Our man had winners at 10/1 and 9/1 last weekend and has two more early fancies for Saturday, including one in the Betfair Hurdle.
Weekend View betting tips: Saturday February 10
1pt e.w. Kamsinas in the 3.15 Newbury at 20/1 (1/4, 1,2,3,4 William Hill, Betvictor, 888. Unibet)
1pt win Emitom in the 1.30 Newbury at 10/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair, Unibet)
The big betting race this weekend is the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury, always a well-contested handicap with a big pot – worth over £87,000 to the winner – and there were 26 runners left in at the confirmation stage on Monday.
The ground at Newbury at the time of writing is currently good, good to soft in places, but there is plenty of rain forecast in and around the area between now and Saturday (over 40mm depending at which forecast you look at), so conditions are very likely to be quite a bit more testing than the current description.
Ocastle des Mottes heads the market for the all-conquering Willie Mullins, and the French recruit may well prove well handicapped on his first start for these connections from a mark of 133, but backing him at around 5/1 isn't for me given it would be pure guesswork to translate what he achieved in France.
Iberico Lord is a different proposition, as his win in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham is some of the best form on offer, beating the likes of Lookaway, Luccia, Go Dante, Knickerbockerglory and a couple others who may reoppose on that occasion. Admittedly, his stablemate Luccia turned that form on its head at Ascot last time, but Iberico Lord shaped as though he wasn’t suited by the bigger emphasis on speed that day, and the return to likely softer ground will be in his favour; he is the horse I am most scared of.
There is only bits and pieces of 8/1 around at the moment, though, and given the competitive nature of this race, I want something with a bit more juice in their price when putting a selection up at this stage of the week.
The horse which stands out to me as a bet is the Fergal O’Brien-trained KAMSINAS, who has seemingly always been held in high regard looking at some of his starting prices, and he has made a positive start over hurdles this season.
He had some fairly useful form in bumpers and landed the odds in style on his return and hurdling debut in soft ground at Worcester in October, proving in a different league to his rivals, not needing to come off the bridle and hitting the line strong.
Kamsinas bettered that form in defeat when runner-up to Lookaway off level weights (he will be 5lb better off here) in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham next time, doing well to finish as close as he did given he was ridden more patiently than the winner, who dictated a fair pace before quickening it up decisively from two out.
He confirmed the promise of that run when going one place better in a similar event at Haydock in November, that race run at a better, more even gallop and he produced a nice change of gear when produced to lead at the third-last. Kamsinas was in full control in the latter stages of that race, pressed by the runner-up on the run-in but never looking like being beaten.
It is his latest run in the Grade 1 Formby Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree which poses more of a question mark, his finishing effort on that occasion more or less non-existent for all he moved into the race with every chance approaching two from home. Kamsinas was slightly hampered at that flight by Farren Glory who took a crashing fall, but that didn’t have a big enough effect to contribute to his tame finish.
Kamsinas clearly wasn’t at his best, as the horse he had beaten into second at Haydock previously managed to finish around 10 lengths in front of him, so for whatever reason that wasn’t his proper running. Timeform described the ground as heavy that day, which may have been a factor, but I’m inclined to think it was just a bad day at the office given how he had sluiced through soft ground on his hurdling debut (albeit against lesser opposition).
I’m of the opinion that Kamsinas needs an end-to-end gallop to be seen at his best at this trip, something he should get here, and Newbury as a track, with its long straight and galloping nature, should be ideal for him. Based on his Haydock success, which is backed up by a good Timefigure, an opening mark of 132 seems fair enough for a horse who almost certainly has more to offer now entering handicaps.
It is worth noting that novices making their handicap debut have an excellent record in the Betfair Hurdle, so I’m prepared to put a line through his Aintree run, and there is enough in his favour to get him on side for this at the current 20/1 on offer.
The Betfair Serial Winners Fund Handicap Hurdle earlier on the card at Newbury is another race I’ll be getting involved in and I’m back EMITOM to reverse November’s course and distance form with market leader Young Butler.
Emitom was smart as a novice when trained by Warren Greatrex, finishing runner-up to Champ in the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree in 2019, and he also went on to win the Grade 2 Rendlesham Hurdle at Haydock the following season before finishing fourth in the Stayers’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.
He didn’t take to fences afterwards and also lost his way over hurdles, but there have been more positive signs to glean from him since joining Alan King, making a winning start for the yard over this course and distance last season – beating a well-handicapped sort – and finishing runner-up on his other two completed starts.
There were no obvious excuses when two lengths second to Young Butler on his reappearance, looking the likeliest winner after jumping the last – hit a low of 1.56 in-running on Betfair – only to be outbattled close home.
Young Butler showed much more grit and determination than he had previously on his first start for the very promising Harry Derham, and it might be that he has rejuvenated him somewhat, but he hasn’t always been a horse to set your watch by – he still has the Timeform squiggle attached to his rating – and I need to see that sort of performance again before believing it fully.
Emitom ran no sort of race when pulled up at Haydock on his next start, but he quickly bounced back to form when runner-up to the progressive Saint Davy at Ludlow earlier this month. That form received a big boost when Saint Davy won a competitive handicap hurdle at Sandown on Saturday from a mark of 130, so as it has turned out, Emitom was up against it trying to concede 6 lb to that rival.
The pair pulled well clear of the remainder on that occasion, too, so the form has a solid look to it – the timefigure also backed up that performance – and Emitom is just 2 lb higher now. Clearly, now a 10-year-old, Emitom isn’t the force of old, but don't get it confused, he is still a useful hurdler who figures on a fair mark.
Furthermore, he has a very good record at Newbury, his form figures over this course and distance reading 112, and he also goes on any ground (handles heavy well), so the forecast rain won’t bother him one bit. Emitom is only 1 lb better off at the weights with Young Butler, but can be backed at double the price, and given that he hasn't always been at his best when fresh, I'm interested to see how this pans out now with race fitness on his side. I find it hard not to see him running a big race at a course and under conditions which will suit.
Preview posted at 1315 GMT on 06/02/2024
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