Ahead of the great meeting we put some of the big Cheltenham Festival questions to Timeform Jumps Editor Dan Barber.
For or against Facile Vega?
A tough one that. I’d have been keener to oppose him when he was a very short price before his Dublin Racing Festival disaster.
I now find him a very difficult horse to price up. Initially, I’d have been looking to find something each-way against him. I am very much warming to another Mullins horse in Diverge who is a possible play. There’s still that blow-out potential with Facile Vega.
El Fabiolo or Jonbon in the Sporting Life Arkle?
This is a bit like having to pick between your children! Jonbon strikes me as the more natural two miler, I think El Fabiolo is a very strong stayer at the trip as he showed in the Irish Arkle.
I'm still unsure of what to make of Jonbon’s Warwick performance, a view somewhere in the middle is probably sensible. Loads were keen to say "look at him, he’s gone!", others that it was nothing to worry about.
I think El Fabiolo has achieved more but I just sense Jonbon might be a little more ‘here and now’ and can beat him again like he did at Aintree.
Is it a case of how far for Constitution Hill?
Yes. The one day I’m not down for Racing TV or other work at Cheltenham is Tuesday and this is the one race I’m desperate to see all week.
I genuinely believe he’s the best hurdler I’ve ever seen - be it at two miles, three miles, whatever. He has a rival in State Man who in a normal year would be a very short-price favourite for a Champion Hurdle - he’s just about at the level on Timeform ratings you need to win the race.
But it's about degrees and I think Constitution Hill is a one in a million horse, while State Man is a one in 5,000.
Honeysuckle - yay or nay?
Another tough one but I think nay.
This must be one of the strongest renewals of the mares' hurdle we've seen. It's purely down to that, the level of competition, and a belief that I think there’s evidence she’s deteriorated a little more than Epatante has.
At this stage if you gave me a match bet I’d probably be going 8/11 Epatante against evens Honeysuckle.
Do both Gerri Colombe and Mighty Potter win?
I think there’s a very good chance they will. Doing our Timeform ratings meeting this week, it quickly became apparent, particularly in the Brown Advisory, that there isn’t much depth in there.
What more can Mighty Potter have done too in his division to establish himself as the clear pick? Some argue Cheltenham won’t suit him after the Supreme last season but by Gordon’s standards that was a fairly wretched week - he won a cross-country and a freakish handicap on terrible ground with Commander Of Fleet after he and Ashdale Bob broke away from the field.
It was just a below-par week for the stable last year and I think that was more salient in Mighty Potter’s defeat than any problem he had with the track.
Delta Work to go in again in the Cross-Country Chase?
I think he does and without doing the National in any great depth at all, I think there’s a real Tiger Roll possibility of a horse winning this and going on to Aintree glory.
He tried to do the double last year and the fences in Liverpool seemed to take a bit of adjusting to for him, he took a bit of time to warm up, but was right there at the second-last. I don’t think a lack of stamina did for him, just the effort of getting into the race took its toll.
I prefer him to Galvin at Cheltenham, who I think looks a bit lifeless nowadays, and Delta Work could well follow up at Aintree.
Any dangers to Shishkin?
Not if he runs his race and I suppose that’s the question. Just as many people were prepared to take one or two runs with Shishkin to conclude that was the end of him, now we're in the position of saying after one very positive run that he’s definitely turned the corner.
That’s my only niggle – I said on the Betfair podcast the way to play the Ryanair Chase might be to back Shishkin non-runner/no bet before Ascot, as if he bombed out he was unlikely to run, if anyone did that they are probably not in a bad position.
I didn’t, and it’s now down to what price do you think he is to show his true form? If he does show it, he’s better than these.
Where are you with the Stayers’ Hurdle?
Like most people, completely in the dark. I just think the two younger, improving Irish horses, three if you include Home By The Lee, are attracting a lot of attention.
But looking through their form I’m not sure it stands up. Blazing Khal hasn’t beaten a really good one yet, I have so much respect for the stable but he took five goes to win his bumper and got the better of Gelino Bello in a Grade Two at Cheltenham last December.
He then won a race he was fully entitled to first time back against inferior horses. Flooring Porter has been under a cloud and can he keep getting the run of the race at Cheltenham as he has done? Surely one year something will try and scupper him tactically.
I still retain hope that Paisley Park can run well at a big price as I’m not sure Teahupoo’s form is of a sufficiently high standard to make him just about market leader. It’s a very open race, but I think the race will suit Paisley Park more than it did last season, and he showed when he got the better of Champ at Ascot that he’s as good as ever.
Pick of the Mullins trio in the Triumph?
Lossiemouth still but the market move for Blood Destiny in the last day or so is quite compelling.
I do think the mare will be a tough nut to crack, though. She’s getting the weight and for me was unlucky when beaten by Gala Marceau at the Dublin Racing Festival. Not only was she badly hampered but she had to make her move on the outside of the field and still approaching the last looked like she might be able to carry herself to the front.
Fair play, the winner found plenty but the more accurate guide to those two might be the first meeting when Lossiemouth won by seven lengths and a bit. She’s done enough – with the allowance – to make her my pick of the Mullins trio.
Gold Cup – Will Galopin Des Champs stay?
Not strongly enough. He’ll either go through the race like the best horse in it or A Plus Tard will, but there’s finally some suggestions in the odd weather forecast that we might get rain race week.
That could have a big impact on the Gold Cup, I think that’s the race that gets changed more by the ground than any other through the week. It means the three-milers who can get away with it on good ground, the likes of One Man, Silviniaco Conti and Clan Des Obeaux from the past, are flapping late on because they don’t have the extra layer of stamina.
I’m sticking with Stattler, any rain is to his benefit. I think Galopin Des Champs is the best three-miler in the race but is he the best over three-and-a-quarter?
In fact, is he the best three-miler? On reflection, A Plus Tard’s performance in last year's Gold Cup is probably the best form in here.
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