Following 3/1 and 9/5 winners during the NFL Divisional Round, Ross Williams casts his eye over the AFC Championship game, as the Chiefs and Bengals battle it out for a Super Bowl berth.
NFL betting tips: AFC Championship
2pts Kansas City Chiefs (-7) at 20/21 (General)
1.5pts Tee Higgins (Bengals) to score a touchdown at 19/10 (General)
Everyone’s a Cincinnati fan on Sunday.
The Bengals have been on a run nothing short of remarkable over the past couple of weeks, picking up their first playoff victory in 31 years before knocking off the #1 seed Titans.
Joe Burrow and his guys have to be every neutral fan’s team as we head into the final four, but I have a strong suspicion that Sunday will signal the end of the line for the Bengals, at least for this year.
Wins over Tennessee and Las Vegas have been impressive, but Kansas City look a whole different kettle of fish, following their win over Buffalo in one of the NFL’s greatest ever playoff contests a week ago.
Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports NFL
Kansas City Chiefs (-7) 10/11 | Cincinnati Bengals (+7) 10/11
The bookmakers favour the Chiefs by a touchdown on Sunday, but I have my doubts whether Cincinnati can stay within the seven points. It would be easy to look back at the week 17 matchup between these two sides and point to Cincinnati’s victory as justification for a close game, but it’s extremely tough to ignore the gaping hole in the Bengals’ offensive line that Tennessee exploited time and time again last weekend.
Back in that week 17 game, Ja’Marr Chase scored three touchdowns and tormented the Chiefs all afternoon, but it’s going to be extremely difficult for Joe Burrow to get his star receiver the ball on Sunday. The Bengals’ quarterback took a mammoth nine sacks last week, and goes into the AFC title game as the most-sacked player in history to have reached this late stage of the season.
The Chiefs’ defensive front will view this as an open invitation to feast, with Chris Jones one to watch on the Kansas City line.
Plus, I expect the Chiefs to follow last week’s game-plan of double-covering their opponents’ number one receiver. Chase will likely attract the same attention as Stefon Diggs, which resulted in a near-complete shutdown of the elite wide-out.
This inevitably creates opportunities for Cincy’s other receiving threats however, and I’m sure Tee Higgins will licking his lips at the prospect of replicating the 200-yard performance of Buffalo’s Gabriel Davis a week ago. I fancy him to get into the end-zone on Sunday, but nevertheless, I can’t visualise a scenario in which the Bengals keep pace with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Cincinnati have scored 45 points so far this post-season, whereas the Chiefs put up 42 points just last week, and looked like they could have kept on scoring long into the night.
The trio of Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are on fire – as they so often are in late January – and a third-straight Super Bowl appearance looks more than likely.
The Chiefs are just too efficient on the offensive side of the ball and if we take last week’s performances as a benchmark, this one could get ugly if Cincinnati aren’t extremely careful.
Against one of the better defences in the league, Kansas City scored points on over 72% of their drives last weekend.
Meanwhile, Tennessee failed to put up points on eight drives against the Bengals, in a game that they lost by just three points, as time expired.
If the Bengals provide Patrick Mahomes with that vast amount of opportunity on Sunday, he’ll simply make them pay, as those eight scoreless drives will quickly turn into 30 extra points.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs best bets
- 2pts Kansas City Chiefs (-7) at 20/21 (General)
- 1.5pts Tee Higgins (Bengals) to score a touchdown at 19/10 (General)
Odds correct as of 1100 GMT (29/01/22)
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