Following 3/1 and 9/5 winners in the NFL Divisional Round, Ross Williams takes a look at the NFC Title game that pits the Los Angeles Rams against their divisional rivals, the San Francisco 49ers.
NFL betting tips: NFC Championship
2pts Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at Evens (General)
1pt George Kittle (49ers) to score a touchdown at 5/2 (Spread Ex)
1pt Cooper Kupp (Rams) 100+ receiving yards and a touchdown at 13/8 (Sky Bet)
Can the Rams break the hoodoo? We’re about to find out.
In other circumstances, the sheer star power of the Los Angeles roster would be enough to create a near-unanimous prediction in this one, but there’s no getting away from the fact that the Niners have had Sean McVey’s number in recent years.
Despite largely playing second-fiddle in the NFC West divisional standings, San Francisco have won six straight games over the Rams.
It’s a narrative that will dominate the pre-game coverage, but it’s not insurmountable for Los Angeles. The streak is going to be broken eventually, and there’s an argument that beating a team three times in a season is just as tricky as snapping a six-game slide that has lasted three seasons.
Kick-off time: 23:30 GMT, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports NFL
Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) Evens | San Francisco 49ers (+3.5) 5/6
As ever, the quarterbacks are going to be vital in this rivalry game and it’s highly likely that the better player on the day will guide his team to victory. Jimmy Garoppolo has performed well against the Rams this season, as LA’s fragility over the middle of the field plays into his strengths.
With the likes of Jalen Ramsey lined up in the Rams’ secondary, Jimmy won’t be throwing the ball deep or to the sidelines often on Sunday, so expect lots of work for George Kittle in the centre of the field.
This tactic has proven effective in the two previous games this season, but this NFC title game may have a different dynamic.
Garoppolo is yet to throw a touchdown pass in the playoffs this year and he’s given up six interceptions in his last four outings. Plus, there’s a possibility that the 49ers will be without left tackle Trent Williams.
Without Williams, it could be open season for Aaron Donald and one of the fiercest defensive fronts in football, and even if Williams plays, he’s highly unlikely to be 100% and able to protect his quarterback to the best of his ability.
This dramatically reduces the potential of the Niners’ offence and puts a heightened emphasis on Garoppolo playing a perfect game.
The former Patriot is capable of stepping up to the occasion and I do believe – along with his star tight end – he can keep the game as entertaining as most are expecting it to be.
However, the volume of his mistakes of late are a concern and, as Los Angeles proved in the final seconds of their win last week, Matt Stafford and co. are too explosive to be given chances down the stretch.
In both previous games this season, MVP candidate Cooper Kupp picked up 100 receiving yards and his remarkable form is showing few signs of slowing down.
If the 49ers couldn’t find an answer for the star receiver in games they won, I fail to see how they will be able to contain him on Sunday when they may well be up against it.
As for the man giving him the ball, last week’s victory – drama included – will have done wonders for Matt Stafford, though admittedly not his blood pressure. He’s no longer the nearly man, and he’s in prime position to make the most of the opportunity he’s always craved.
A clear round for Matt Stafford with minimal fuss should be the difference in this one, as he has the talent around him that can get the job done.
Paired with a resurgent Odell Beckham Jr, I expect Kupp to go off once more, guiding the Rams to a home Super Bowl in the very same stadium a fortnight later.
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams best bets
- 2pts Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at Evens (General)
- 1pt George Kittle (49ers) to score a touchdown at 5/2 (Spread Ex)
- 1pt Cooper Kupp (Rams) 100+ receiving yards and a touchdown at 13/8 (Sky Bet)
Odds correct as of 1130 GMT (29/01/22)
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