Ross Williams picks out three best bets for the Christmas Day game between Green Bay Packers and Cleveland Browns in the NFL.
NFL betting tips: Week 16
2pts Green Bay Packers (-7.5) to win at Evens (SBK)
2pts Over 46 total match points at 19/20 (Coral)
1pt Allen Lazard anytime touchdown scorer at 3/1 (bet365)
With their playoff hopes slipping away, the Cleveland Browns will be hoping for a late Christmas gift on the 25th of December, but it’ll have to come from one of the most inhospitable places in the National Football League.
The Browns need a win to keep pace with their AFC North rivals but, after being decimated by injuries and Covid-19, their recent form doesn’t provide much confidence.
Cleveland could have Baker Mayfield back under centre for this one – which is naturally a boost – but Baker’s play has been up and down at best this season due to his lingering injuries and there’s little faith in the former Oklahoma Sooner keeping pace with the MVP candidate across from him.
This match-up, at home, will almost certainly put a smile on the face of Aaron Rodgers, despite his team having to compete on a short week.
Kick-off time: 21:30 GMT, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports NFL
Green Bay Packers 2/7 | Cleveland Browns 27/10
The Packers’ home form under Matt LaFleur is nothing short of incredible and now their NFC playoff berth is already secured, the pressure is somewhat off Green Bay inside the final three weeks of the regular season.
Make no mistake though, there’s still massive value in finishing the season as the #1 seed and Green Bay will be keen on cementing Lambeau Field’s status as the NFL’s ultimate fortress, going into January.
With Cleveland’s line-up still uncertain, it’s hard to see past a comfortable two-touchdown victory for the Packers with the form Rodgers is in at present.
Despite an injury, #12 has thrown 13 touchdowns over the past four games, with no interceptions, and he’s just one score away from surpassing his mentor Brett Favre to become the Packers’ all-time touchdown leader.
That should happen on Christmas Day, and I like the chance of ALLEN LAZARD to be the man who catches it.
Davante Adams is a walking touchdown of course, but Green Bay’s great strength is utilising the rest of their receivers when Adams is drawing double and sometimes even triple coverages. Last week it was Marquez Valdes-Scantling who stepped up as Adams’ foil, to the tune of 98 yards and a touchdown.
MVS is on the Covid list for this one however, so that WR2 responsibility should fall to Allen Lazard, a dependable target that Rodgers has kept around for quite a while now.
Against a depleted Cleveland secondary, I’d expect Lazard to receive an uplift of targets and there’s no reason at all why he shouldn’t draw attention in the redzone.
Cleveland Browns @ Green Bay Packers best bets
- 2pts Green Bay Packers (-7.5) to win at Evens (SBK)
- 2pts Over 46 total match points at 19/20 (Coral)
- 1pt Allen Lazard anytime touchdown scorer at 3/1 (bet365)
Odds correct at 1630 GMT (24/12/21)
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