Group One-winning trainer Johnny Murtagh

Sky Bet Ebor Handicap tips: Timeform Pace Map analysis

By Sporting Life

Horse Racing

Sat August 21, 2021 · 4y ago

We take a look at the Timeform Pace Map predictor for the 2021 Sky Bet Ebor Stakes at York.

Where can pace projections be found?

Timeform’s ‘Pace Map’ (available under the Race Pass ‘Hints’ tab to signed-in customers) uses past performances to assign an Early Pace Figure (EPF) to each runner (EPF 1-EPF 5) in the field, while using a colour scale to represent the likelihood of the horse recording that particular EPF, white indicating the lowest probability through to a deep red indicating the highest.

Why is pace important?

In very simple terms, the pace of any given race can have a significant baring on how that event unfolds. A horse allowed an easy time of things at the front can ultimately appear to outperform their raw ability, while conversely if the early tempo is too hot - whether that’s a single runner going off really quickly or several rivals getting into a battle for the lead – then those ridden with more patience towards the rear of the field may be at an advantage. In theory, if all horses in a given race possess the same level of ability, the one who races most efficiently should emerge on top.

What does the Pace Map indicate for this year’s Ebor?

The Timeform pace map for the 2021 Sky Bet Ebor

Likely leaders

There is likely to be a disputed lead and strong gallop from the outset in this year’s Ebor, with several horses who typically like to go forward in their races featuring in the line-up.

They include MT LEINSTER, MAX VEGA and MAKAWEE, all of whom can be expected to race in front rank. FUJAIRA PRINCE, ROBERTO ESCOBARR, QUICKTHORN, HUMANITARIAN, PABLO ESCOBARR and ALOUNAK are others who are unlikely to be too far away.

It’s worth pointing out that several of those mentioned above have wide draws to contend with, including Pablo Escobarr (22), Mt Leinster (21) and Fujaira Prince (19).

That will provide their riders with the difficult challenge of trying to assume a prominent position without using up too much energy in the early stages.

Mid-div

Finding a position in mid-division has proved a productive strategy in recent editions of the Ebor. For context, four of the last six winners recorded an EPF of 3, with the only exceptions being Nakeeta (EPF of 4 in 2017) and Fujaira Prince (EPF of 2 in 2020).

Amongst those likely to be settled in the second tier in this year’s renewal include the Johnny Murtagh-trained pair of SONNYBOYLISTON and MIRANN, as well as GLOBAL STORM, Godolphin’s only runner after ante-post favourite Live Your Dream missed the cut.

Hold-up horses

It can prove difficult to make up ground from off the pace in the Ebor, with space often at a premium despite the long straight. A couple of recent winners have shown that it can be done, though, with Moyenne Corniche (2011) and Nakeeta (2017) both recording EPFs of 4 when successful in the last 10 years.

Market leaders such as HAMISH and ILARAAB, both trained by William Haggas, are likely to be racing towards the rear of the field, while the extreme hold-up horses include top-weight EUCHEN GLEN, BLUE CUP and TRIBAL CRAFT. Look out for them trying to deliver a late run.

Who will benefit in the most likely scenario?

Unsurprisingly, a strong gallop is on the cards for what is always one of the most fiercely competitive handicaps of the entire Flat season in Britain.

Fujaira Prince won from a prominent position 12 months ago, but the gallop was nowhere near as strong as might have been expected on that occasion and it will be a surprise if we encounter a similar set of circumstances this time.

As a result, it could pay to focus on those likely to be ridden in mid-division or perhaps even further back. One such horse who will be of interest is the Irish raider MIRANN, a strong-travelling sort who is usually ridden in the second half of the field.

Mirann ran a huge race when similar tactics were employed in the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot, staying on well to finish a close-up fourth.

He can race from just a 1 lb higher mark here and lines up over a longer trip which will arguably play even more to his strengths, so this looks a good opportunity for him to gain the big handicap success he has often promised.

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.