Tony McFadden highlights which novices have achieved the most so far and how much improvement is typically needed to win at the Cheltenham Festival.
Supreme Novices' Hurdle
Mean Timeform performance rating of last ten winners: 158
Old Park Star had created a good impression when winning his first two starts over hurdles and showed much-improved form when completing his hat-trick in the Sky Supreme Rossington Main Novices' Hurdle at Haydock in January.
He ran out an 18-length winner on that occasion - doing so in an excellent time - and earned a Timeform rating of 155p which marks him out as the clear standard setter in the novice hurdle division. Leading Irish novice Talk The Talk (148p) is the next highest rated among the Supreme entries.
Old Park Star heads into the Supreme having achieved more on form than a top-rated contender in a typical year; indeed, the last time a horse went into the Supreme with such a high rating was Altior - also trained by Nicky Henderson and also rated 155p - in 2016. Douvan, rated 156P in 2015, was the last Supreme contender rated higher.
He hasn't quite reached the average rating of a Supreme winner in the past ten years, but he has much less improvement to make than most of his rivals and his Haydock form would have been good enough to win some lesser renewals.
Mighty Park (140P) and El Cairos (133P) are two contenders with the Timeform 'large P' to signify they are capable of much better form, though Mighty Park's Festival target remains unclear.
Turners Novices' Hurdle
Mean Timeform performance rating of last ten winners: 153.4
The New Lion produced a very smart performance - and a better one than is typically required in the race - to provide Britain with its first winner of the Turners Novices' Hurdle since Willoughby Court scored in 2017.
Another British contender, No Drama This End (142p), has dominated the ante-post market for most of the winter but has recently been joined at the head of the betting by a couple of potential contenders from Ireland in Mighty Park (140P) and Talk The Talk (148p). Talk The Talk's trainer, Joseph O'Brien, told the Press Association on Monday that the Supreme remains his most likely target, however.
No Drama This End has won all three starts over hurdles this season, most notably the Grade 1 Challow at Newbury - the race used as a springboard by The New Lion last year. No Drama This End is rated only 1lb lower than The New Lion (143P) was prior to last year's Festival, but there are some Irish contenders who have achieved more on ratings so far.
Doctor Steinberg (149p) would narrowly top the ratings if coming here in preference to the Albert Bartlett, while Talk The Talk has a couple of smart pieces of form to his name. He fell at the final flight when looking likely to win the Future Champions Novice Hurdle, leaving the door open for Skylight Hustle (146p), but gained compensation in the Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle when doing well to come from off a steady pace to chin Ballyfad (144p).
Selected novice hurdle ratings:
- 155p Old Park Star
- 149p Doctor Steinberg
- 148p Talk The Talk
- 146p Skylight Hustle
- 142p No Drama This End
- 140P Mighty Park
Arkle Novices' Chase
Mean Timeform performance rating of last ten winners: 163.2
There was a thrilling finish to last year's Arkle, when Jango Baie stormed home having looked well beaten coming down the hill, but it was not a strong race in form terms. In fact, Jango Baie registered the lowest Timeform performance rating by an Arkle winner in the last decade.
The race's recent roll of honour features some top-class performers, notably the likes of Douvan, Altior and Shishkin, which has contributed to a high average performance rating. One of this year's contenders is already within touching distance of that lofty level, however, as Lulamba (162p) earned a high-class rating when comprehensively beating more experienced rivals in the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury last month. He had previously been an impressive winner of both starts in novice company, including the Grade 1 Henry VIII at Sandown.
Lulamba tops the ratings, though Romeo Coolio (159p) has also shown form verging on high-class by Timeform's reckoning. He had to work very hard to beat Kargese in a three-runner Irish Arkle, but they finished well clear of a smart handicapper in third and a good time adds some substance to the form.
Kopek des Bordes had Romeo Coolio back in third when winning the Supreme and was one the leading novice hurdlers last season. He encountered a setback after making a successful chasing debut in beginners' company at Navan in November so hasn't had the opportunity to post a big rating - he's rated 150P - but the 'large P' underlines his potential for significant improvement.
Brown Advisory Novices' Chase
Mean Timeform performance rating of last ten winners: 160
Like the Arkle, last year's Brown Advisory has been rated as one of the lesser recent renewals, for all Lecky Watson was an authoritative winner.
Kaid d'Authie (158p), who was so impressive when taking advantage of Final Demand's flop at the Dublin Racing Festival, has already achieved a higher rating than Lecky Watson did in the 2025 Brown Advisory. He's also only 2lb off the level required to win a typical edition of the Brown Advisory, so is clearly a big player on form. Romeo Coolio (159p) is rated 1lb higher so would be another with strong form claims if taking his chance here instead of in the Arkle.
The Big Westerner is only rated 146p but receives a 7lb sex allowance which can effectively be added to her figure.
Selected novice chase ratings:
- 162p Lulamba
- 159p Romeo Coolio
- 158p Kaid d'Authie
- 155p Koktail Divin
- 153p Final Demand
- 150P Kopek des Bordes
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