Graeme North rounds up all the latest action from a timefigure perspective with the Challow winner and one or two Irish-trained runners on his radar for Cheltenham.
Time to Beton Mullins hopeful
There was a mammoth amount of National Hunt racing over the Christmas/New Year period and having only scraped the surface with reviews of Kempton and Leopardstown last week, I’ll turn my attention this time to some of the significant events elsewhere over the holiday period.
If one performance above all others seemed to dip under the radar more than I might have imagined it was that put up by En Beton in a beginners chase at Punchestown on New Year’s Eve.
A French import who was last seen winning a maiden hurdle at Tramore in April, En Beton was sent off at 10/1 in the face of strong support for his stable-companion Egality Mans (who also making his chasing debut) but took to fences like an old hand, having everything other than his less fluent stable-companion well beaten off a long way out and left to cruise home twenty lengths and more clear after Egality Mans came down two out.
En Beton might have had ‘things his own way out in front’ but a comparison with the following handicap over the same trip won by the Timeform 133-rated Lord Lariat shows that he did come close to doing things the hard way, running the distance to the third last seven seconds faster than Lord Lariat before the gap closed by a couple of seconds late after En Beton had been left clear.
En Beton has been credited with a 142 timefigure for that performance, which allied to a 4lb upgrade puts him on 146; although a strict time comparison with Lord Lariatwould put him well into the mid-150s. That sort of level would be good enough to win the National Hunt Chase in most years, though its recent reduction in distance is likely to result in a better calibre of horse targeting it these days. His trainer Willie Mullins (who sent out an extraordinary 23 winners between Boxing Day and the 2nd January) has suggested a couple of times since that might be the race for him, and the generally available 14s looks to me fair value right now.
On the same Punchestown card, Darver Star got his career something like back on track returned to hurdles and with blinkers back on in a commendable 149 timefigure, but now a ten-year-old and those behind him something of a hotchpotch mixture of struggling chasers or out-of-form sorts his prospects of advancing his achievements over the smaller obstacles aren’t immediately obvious for all good two-mile hurdlers remain are thin on the ground.
With the Triumph in mind, that remark applies equally to four-year-olds as well, but the pair that dominated the opening maiden hurdle, Pied Piper and Vauban, look decent prospects. Useful on the Flat for John and Thady Gosden and Philippe Decouz respectively, Pied Piper upset the odds laid on the runner-up thanks to some superior hurdling over a trip that is probably also suited him better. Timefigures of 106 and 105 respectively don’t set the pulse racing, but a closing race sectional from two out over two and a half seconds faster than any of the other hurdles races on the card puts a different spin on the merit of pulling fifteen lengths clear might be worth, and 26lb or so upgrades for the both the first two suggest they are already on the fringe of making an impact in the Triumph.
McShee shines at Limerick
Limerick’s four-day Christmas meeting typically started on heavy ground and finished on borderline unraceable ground after passing a final-day inspection.
Highlight of their Boxing Day card was the G1 Boylesports Faugheen Novices Chase, a race the former Champion Hurdler (who was unbeaten at Limerick) had won in 2019 and which is usually goes to either Willie Mullins or Gordon Elliott but this time around went to Paddy Corkery whose stable-star Master McShee edged out the Elliott-trained Farouk D’Alene in a 153 timefigure (plus 3lb upgrade) after the latter had looked in control in the straight.
Runner-up to Appreciate It on his hurdles debut, Master McShee had shown promise behind Bob Olinger on his chasing debut last month and will add some spice to the spring Festivals if he holds his form for longer than he has in previous seasons.
Eric Bloodaxe was the highest-profile winner on the second day, posting a 122 timefigure (10lb below his form rating) in the G2 Novice hurdle over a furlong short of three miles. A somewhat-distant second to Ginto (more of whom later) in his previous start in a G2 novice at Naas, Eric Bloodaxe seemed to appreciate the increased emphasis on stamina here, and though he ended up winning by further than looked likely in what was a slow-motion finish, the suspicion is that he had handicappers and not graded horses behind him.
Concertista took the graded honours on the third day with a comfortable win in the G2 Dawn Run. The clear pick on form, she was always travelling well in a steadily-run race (timefigure 86, well short of the 135 she has posted before) but quite whether this ready win deserved her shortening up quite so much for the Mrs Paddy Power Mares at Cheltenham I very much doubt for all her Festival record bears close inspection.
Teahupo got back up to beat Quixilios having looked beaten after the latter had quickened to the front in the G2 Limerick Hurdle on the final day, but the race was run at a crawl (fair bit slower to 3 out for the same section than the modest handicap won by Split The Bucket later in the card) and the form looks very questionable.
