Simon Holt's Glorious Goodwood day one tips: Reasons to take on Big Orange

Recommended Bets: Simon Holt

1pt e.w Qewy in 3.35 Goodwood at best-morning price - Big Orange could be worth taking on with cut in the ground and Qewy well placed to take advantage

1pt win Limato in 3.00 Goodwood at best-morning price - The step back up to seven furlongs looks ideal for this classy performer

1pt win Murad Khan in 1.50 Goodwood at best-morning price - has some good form in the book and should relish step up in distance

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Big Orange will bring the house down if he can win a third Goodwood Cup on Tuesday's opening day at one of racing's most popular Festivals.

Michael Bell's wonderfully game stayer took his form to a new level when outpointing Order Of St George in last month's Gold Cup at Royal Ascot and, raised 4lb for that thrilling success, is at least 5lb clear of the opposition here on official ratings.

On a course which has so clearly played to his strengths in the past two years, Big Orange is beyond question the horse to beat.

However, after the rains of recent days, the Goodwood meeting is set to start on good to soft ground and the likely short-priced favourite much prefers a fast surface. Looking at the weather forecast, conditions should be drying out but Big Orange has never won when the word 'soft' has appeared in the going description.

As such, a small alternative bet might be in order and, while he has plenty to find on the ratings, QEWY could be ready to run a big race.

Charlie Appleby's seven-year-old finished second to Elidor in one of the handicaps here on soft ground last year, staying-on strongly over a mile-and-three-quarters, after which he won two of three starts in Australia, as well as finishing fourth in the Melbourne Cup (Big Orange tenth) on the other occasion.

Returning after a six-month lay-off, Qewy ran an excellent race to finish fourth again in the Queen Alexandra Stakes (beaten just over three lengths by the winner Oriental Fox, with US Army Ranger narrowly ahead of him in third), and that run should have set him up perfectly for this task.

The other likely alternative to the favourite could be last year's third Sheikhzayedroad who may have found the conditions much too lively behind Big Orange in the Gold Cup.

But, since chasing home the favourite and Pallasator here 12 months ago, David Simcock's gelding has been an improved performer winning the Doncaster Cup and Long Distance Cup on Champions Day last September/October before two solid efforts at Meydan in February and March.

Earlier, ground conditions could also prove influential in a hot renewal of the Qatar Lennox Stakes in which LIMATO may relish a return to the seven-furlong trip over which he was so impressive in last season's Prix de la Foret at Chantilly.

However, Henry Candy's hugely talented five-year-old definitely prefers a quick surface and, although he has obvious credentials on his recent third in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot and second (to Harry Angel) in the July Cup, connections are likely to make a late decision over his participation.

Otherwise, it looks a difficult race to solve with confidence in this column's old ally Librisa Breeze, only a place behind Limato at Royal Ascot, tempered by a wide draw whereas last year's runner-up Home Of The Brave could be hard to catch from stall one, and the three-year-olds Spirit Of Valor (penalised but improving) and 2000 Guineas fifth Dream Castle look dangerous receiving weight.

In the opening Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap, MURAD KHAN can improve for a step up in distance to a mile-and-a-quarter.

On his first run since being gelded and hooded for the first time, Hugo Palmer's three-time winner in 2016 got his career back on track at Windsor (1m) last month and the runner-up Easy Tiger has won since.

Murad Khan is related to several winners at this trip and further, so there could easily be more to come here and some of his form last season reads really well, in particular a defeat of recent John Smith's Cup winner Ballet Concerto on soft ground at Thirsk.

Posted at 1005 BST on 31/07/17.

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