he flew. He flopped in the Commonwealth Cup the next spring and wasn’t the same horse on his return from a subsequent 408-day break and wind surgery.
He was last seen finishing down the field in a Group three at Meydan in March.
Tough Talk 105 Curragh 21st May 2022
New on the list having recorded a 103+ performance figure when winning at the Curragh in April. The son of Kingman looked a terrific prospect there but was 12 lbs below that level when second to Blackbeard at the same track the following month.
He’s not been seen since but does hold an entry in the Group One National Stakes. A revival isn’t ruled out.
Honourable mentions...
Having touched on Tough Talk we must include DRAMATISED who had a master rating of 104 after her debut win at Newmarket and is up to 110p after following up in the Queen Mary. She can go higher too.
But probably the biggest surprise on the list is DEE EX BEE.
You don’t associate future middle-distance/staying stars as being the sort to burn bright early but he was rated 104 after a sweeping debut win at the Qatar Goodwood Festival.
He’d raised that to 123 by the time he was transferred to the UAE, a number earned through chasing home Masar in the Cazoo Derby and landing the 2019 Henry II Stakes.