Derby preview: Timeform data produces expecting finishing positions

Sky Bet Data Price Boosts:

Aidan O'Brien factor - Auguste Rodin, San Antonio & Adelaide River all to place (5 places) WAS 40/1, NOW 50/1

Sporting Life RequestABet - Military Order, Arrest and Auguste Rodin to finish 1st, 2nd & 3rd in any order WAS 10/1, NOW 12/1

The Wildcard - San Antonio To Place (5 Places) WAS 3/1, NOW 4/1

Maximum stake £20 - 'was' price correct at 1630 BST on 01/06/23

When much of the build up to the 2023 Epsom Derby has been centred around the storm brewing (or should that be rising?) off the track and the murky picture that race itself presents, it seems ironic that we are forecast nothing but resplendent sunshine throughout the day.

As if the day needed any other challenges, the penalty shootout victory of Manchester United in the FA Cup semi final meant the final is to be an all-Manchester affair, on a Saturday much later in the season due to the winter World Cup. A perfect storm indeed, meaning a much earlier than ideal 1.30pm start for the Epsom chapter of ‘Derby Day’.

It would have been hard to have envisage even ten years ago just how more dominant football could become in the sporting pecking order and racing, like other sports has had to give away share of media coverage at a time when other social license challenges were beginning to start up.

Not necessarily the catalyst, but at the heart of continued growth for the beautiful game has been the use of data and its ability to tell a story – before, during and after the match. Once viewed as the preserve of the geek, or those trying to suck the fun out of football, metrics such as Expected Goals (xG) and visualisation of Touch Maps are now embraced by the masses for what they are – a way to neatly summarise what many people who have seen the game ‘know’ and act as backstop for what they may have missed.

High quality data and analysis hasn’t been lacking in racing for a long time, but whereas demand and the way people want to consume it has moved on the industry hasn’t been as quick to react as it could. Being able to understand and engage with racing data is often cited as a barrier to really connecting with the sport and one that must be overcome if challenges with engagement are to be overcome.

The goal of anyone looking at a race prior to the start is usually to either forecast the winner or a horse that is likely to outrun its’ odds, whether you are enjoying the action with a betting interest or not. In many cases, forecasting is hard – usually very hard. In the must read Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, co Author Philip Tetlock applies the thinking of ancient Greek warrior poet Archilochus “The fox knows many things; the hedgehog one great thing.” to modern day forecasting.

In racing terms, a hedgehog may believe that a horse hailing from a yard in red hot form is all that matters and will act accordingly, whereas a fox will see this information as being an important but not all-encompassing variable in a much larger model. Either way, trying to solve the puzzle combined with the awe of seeing these special animals in action is for most the real allure of racing and one that keeps us coming back.

Many of us aspire to be the fox – trying to pour through the form book, look at stats and keep up to date with the latest trainer quotes and industry news but this can be overwhelming. Especially as part of something that is meant to be fun and a break from the day to day.

Is there an alternative way to present horse racing data in a way that helps us think like a fox and arrive at our own forecast, but doesn’t feel so prohibitively hard or time consuming?

Those who successfully predict the outcomes of racing on a regular basis will either by automated processes or in their head assess several key variables and weight them accordingly, to arrive at a predicted position and ‘true odds’ of that horse’s chance.

The more fox like (and usually more successful) bettor will have a vast array of these variables and will know under which conditions to place more value in some of them than others. For simplicity here, we will narrow these variables down into four basic categories:

Ability: How good has the horse shown itself to be and is it obviously open to more improvement?

Recent Form: How well has the horse been running recently, or is it coming back from a long break?

Race Conditions: How well suited to today’s race will the horse be? This includes the sub variables of going, course, distance as well as the impact of the draw and how the race might be run.

Trainer and Jockey: How well do horses from this stable tend to run and how are they running currently? Is this jockey one of the more successful riders?

Taking rich Timeform data and analysis and distilling this down into simple 0-100 numbers, we will then combine these to form an overall score and a ‘fair’ price for each horse. These can then be used by the reader to shortcut their way to their own forecast and if so inclined a selection for the race.

