Our team of David Ord, Tony McFadden and John Ingles provide their thoughts on the day-three confirmations for York on Friday.
Three horses supplemented into the Nunthorpe including the two-year-olds Lady Iman and Spicy Marc. How do you see the race?
John Ingles: Nothing stands out which is in keeping with the sprint scene as a whole at the moment, so you can understand why the bookmakers think Lady Iman has an opportunity to beat her elders. But I can see Washington Heights outrunning his odds. He wasn’t far behind Mgheera and She’s Quality in the Temple Stakes and he had JM Jungle behind him in the City Walls Stakes over course and distance last month, form that’s been franked since. Track and conditions will suit therefore, and he’s going into the race in better form than when sixth last year too.
Tony McFadden: The sprint division is wide open and lacks quality, so it's easy enough to see why the lightly raced Lady Iman is proving popular. She's won four of her five starts, with the sole defeat coming over six furlongs, and given she's such a strong traveller looks likely to be suited by the test York provides. I'd rather take a chance on Night Raider at a much bigger price, however. It's possible he's not as good on turf as the all-weather, but he's had things go against him this season, including at Goodwood last time when racing on the wrong part of the track. He's very quick and could still have a big effort in him when it all clicks.
David Ord: That pair add spice to the race and you can why the Rumstar team decided to throw their hat into the ring too, given the sprint division this term is so wide open. I think Lady Iman is the more interesting of the two-year-olds, she's five pounds higher on Timeform ratings and a strong traveller who can quicken too.
However, it's been a long wait for another juvenile winner of the race and I'm draw to two of the three-year-olds. Arizona Blaze and Sayidah Dariyan were second and fourth respectively in the Commonwealth Cup and have both won since. The former looked like a Group One sprinter when winning the Sapphire Stakes and a quickly-run five furlongs here might be just what the doctor ordered for Sayidah Dariyan who will be flashing home.
Trawlerman the star turn in the Weatherbys Lonsdale Cup. What do you see as the dangers?
TM: The shorter trip and lesser stamina test of the Lonsdale Cup may help Illinois pose a sterner threat to Trawlerman than he managed in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot, where the winner stayed on relentlessly to win by seven lengths. However, even with a 3 lb penalty to contend with, Trawlerman should still take plenty of beating. That Gold Cup win may have been a career-best performance from Trawlerman, but it's not his only high-class effort as some of his form with staying superstar Kyprios reads very well.
DO: Aidan O'Brien was leaning towards running Shackleton in this when we visited him earlier in the week. It's interesting Illinois is still in there and he's entitled to get closer to the favourite than he did when beaten seven lengths in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot back to two miles and on a speed track. Sweet William is capable of getting involved but an on-song Trawlerman will be very hard to beat.
JI: You couldn’t really put a line through any of his rivals who are all getting weight from him. The obvious one is Illinois who didn’t see the Gold Cup trip out as strongly as Trawlerman but went closer back at two miles behind stablemate Scandinavia in the Goodwood Cup last time. Similar comments apply to Sweet William who was third at Goodwood and is another who’s usually thereabouts in these races, but Illinois is the more straightforward of the two and Trawlerman might find him harder to beat this time.
Wise Approach as short as 4/9 for the Gimcrack – can you see why?
JI: He’s very short but it’s not a race that’s exactly brimming with potential as far as the rest are concerned, with his closest rival on form Do Or Do Not doing a good job of collecting place money at this sort of level without really progressing. Wise Approach won well at Newbury last time, confirming that six furlongs suits him better than five, and one of the others will have to take a big step forward to get the better of him.
DO: I can. This isn't a deep renewal of the race, in fact it's below-par. He was very good in the Rose Bowl at Newbury last time and it's impossible to see Rock On Thunder reversing form given he was a widening four lengths adrift that day. Maybe Reciprocated will bounce back from his Ascot blow-out for Karl Burke but Neolithic, improved in cheekpieces, is probably the one to chase the favourite home.
TM: I suppose those looking to oppose Wise Approach might point to a defeat at York’s Dante meeting when favourite for a six-furlong novice, but he's since run two crackers to finish runner-up in the Norfolk Stakes and then decisively win a listed race at Newbury. That win at Newbury makes him the form pick on Timeform's figures, and he looks capable of even better, so it's easy enough to understand why he's a short-price favourite. There will be more interesting betting heats at the meeting, however.
Anything else catch your eye at York on Friday?
DO: I like Fifth Column in the closing Sky Bet Mile. He won a valuable heat at the July Meeting and them seemed to get unbalanced on the track when fifth behind Rhoscolyn in the Golden Mile at Goodood. There's every chance he's going to go get back on the improve switched to a conventional track at York, William Buick is already booked to ride and he looks sure to give a good account.
JI: The Convivial Maiden is always an interesting race. I hadn’t realised Whirl had run in it last year, a rare filly to do so. Kevin Ryan has had runners in the frame in each of the last three renewals and has run some good horses in it. They include future 2000 Guineas runner-up Hi Royal. He has a couple of entries this year, including newcomer Inishbeg, a Ghaiyyath half-brother to the same connections’ smart Volterra who was himself fourth on his debut in the Convivial two years ago. He could be one to keep an eye on going forward from this.
TM: Defiance is likely to be high on the shortlist for the opening Sky Bet Handicap, though he's also been given the option of another valuable handicap at Hamilton on the same day. The lightly raced Defiance has shaped well on both starts this season, making good headway into fourth on his reappearance at Epsom on Oaks day before again coming home strongly when third at Goodwood last month. There's more to come and he looks up to landing a valuable handicap.
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