David Cleary reflects on last year's Paddock Notebook performance before highlights some of the horses he's keen to stick with as the 2026 Flat season clicks into gear.
Paddock Notebook – 2025 Review
With the Craven meeting just around the corner, it's time to look back at how last year's Paddock Notebook fared before a new season begins. And although this is essentially a case of marking my own homework, I will try and be as fair as I can and mention a few of the duds as well as the successes. For after all, in any form of horse racing analysis or tipping, being wrong comes with the territory. Being wrong less often or less expensively is the goal. Identifying what works and what doesn't helps.
Overall, Paddock Notebook in 2025 returned a healthy profit to a £1 level stake at starting price, if backing each horse each time it ran after its appearance in the column until the end of the turf Flat season. Whether that is a good measure of the value (or otherwise) of such a piece, based on the 'dark arts', is open to debate. Does anyone bet like that?
On the one hand, there would likely have come a point when one stopped backing Vantheman before he was beaten for the eighth time after appearing in the column back last April. On the other hand, running the five-race maiden Sioux Perfect in the £100k Tattersalls Somerville Auction Stakes at Newmarket in August might have appeared tilting at a windmill beforehand, a £1 staked seeming £1 thrown away.
Sioux Perfect's success at 33/1 was the longest-priced win for any of those that featured in the column and made a significant difference between a small profit and a big one over the season. Winning a maiden or a novice 'at least' was the expectation here: 'Sioux Perfect hasn't run to a particularly high level in two starts to date, but she left the distinct impression on her second outing here that she has quite a bit more to offer.'
Another big-priced win came via Time For Sandals. She appeared in the first article of the year, after her run in the seven-furlong Fred Darling, where she finished third at 14/1: '[Time For Sandals] was one of the better types in the field and shaped well for a long way, just running out of steam late on.' Dropping back to six furlongs proved the making of her and two starts later she won the Commonwealth Cup at 25/1.
Then there were those that never ran subsequently. Kenneth disappeared after finishing second at Newbury last April, though news in December that he had been gelded suggests he may yet return to the track. Warsaw wasn't seen after his run at Royal Ascot, though an entry last weekend in the Gladness suggests he will be reappearing shortly.
Kurakka made two appearances in the column, his run at the Goodwood Festival encouraging given the lack of emphasis on stamina was against him. He looked a likely sort for the Melrose or the Old Rowley. However, like many an interesting young middle-distance stayer before him, Kurakka was sold to race in Australia. He's run twice this year, narrowly beaten over nine furlongs a couple of weeks ago.
The main focus of the column, though, is on two-year-olds. Spotting potential stars in maidens and novices is its raison d'etre. By that measure, Paddock Notebook could be said to have been reasonably successful. For advertising purposes, let's focus on Gewan.
'Gewan was one of several that appealed on looks in the paddock before this novice, though very much for the future rather than the day. He's a strong colt who looked to be carrying condition and showed distinct signs of inexperience walking round, That he was able to win despite this augurs well for his prospects.'
Gewan's entry concluded: 'There was enough in his performance to think the Acomb could be a suitable next option.' Suitable indeed. Gewan won the Acomb and, after flopping at short odds in the Champagne Stakes, the Dewhurst (at 25/1) as well.
I promised some failures. Take Paddock Notebook No 8. Please.
The eight to feature that ran subsequently managed one win from 19 starts. That success came thanks to Venezuelan who won a weak handicap at Lingfield at odds of 6/5, then got turned over at 9/4-on in a virtual match at Newmarket, looking far from straightforward. A beaten favourite again at Wolverhampton on his final start, Venezuelan's good looks were presumably a factor in his making 90,000 guineas at the Autumn Sales.
Let's wish his new connections well.
The study of horse racing is an inexact science, after all.
A selection from last year's Paddock Notebook to follow in 2026
Featured in the first Paddock Notebook last year after his debut third at the Greenham meeting. Went on to win twice, including the Balmoral Handicap on Champions day. A likely contender for top handicaps around a mile (he's in the Suffolk at the Guineas meeting), and potentially something better in the second half of the campaign.
Hatour was the clear pick on looks in the fillies' maiden she contested at the Future Champions fixture, but she lacked the experience required to land a blow. She was due to run again at the final Newmarket meeting, but missed the race on account of unsuitable ground. She's very much a three year old on looks and should be winning a race or two this spring.
Into The Sky produced a freakish performance to win at 80/1 on his debut and backed that up with a second-placing in the Mill Reef back at Newbury, where he might well have won but for hanging left. Hopefully that can be put down to inexperience. He's entered in the Guineas and a return to Newbury for the Greenham seems likely, though he'll almost certainly end up as a sprinter. The Commonwealth Cup is the race to aim him at.
Joulany was beaten twice at odds on in two starts in the autumn, featuring here after a promising debut at Kempton in September. That race, over seven furlongs, as well as his outing over an extra furlong at York the following month, placed more emphasis on speed than stamina and as such wasn't ideal. Joulany is a strapping colt, entered in the Derby, and he'll leave his juvenile form well behind over middle distances this year.
Sea The Stars is just about my all-time favourite Flat racehorse and one of my favourite sires, so it's hardly surprising that a couple of his sons find their way onto this list. Maltese Cross really impressed with his physique prior to winning at Newmarket in the autumn and looked a likely sort for a Derby trial this spring. An entry in the Dante suggests connections think along the same lines.
We probably won't get rich backing Pierre Bonnard this summer and he's hardly a dark horse, clear favourite for the Derby after all, but he'd be the horse I'm most excited to see return this spring. He was a gorgeous colt to look at at two and hopefully will still be at three.
Featured post-Royal Ascot after she shaped better than the distances indicated in the Queen Mary. She won twice from three starts subsequently, including the Flying Childers. She didn't handle the track at Newmarket when beaten under a penalty in the Cornwallis. Likely to have the Nunthorpe as her big target this year.
One once from four starts at two, a novice over seven furlongs at Kempton. He was sent off favourite for a nursery at Newmarket after that but didn't handle the Dip after travelling as if on a good mark. He was gelded in the winter and should make his mark in middle-range handicaps around seven furlongs this year.
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