Two horses I took from the meeting in view of the fast closing sectionals (mindful they were in the opening races on their respective days) were Champion Green, a useful winner on the Flat but still green over hurdles and looking very much a Fred Winter type for now, and Glens Of Antrim, sixth in the Dawn Run at the Festival last year behind Telmesomethinggirl and the sort that might go well this time around in something like the Coral Cup.
Al Boum Photo won the Savills New Year’s Day Chase at Tramore (distance quietly amended to two and three-quarter miles this year) for the fourth year running, but with all four runners trained by Willie Mullins and the former Gold Cup winner allowed to set a farcically slow pace given the ability of the runners – the vastly-inferior handicapper Young Fitzy ran the distance from the first fence in his race to the winning line over three seconds faster than Al Boum Photo - the race told us little other than Al Boum Photo is still around in one piece.
Mount-ing a challenge for Cheltenham
The same afternoon at Fairyhouse, Mount Ida edged out Elimay in a well-contested G3 Mares Chase in a 147 timefigure (upgraded to 149 after sectionals are included). Former Champion Chaser Put The Kettle On (last of five) might be struggling for form right now but Elimay is about as reliable as they come at this level as well as being a winner in a higher grade and this looks strong form with the March’s 2021 Limerick Dawn Run winner Scarlett And Dove back in third.
Indeed, this looks better form than Concertista’s two wins over fences so far, and the last year’s Kim Muir ought not to be twice Concertista’s price for the Mrs Paddy Power.
Blue Lord won the two-mile novice case in a 144 timefigure but the race wasn’t the jumping test it was supposed to be with low sun intervening and he probably still has a bit more to find to serve it up to his stable-mate Ferny Hollow.
Last, but not least, in the Irish wrap-up is Ginto who won the feature event of Naas’ winter season, the G1 Lawlor’s Of Naas Novice Hurdle, by over four lengths from Grand Jury in a 141 timefigure that came with a minimal 1lb upgrade. That’s a career-best on the clock and adds a degree of versatility to his progressive profile, having won steadily-run races previously. All his wins over hurdles have been gained over two and a half miles, which might make the Ballymore the obvious Cheltenham target ( the same route taken by the last two Lawlor’s winners Bob Olinger and Envoi Allen) but Ginto has always looked a three-miler in the making and his trainer Gordon Elliott seemed minded in a post-race interview to lean towards the Albert Bartlett.
Stage is the Star in the UK
So far as action on the domestic front was concerned, the horse that impressed me most over the New Year period was Stage Star who won the Challow Hurdle at Newbury in a timefigure of 136, better than the 134 he managed on his previous start at Newbury when he ran the distance from the second last to the winning line in a near-identical time to Jonbon despite racing over half a mile further.
Stage Star’s finishing sectional from two out in the Challow was also the best on the card, and he looks a serious contender for the Ballymore. The Irish-trained contingent might have wiped the floor with the home defence in last year’s novice hurdles at Cheltenham, but the playing field in that division looks much leveller this time around and together with Constitution Hill, who reportedly runs this weekend at Sandown, my interpretation of the clock has Stage Star being the best of the home-trained chances.
Stage Star’s stablemate Bravemansgame won the Challow last year before finishing third in the Ballymore, but sectionals suggest Stage Star is a better horse and he’s still to be really let loose.
Nicholls has a strong hand with his younger hurdlers and Iceo put himself forward as a legitimate Triumph candidate when winning the three-year-old hurdle at Kempton in a 140 timefigure, though whether he will improve much on that remains to be seen given he was seen to much better advantage in that race than some of those horses held up a long way back who followed him home.
It’s a long time since the North had a legitimate contender for the Champion Hurdle but they have this year in the shape of Tommy’s Oscar who defied an official mark of 150 (albeit under a 7lb claimer) at Musselburgh in a 150 timefigure. Connections are reportedly thinking of the Champion Hurdle Trial at Haydock next month to see if he’s up to the task, but it’s a measure of how far he has progressed already – with seemingly no end in sight to that progress – that only Not So Sleepy and Sceau Royal in the Fighting Fifth and Adagio in the Greatwood among home-trained possible have registered faster timefigures over the Champion Hurdle trip this year.
Finally, Surrey Quest might not be up to Champion Hurdle standard but I’ll be very surprised if a decent two-and-a-half handicap hurdle doesn’t come his way in the next couple of months. His opening mark of 135 might seem a stiff one based on the horses he beat at Doncaster last week, but a closing sectional from two out much faster than either of the two-mile hurdles either side at the end of a well-run race (timefigure 129) in which he looked to have only just joined in suggests to me he wouldn’t be out of place in much better company than that he is likely to take on next time out.