Ben Linfoot Saturday pre-race analysis | Bay the prime suspect in the LGC

Some Line Of Duty fans might have been disappointed with the unmasking of the criminal mastermind behind the OCG, but the LGC – the London Gold Cup – rarely disappoints and the acronym could easily stand for Lurking Group Class.

Let’s look at the evidence.

• In 2010 Harry Dunlop’s Green Moon made all to win by four lengths under Jamie Spencer. He went on to win the Group One Turnbull Stakes in Australia for Robert Hickmott, before winning the Melbourne Cup.
• In 2011 Roger Charlton’s Al Kazeem defied a mark of 95 on his fourth racecourse start winning readily under Steve Drowne. He went and won four Group Ones, the pick of which was a two-length Coral-Eclipse demolition job over Declaration Of War.
• In 2012 the winner Expense Claim never won another race but the fifth home, Thomas Chippendale, won at the next two Royal Ascots – landing the Group Two King Edward VII Stakes in 2012 and the same-level Hardwicke Stakes a year later.
• In 2013 Sir Michael Stoute’s Hillstar was sent off the odds-on favourite for this famous handicap but could only manage second to High Troja. However, he went and won a couple of races at Group Two and Three level before landing the Grade One Canadian International at Woodbine the following year.
• In 2014 Stoute did manage to snare the LGC with Cannock Chase, a horse who won the Tercentenary Stakes at Royal Ascot the following month. He also won the Canadian International at Woodbine the following year on from Newbury.
• In 2015 Charlton followed up his Al Kazeem heroics with Time Test who went into every notebook in the land after weaving his way through to snaffle the LGC. Duly sent off 15/8 favourite for the Tercentenary at Royal Ascot, he won by over three lengths but, while he won three more group races after that, he never did win at the top level.
• By 2016 Charlton was now churning out LGC’s with regularity and Imperial Aviator stormed home at Newbury by over four lengths - but that was to be as good as it got for him. Not so Prince Of Arran in sixth, a horse who went and won the Lexus Stakes and Geelong Cup in Australia, where he was also placed in three Melbourne Cups.
• In 2017 Roger Varian won the Newbury race with Defoe, a horse who won five of his next six races. His career high, though, came after that sequence when he won the Group One Coronation Cup at Epsom in 2019. Back in fourth at Newbury was subsequent three-time group winner Century Dream.
• In 2018 Communique became the lowest-rated horse to win the LGC since High Troja when he beat stablemate Poet’s Prince by a length and a quarter off a mark of 84. He progressed to a good level, however, winning two Group Twos subsequently, including a Newmarket defeat of the aforementioned Defoe.
• In 2019 Charlton was at it again, this time with Headman. He beat Sinjaari, the future John Smith’s Cup winner, by a head, and went onto to win two Group Twos on his next two starts, both in France. Like Al Kazeem he came unstuck in the Irish Champion Stakes, finishing fifth behind Magical.

With no race in 2020 due to the pandemic the London Gold Cup makes a welcome return on Saturday with 11 due to go to post for the £50,000 handicap. Roger Charlton isn’t making it easy by not having a runner and they can’t all be group horses – so who are the prime suspects this time around?

The Pedigree Picks

Dubawi Sands

The Defoe connections of Roger Varian and Sheikh Mohhammed Obaid Al Maktoum team up with DUBAWI SANDS a colt by… Dubawi, as you might guess, and he’s a half-brother to 2000 Guineas winner Galileo Gold, as well.

He didn’t have to improve on his form to land a small-field novice race at Ripon on April 24, but he had shown promise on his previous start when second to Mashoor at Nottingham in a novice where the front three pulled clear.

The Varian team is in great nick and this fellow is an interesting contender indeed making his handicap debut off a mark of 86.

King Frankel

Mark Johnston’s KING FRANKEL also stands out from a bloodstock perspective. Again, no extra marks for guessing the sire, but he’s a full brother to Craven winner Eminent with his dam, You’ll Be Mine, a half-sister to Group One winner Diamondsandrubies.

This colt has racked up his experience in maidens, running four times in such company before getting off the mark in a three-runner race at Pontefract on April 28, making all to win by 32 lengths.

He’s quite hard to assess, but he makes his handicap bow off a rating of 82 and that might be lenient, certainly when you look at his Goodwood form behind the potentially very good Juan De Montalban who is rated 91 now.

The Form Fancies

River Alwen

Top weight RIVER ALWEN has earned a rating of 101 and if you’re talking form how about his four-and-a-quarter length fourth to subsequent Dante winner Hurricane Lane over the course and distance on April 16?

That stands out now and the second home, Maximal, boosted it with his Dee Stakes second to El Drama at Chester, too, while River Alwen bolstered the race himself when he won a Newmarket handicap off 96 on Guineas weekend.

He’s up 5lb for that and it might be difficult giving weight away to so many unexposed types, but he’s the one that has already been there and done it.

Tamborrada

Charlie Appleby has a good line on River Alwen thanks to Hurricane Lane and he runs another unbeaten three-year-old here in the shape of TAMBORRADA.

The son of Dubawi went three from three at Doncaster last time where he eventually got the better of a duel with Annandale – a horse who was on a hat-trick and has subsequently franked the form with another victory at Nottingham.

Tamborrada’s Town Moor heist looks strong handicap form, and while he went up 8lb to 99 for winning by a neck you certainly wouldn’t rule him out of this on the basis of his mark.

The Flies In The Ointment

Highland Rocker

Putting a number on John & Thady Gosden’s HIGHLAND ROCKER can’t have been easy. The dashing grey bolted up at Ripon in a novice last time when sprinting away from a small field off a slow early gallop.

The runner-up, Silver Gun, was three-and-a-half lengths behind and that gap could have been bigger, and HR is a 76-rated horse now after franking the form with a win in a Yarmouth handicap off 71.

It’s a bit of a finger in the air job, but the handicapper plumped for 91 – which looks fair enough on his Inigo Jones form, with that horse beating Highland Rocker at Chelmsford before going on to be third to Derby fancy Mohaafeth at Newmarket.

Bay Bridge

Inigo Jones is trained by Sir Michael Stoute and he runs BAY BRIDGE here, a horse who didn’t show much in two starts at two but who burst onto the scene on his three-year-old comeback.

The son of New Bay ran respectably enough in two juvenile novice events at Yarmouth and Kempton, but he improved a bundle for stepping up in trip to 10 furlongs at Newcastle in April.

He quickened nicely that day and beat third home Khezaana by over seven lengths, a filly who franked the form with a comfortable Beverley handicap win off 75 on Tuesday.

Bay Bridge has been allotted a mark of 90 and he’s another in the ‘could be anything’ brigade.

THE VERDICT

A cracking renewal of an always-informative contest. Any of the above six could be the one that develops into a group horse and there may be even more than one.

For Saturday, and the future, I like the look of BAY BRIDGE who really took the eye with an ultra-comfortable success on the Newcastle Tapeta, his hands and heels win looking all the better now Khezaana has given it a boost.

Stoute has him entered up in the Group Two King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot, so he really could tick the ‘improving at a rate of knots could be a group horse’ box that you simply have to look for in the best handicap you’re likely to see this side of the Sky Bet Ebor.

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