For those that wanting the puzzle largely ‘solved’ for them, we will then convert the overall scores into an Expected Position (xP) for each horse to help guide where each horse may finish.

So, in xP order we present the expected top 3 from 2023 Epsom Derby Field...

Military Order Expected Position 1, Expected Odds 3/1

• Overall: 90
• Ability: 89
• Recent Form: 93
• Race: 88
• Jockey and Trainer: 90

The ability score is predominately based on the Timeform rating for each horse, with some additional consideration around potential improvement. Military Order stands atop the adjusted Timeform pre-race ratings for this year’s Derby on 131p, with his win in the Lingfield Derby Trial (switched onto the All Weather due to a waterlogged track) being the most concrete piece of form. Like many in the field, after only four starts he is still open to plenty of improvement and just about shades this category.As a full brother to 2021 Derby winner Adayar and with his ability to get the Derby distance evidenced (unlike many of his rivals), he also rates strongly in the race suitability category. Everything is set in his favour being seemingly ground agnostic, a well-balanced horse and although the draw is sometimes overplayed in this race, being drawn in stall 9 will not inconvenience him.To bring up the hattrick of category toppers, he is clearly in excellent form and has proven his wellbeing on both starts this season. Prior to his Lingfield success, he’d brushed aside Exoplanet and Chesspiece who both look sure to play a factor in big races this summer.The only hole to pick is the form of the yard. Still decent by most standards, runners from Charlie Appleby’s stable haven’t been as dominant as we’ve seen previously and if it’s anything other than variance it could be a concern for some.

Arrest Expected Position 2, Expected Odds 9/2

• Overall: 89
• Ability: 87
• Recent Form: 92
• Race: 86
• Jockey and Trainer: 92

It is hard to avoid diving straight into the Frankie angle when analysing the chances of Arrest. For a more thorough analysis of his history with the Derby there is an excellent piece here, but it’s clearly an understatement to say his services in the race are a positive. Coupled with the Gosden stable, a high score for the Jockey and Trainer category is a given.The horse himself acquits himself highly in the other categories, with his impressive demolition of the Chester Vase field putting him only 3lbs behind Military Order on Timeform Ratings. Despite being under very different ground conditions, his previous form suggests a return to a quick surface won’t be an issue and with stamina assured he is another horse that has a solid profile.

Auguste Rodin Expected Position 3, Expected Odds 7/1

• Overall: 86
• Ability: 88
• Recent Form: 65
• Race: 85
• Jockey and Trainer: 98

In stark contrast to the first two in this list, Auguste Rodin brings in a much different profile. Having been the clear top performer amongst this field in his 2-year-old career, he was sent off 13/8 in the 2000 Guineas but disappointed badly. Several excuses were offered, including the officially recorded version of interference and it often pays dividend to forgive a horse at least one poor run. A string of poor runs after a break would result in a much lower recent form score, but even this will require everything from his master trainer.Peerless in the Derby itself, the form of Aidan O’Brien’s runners recently has been sizzling hot and with Ryan Moore riding as well as ever it’ll be all down to the horse himself.Impeccably bred, the race itself looks to be his optimal conditions despite him not have had chance to run over further than a mile. His win at Doncaster in October in the Group One Vertem Futurity has him only 1lb off the top of the ratings and if he is the horse that connections feel he is, he could be a risk worth taking for many.

The Wildcard

San Antonio Expected Position 7, Expected Odds 14/1

• Overall: 84
• Ability: 82
• Recent Form: 92
• Race: 82
• Jockey and Trainer: 82

For those wanting to roll the dice at bigger prices but still have the 8-time Derby winning trainer on their side, there are much riskier conveyances than San Antonio.After a relatively quiet two-year-old campaign, his two runs this season have both shown him to be ideally suited to middle distances – firstly taking his maiden at Dundalk with ease before victory at Chester in the Dee Stakes. That level of form is well below that which will be required in the Derby itself, but in a race where there isn’t a great deal between most of them at current prices he looks like the outsider to be with.Here’s hoping for a bright forecast, both on and off the track.

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