Our man looks ahead to the action at Kempton this weekend and is keeping the faith with one in the Lanzarote Hurdle.
Weekend View betting tips: Saturday January 13
1pt win Flegmatik in the 1.30 Kempton at 7/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Nemean Lion in the 2.40 Kempton at 8/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4, Paddy Power, Betfair, BetVictor)
Kempton are set to host an interesting card on Saturday, featuring the Silviniaco Conti Chase, and I hope we get to see the return of the Joseph O’Brien-trained Banbridge. I was a big fan of this horse last season and his entry on Saturday sparked interest in the Cheltenham Festival markets on Monday, now a general 14/1 chance for the Ryanair Chase (from 20s).
A sound surface is the key to him, and the weather forecast in and around Kempton this week is relatively dry, so he should get his ground, and it would be no surprise if he was sent off favourite if making his way across the Irish Sea.
The ground at the time of writing is soft, good to soft in places, so that could mean we may be looking at no worse than good to soft ground come the weekend. That will definitely suit FLEGMATIK, who holds an entry in the New Bet-In-Race With Coral Handicap Chase.
This horse hasn’t won for almost two years, but he has been consistent in that time, and his last two wins both came at this track on good to soft ground, including one over course and distance. Admittedly, those victories came from lower marks, but he has been competitive from similar to his current one, notably when beaten a neck by Our Power again over this course and distance (BHA mark 135) last season.
Flegmatik had the recently retired Frodon 11 lengths adrift in third that day, in a race that was run in at a strong pace which resulted in a solid timefigure. He had undergone a breathing operation ahead of his return at Ascot this season, and he would have likely gone close to finishing third had he completed, keeping on when unseating his rider at the last.
Flegmatik had no answer for a well-handicapped rival who was on a going day over a shorter trip at the same course on his next start, and he was far from disgraced when finishing third in another competitive handicap back at Ascot last time, just unable to live with Victtorino – a thoroughly progressive chaser – and Yeah Man.
He lost little in defeat that day, but confirmed himself in good heart, and he will race from the same mark on Saturday (137). The form he has in the book must give him an excellent chance of resuming winning ways, particularly in a race which has the potential to cut up. The return to Kempton is also a big plus for him (form figures at this course read: 31102) and, given those ahead of him in the market have question marks either regarding their jumping, the ground or whether they will run, I’m very keen to get the rock-solid Flegmatik on side at 7/1.
I also want to get involved in the Lanzarote Hurdle which features later on the card. The horse for money on Tuesday morning is Impose Toi, and it is easy to see why as he would have likely won again at Ascot just before Christmas if his jumping would have held up in the latter stages.
He was beaten by stablemate Luccia on that occasion, who had been threatening to come good, while the third and fourth are also horses to remain positive about. He has gone up 3lb for that effort, which still leaves him on a good mark, and the key to him improving further may well be stepping back up in trip. There is plenty to like about his chance but that is reflected in the market.
Therefore, I am going back in with NEMEAN LION, who I still feel is capable of better in this sphere, and the form of his fifth in the Greatwood Hurdle has been boosted numerous times since. He was selected in this column a few weeks ago and I was dumbfounded when he was declared a non-runner in the race won by Impose Toi at the eleventh hour, with connections citing ground reasons and opting to take a shot at Constitution Hill in the Christmas Hurdle just three days later instead.
As it transpired, he was also declared a non-runner that day, too, again while the ground was officially good. That is a slight concern given the drying weather, but over this longer trip you would expect connections to give him the green light to run, as he has clearly been ready to roll for a while now.
I actually think better ground will suit him, an ex-Godolphin Flat-bred horse whose sole win in that sphere came on ground Timeform described as good. His two best performances over hurdles, when winning the Premier Novices’ Hurdle at Kelso and the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Chepstow, have also come on ground that Timeform described as good to soft.
Nemean Lion has winning form over two and a quarter miles over hurdles and, given he stayed a mile and three quarters well on the Flat, he should have no problem now moving up even further in trip. There is the potential for him to even improve further for it.
Here is a recap of what I wrote about his run in the Greatwood Hurdle previously:
He travelled powerfully towards the rear and still had every chance at the top of the hill, but a less-than-fluent leap three from home and a bad mistake at the second-last more or less ended his chance. That is the worry with Nemean Lion, who is prone to the odd mistake, but he still appeals as being a well-handicapped horse from a BHA mark of 140. The form of his Welsh Champion Hurdle win, which came from 5 lb lower, isn’t working out all that badly and he travels through his races like he has an even bigger performance in the locker.
Nemean Lion was beaten half a length by Sonigino in the Greatwood, but he is 6lb better off at the weights now following his impressive win at Aintree, but that came on heavy ground, and whether Sonigino will be as effective on a sounder surface I’m not sure. So at almost double the odds, I can’t resist back Nemean Lion each way at the current 8/1.
Preview posted at 1200 GMT on 09/01/2024
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