Andrew Asquith covers for Matt Brocklebank for Sunday's Value Bet and has two selections at Cheltenham on Sunday.
Value Bet Tips: Sunday November 16
1pt win Nassalam in 2.55 Cheltenham at 14/1 (bet365, Betvictor, Coral)
1pt win Castle Carrock in the 3.30 Cheltenham at 9/1 (bet365, 8/1 General)
The ground at Cheltenham will almost certainly be testing again on Sunday, perhaps holding too, and one horse who will relish those conditions is NASSALAM.
Clearly, looking at his recent form figures, he doesn’t look too inspiring, given he’s been pulled up in four of his last five starts, but baring the Gold Cup at the Cheltenham Festival, and the Grand National, the other runs have come on ground firmer than what would be ideal for him.
In that time, he’s fallen from a mark of 161, to 147, which is just 2lb higher than when he won the Welsh National in such impressive fashion. The ground on that day was treacherous, but Nassalam waded through it like a natural heavy ground performer.
It is very rare that you see handicaps, never mind a Welsh National, won is such fashion, with Nassalam always travelling well in a prominent position, and he just continued to pour it on while all of his rivals were legless in behind.
Even a couple of errors at the third-last and the last didn’t stop him galloping on strongly, having 34 lengths in hand at the line.
I didn’t actually think he shaped too badly on his return in a handicap at this course at the October meeting, either. His starting price of 66/1 told somewhat of a story, sure to be in need of the run, and the form of the Gary & Josh Moore yard since then has blossomed.
Furthermore, he is now back in blinkers, the headgear he has wore for arguably his most impressive victories, and with conditions very much in his favour, along with this longer trip, he’s of interest at a double-figure price.
The Greatwood Hurdle is another typically competitive renewal, but if there is one horse in this field that I think could be much better than his mark, it is the Alan King-trained CASTLE CARROCK.
This horse really impressed me when winning his bumper by 16 lengths at Ayr around this time last year. Admittedly, it wasn’t a strong race, but he was in a different league to his rivals, easily moving clear on the run-in while also showing signs of greenness.
He confirmed that excellent impression 10 weeks on when making a winning debut over hurdles and on his first start for Alan King in a novice hurdle at Sandown, always travelling powerfully, but really catching the eye with how he sprinted clear at the finish.
For all he lost his unbeaten record upped into Grade 2 company at Kelso next time, he still shaped well, given too much to do before making steady headway under a hands-and-heels ride.
With his sights set even higher in the Grade 1 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree when last seen, he still looked a raw horse who was learning on the job. Those sort of tests came too early in his development, but that experience won’t be lost on him in the long term, and he just strikes as a horse who will relish the demands of a strongly-run two-mile handicap.
Castle Carrock showed he handles testing conditions when winning his first start over hurdles and his strong-travelling style will allow him to be played late in the day. Alan King is in good form, too, and based on the level of both his bumper win and debut over hurdles, an opening mark of 133 could be on the lenient side.
Preview posted at 1545 GMT on 15/11/2025
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