Ben Linfoot wonders whether Luxembourg can build on his perfect juvenile season and develop into a Classic winner for Aidan O'Brien and Camelot in 2022.
That’s it, we’re done. The final Group One of the UK Flat season was won on Saturday by LUXEMBOURG and, for all the talk of worrying stable form, Aidan O’Brien ended the campaign as he started it - with another significant top-level success.
On the first Group One weekend of the season it was his Mother Earth who landed the Qipco 1000 Guineas at Newmarket, making up for his colts failings the previous day, and it’s now that thoughts turn to next year’s Guineas weekend as we wait just over six months for the next UK G1 on the level.
O’Brien’s son of Camelot is a best-price 6/1 for the 2000 Guineas on the back of his Vertem Futurity win at Doncaster, but this was a victory that didn’t quite have the wow factor. It threatened to – when he hit the front two furlongs out he looked like he might stride four or five clear – but at the line he was just two lengths ahead of four horses including 25/1 chance Hannibal Barca.
Crabbing the form on the proximity of Brian Meehan’s horse might well be unfair on the winner and the son of Zoffany, but he did come into this having only won a Salisbury novice, and there are other reasons to rein in the superlatives when it comes to Luxembourg.
Sissoko ended up being a fairly close-up second despite being keen early, Bayside Boy is beginning to look like a horse that could find trouble on an empty track and Royal Lodge winner Royal Patronage simply didn’t run his race as he finished an eased-up last. They didn’t go much of a gallop early and the four horses he beat pretty much finished in a line.
So I have my doubts over this form. Perhaps Luxembourg should’ve lengthened clear the way this all panned out. Maybe that’s unfair on a horse that is now three from three having just won a Group One by one-and-three-quarter lengths. You can argue he’s still running a bit green, that he idled, and that he had the race in the bag from a long way out. It’s all true.
But after seeing him in action at Doncaster I’m less enamoured about his Guineas prospects than I was before. Those Godolphin colts could just have too much zip. The Cazoo Derby is a different kettle of fish but there are different questions to answer there…
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Derby favourite… but Epsom hasn’t been kind to the Camelots
Luxembourg became just the third son or daughter of Camelot to win a UK and Ireland Group One on Saturday from over 40 goes and there have been some high-profile disappointments.
Top of that list are Sir Dragonet and English King, two Camelot colts who went into Epsom with a strong chance, according to the betting, only to fluff their lines on the big day. Mythical and Youth Spirit were other sons of the sire well beaten in the Derby and the Camelot collective suggest his progeny aren’t training on as well as Coolmore would like.
Camelot’s daughters Santa Barbara and Pink Dogwood were both beaten in the Oaks at Epsom having gone off at 3/1 or shorter, too, with his two Classic winners, Even So (10/1, 2020 Irish Oaks) and Latrobe (14/1, 2018 Irish Derby), doing so a few weeks’ later at the Curragh when market expectation wasn’t quite as strong.
Luxembourg looks like a horse that should train on. He also looks like a horse that should get better as he goes up in trip. He’s raw at two, there is no doubt, but that doesn’t guarantee improvement next year.
There are question marks when it comes to his pedigree, especially when you consider his half-siblings Sense Of Style and Leo De Fury hardly got better with age either.
But Luxembourg’s certainly a fascinating project and a really important one for O’Brien. He’s his best two-year-old colt amongst what looks a below-average crop and also his main weapon in the battle to fend off Godolphin for another year…
Great year for Appleby… but Aidan still comes out on top
Charlie Appleby had a shocker on Saturday. Goldspur was sent off 7/5 favourite and beaten, Noble Truth was sent off 5/4 favourite and beaten and Siskany went off the 4/7 favourite and failed to get the job done. Appleby 0 from 3, and it’s not too often you can say that.
The shocker headline is of course tongue in cheek. Appleby has had a wonderful year and although he couldn’t muster a challenger in the Vertem Futurity Trophy he goes into the winter with Native Trail and Coroebus, who will at least be in the top three of the 2000 Guineas betting following their victories on Future Champions Day.
It has been a year in which Godolphin v Coolmore became a real battle again, but when you tot up the Group One winners tally for the UK Flat season it’s still O’Brien that is king of the castle - Luxembourg was his seventh Group One winner in the UK this year, which puts him ahead of Appleby on five and John Gosden on four.
But can he remain top of the G1 pile in the UK in 2022? It’s likely much will depend on the fate of Project Luxembourg, a horse who has racked up a perfect record as a juvenile despite being very much a work in progress.