Timeform highlight the key trends to keep in mind for the Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.
Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle
15:30 Cheltenham, Thursday
Flooring Porter (Timeform weight-adjusted rating: 173) goes for a hat-trick of wins in the Stayers’ Hurdle but the trends suggest he has no easy task in his bid to win it for a third time. It’s not that he’s too old – at the age of eight he remains within an age-range that have won nine of the last ten Stayers’ Hurdles - but unlike seven of the last ten winners he hasn’t won in the current campaign, not that that stopped him from winning last year.
This year’s favourite Blazing Khal (170p) lacks the Grade 1 victory which seven of the last ten Stayers’ Hurdle winners could boast but he’s unbeaten over hurdles. Injury has prevented him from being tested at a higher level before now and also accounts for him having run just once this season.
Chief market rivals Marie’s Rock (175) and Teahupoo (174) have also had light campaigns which mean they don’t quite tick every trend, five out of the last ten winners having run three or four times beforehand. Teahupoo won on his first try over three miles last time, but Marie’s Rock is untested at the trip so far though is bred to stay it. Gold Tweet (169+) - who along with fellow French raider Henri Le Farceur has been supplemented - is another who ticks all bar one of the boxes. He has not won a top-level hurdle, but did win the Grade 2 Cleeve Hurdle over course and distance last time on his first attempt at three miles.
But there is a contender who meets all the criteria. Joseph O’Brien’s Home By The Lee (169) outran odds of 33/1 when sixth to Flooring Porter in last year’s race but has improved further this season. In fact, he ticked off several trends in the process by winning the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown on his latest start when having Flooring Porter behind him in fourth for the second race running.
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