Ebor Festival antepost tips
1pt e.w. Sonnyboyliston in Sky Bet Ebor at 20/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/4 1,2,3,4)
There were some very credible Sky Bet Ebor credentials laid down over the past week, including at the Qatar Goodwood Festival.
Chief among them arguably the Andrew Balding-trained Tribal Craft’s staying-on second to Arc de Triomphe-bound Wonderful Tonight in the Group Two Lillie Langtry Stakes. She beat Urban Artist – herself narrowly denied off a mark of 99 in the preceding race at Goodwood on Saturday – at York over the Ebor’s mile and three-quarter course earlier in the season and there was loads to like about her performance with the Knavesmire race in mind.
Above everything, she will be well-handicapped going into that now, the Ebor weights having already been published on July 21, at which point Tribal Craft had a mark of 104. Having just split rivals rated 117 and 110 off level weights at Goodwood, she’s in for a bit of a hike so, like Urban Artist as well no doubt, will be officially well-in come the big race on August 21.
Admittedly, Balding’s patiently-ridden mare was a shade flattered by picking off beaten rivals late in the piece, with Wonderful Tonight clearly not doing a huge amount in front through the final furlong either, but she’s a clear improver this year, for a yard that can do little wrong at present, has strong course form and will be ahead of her future mark.
However, soft ground does look a bit of a pre-requisite if we’re going to see Tribal Craft perform at her very best and the same goes for Urban Artist too.
On top of that, there has been a distinct freshness angle with a number of recent Ebor winners and it could pay not to react quite so hastily to these recent trials in testing conditions. Half of the past 10 Ebor winners hadn’t run since at least the month of June prior to winning, with Litigant not running since the previous April before defying a mammoth layoff under Oisin Murphy in 2015.
If we’re going to see a repeat of that ilk then Mt Leinster and Hamish look two of the more likely candidates, although Humanitarian, who has raced just once since June 2019, has to be of great interest if lining up for John and Thady Gosden.
Willie Mullins’ Mt Leinster hasn’t been sighted since bolting up in the Amateur Riders’ Derby at the Curragh last October and he’s gone particularly well fresh in the past, while Hamish (also entered in the Lonsdale Cup at the same meeting) won twice over the Ebor course and distance as a three-year-old in 2019 and only raced once last term, when fourth of nine in the Hardwicke Stakes.
Current market leader Live Your Dream probably wants the ground on top if he’s to give trainer Saeed bin Suroor a third victory in the race after All The Good (2008) and Willie Foe (2012) struck for the Godolphin trainer, while Yorkshire-born Haggas has other serious contenders in Ilaraab, Roberto Escobarr and Pablo Escobarr.
The latter ran in the John Smith’s Silver Cup Stakes at York on July 10 and wasn’t at all disgraced after racing freely in the early stages. Hukum ended up winning quite well from Outbox, but it was a typically trappy Group Three in which they didn’t go very quickly initially, and few got into it from off the pace.
Roger Varian’s 2020 Ebor hero Fujaira Prince shaped very well in third but less than a length behind him at the line was SONNYBOYLISTON and Johnny Murtagh’s horse will be 6lb better off if they both line up in the Ebor.
That first look around the place is going to have done Sonnyboyliston the world of good and the contrasting way an Ebor is likely to be run – i.e. a breakneck gallop from the outset – is going to play far more to his strengths.
He’s only ever run in three handicaps and has won two of them, the first of which resulted in a short-head, level-weights defeat of subsequent Group One winner Thundering Nights over 10 furlongs at the Curragh last summer.
He went on to defy a 13lb higher mark with a scintillating, four and a quarter-length success in first-time cheekpieces in a Premier Handicap over the same course on Irish Champions Weekend, and he’s been mixing in pattern company ever since.
The very important factor is that he’s carried on improving, finishing third behind Japan and Trueshan in the Ormonde at Chester in May before winning over the extended mile and a half in a Listed event at Limerick this June.
The York trial was his first attempt at the Ebor trip and on that evidence I’ve no doubts he’ll stay it well enough on decent ground, especially if ridden patiently with the leaders coming back to him late on. It’s also quite significant he’s gone without the cheekpieces so far this year and it will be really interesting to see if the headgear returns later this month.
Sonnyboyliston had an Irish rating of 112 this time last year so getting into an Ebor off 108 looks like a very decent piece of preparation and placement from Murtagh – who won the race with Mutual Regard who was rated 106 and also easing from pattern class in 2014 – and at 20/1 he represents the standout value at this point.
Published at 1600 BST on 01/08/21
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