Tom Carnduff steps in for Matt Temple-Marsh and picks out his value touchdown scorers for Week 17 of the NFL season.
NFL betting tips: Week 17
2pts Nick Chubb to score anytime in Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers at 8/11 (General)
1pt Dawson Knox to score anytime in Atlanta Falcons @ Buffalo Bills at 23/10 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Ryan Tannehill to score anytime in Miami Dolphins @ Tennessee Titans at 17/4 (Unibet)
Miami Dolphins @ Tennessee Titans
- When: Sunday at 18:00 GMT
- TV: NFL Red Zone on Sky Sports Mix
- Best bet: Ryan Tannehill to score anytime at 17/4 (Unibet)
While Miami's defence against the rush is pretty good, I can't turn down a best price of 17/4 on Ryan Tannehill to score anytime after originally spotting the general odds of 7/2.
The Titans QB has seven rushing touchdowns so far this season and has seen 3+ rushing attempts in five of his last six with 4+ in four of those. He’s averaged 25.75 rushing yards across his last four games with two touchdowns.
We know how much the Titans like to run with the ball and they have adjusted well to losing Derrick Henry in Week 8. It put added emphasis on D'Onta Foreman to deliver - which he has in terms of attempts - but Tannehill's rushing yards have increased following the absence of Henry.
At the odds available, this is a bet too big to ignore given his recent form.
Atlanta Falcons @ Buffalo Bills
- When: Sunday at 18:00 GMT
- TV: NFL Red Zone on Sky Sports Mix
- Best bet: Dawson Knox to score anytime at 23/10 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
The Buffalo Bills are given a 14-point head start on the handicap for this one and the points line sitting at 44.5 shows that this is expected to be a comfortable home win.
We should see the Bills finding the end zone on a number of occasions and I like the 23/10 available for Dawson Knox to score a touchdown. He's been in great form in recent weeks.
The TE only saw two receptions against New England but still scored while he had at least four and 30+ receiving yards in the two games prior. Across 13 games this season, Knox has nine touchdowns.
In a game that's expected to be very one-sided, it's worth siding with Knox as a value option.
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
- When: Tuesday at 01:15 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
- Best bet: Nick Chubb to score anytime at 8/11 (General)
This isn't the biggest priced selection of course but it's one that has a really strong chance given the contrasting forms of both sides when it comes to running the ball.
The Steelers have allowed 100+ rushing yards in each of their last eight games with 200+ in two of their last three. The Bengals also had 198 so we can expect to see a lot of Nick Chubb in this game.
He rushed for 126 yards and a touchdown in the narrow defeat to Green Bay last time out and this looks like a game set up for the RB to post another big tally.
The general price of 8/11 looks good enough to target and anything above that is a bonus.
Odds correct at 1630 GMT (31/12/21)
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